You know the old phrase…” Strangers are the friends you haven’t met yet?” Well, in fantasy football land, I think there’s a similar idiom. Busts are often the breakouts that fail to fire. Before players are labeled as “busts” at the conclusion of the season (or early-to-middle, depending on just how bad the player was) there’s usually a legitimate case as to why they are being drafted so highly. The case for unthinkingly drafting “upside” is often accompanied by a significant amount of risk that some drafters overlook entirely. I tend to also agree with this upside-driven approach – if you ain’t first, you’re last, Ricky Bobby – but it’s still important to recognize the risk and sheer bust potential with certain players heading into the 2023 fantasy football season.
In this article, I’ll break down what a bust looks like at each position while calling out which players come with the most red flags that have me overly concerned about their bust potential in 2023. And although I am not an injury expert, I will be coming to the table with some injury notes on players. Because many busts fail to perform due to injuries, and it’s not something you should just totally ignore. Especially with the increase in data on injuries from several different experts.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
You’ll also notice that several of these bust players differ from the players listed in my “Players to Avoid” article. That is not by mistake. Because not all players I’m shying away from will be busts. Specifically, with certain positions, as I’ll touch on soon, some players may finish exactly where their ADPs are. But that’s not how I am playing the game. I don’t want players to meet expectations, I want them to exceed expectations. And at the same time, I want to circumvent the players that may drastically fail to meet their expectations. These are the fantasy football busts. Gabe Davis wasn’t a bust last year because he played like trash. He was the WR27. He scored the same points per game as Zay Jones…who many look back on and are fond of from last season.
You know the old phrase…” Strangers are the friends you haven’t met yet?” Well, in fantasy football land, I think there’s a similar idiom. Busts are often the breakouts that fail to fire. Before players are labeled as “busts” at the conclusion of the season (or early-to-middle, depending on just how bad the player was) there’s usually a legitimate case as to why they are being drafted so highly. The case for unthinkingly drafting “upside” is often accompanied by a significant amount of risk that some drafters overlook entirely. I tend to also agree with this upside-driven approach – if you ain’t first, you’re last, Ricky Bobby – but it’s still important to recognize the risk and sheer bust potential with certain players heading into the 2023 fantasy football season.
In this article, I’ll break down what a bust looks like at each position while calling out which players come with the most red flags that have me overly concerned about their bust potential in 2023. And although I am not an injury expert, I will be coming to the table with some injury notes on players. Because many busts fail to perform due to injuries, and it’s not something you should just totally ignore. Especially with the increase in data on injuries from several different experts.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
You’ll also notice that several of these bust players differ from the players listed in my “Players to Avoid” article. That is not by mistake. Because not all players I’m shying away from will be busts. Specifically, with certain positions, as I’ll touch on soon, some players may finish exactly where their ADPs are. But that’s not how I am playing the game. I don’t want players to meet expectations, I want them to exceed expectations. And at the same time, I want to circumvent the players that may drastically fail to meet their expectations. These are the fantasy football busts. Gabe Davis wasn’t a bust last year because he played like trash. He was the WR27. He scored the same points per game as Zay Jones…who many look back on and are fond of from last season.
Davis was a bust because the fantasy football drafting complex ballooned his ADP to a point where there was little chance for him to exceed his price tag. It’s situations like this that you need to stay clear of in 2023. Because when it comes to identifying busts in fantasy football, it’s all about the price you pay and the opportunity cost.
Fantasy Football Busts (2023)
QUARTERBACKS
Quarterbacks are always a position that I struggle to identify busts with because my quarterback rankings line up closely with ECR and ADP. I am not debating about QB1 versus QB2. The focus should be more on where these quarterbacks are being drafted in relation to the other skill positions at RB/WR. For example, Patrick Mahomes‘ ADP is the QB1 right between WR7 and RB6. His overall ECR ranking is between RB12 and WR13. The opportunity cost to draft Mahomes as the QB1 overall tends to be in the middle to back end RB1/WR1, high-end RB2/WR2 range; players that are starters that you draft through Rounds 2 and 3. And as you go down the QB rankings, the better value and opportunity cost you get on signal-callers.
That’s why my 2023 quarterback draft strategy follows a pseudo-late-round QB approach. I want an elite fantasy quarterback at the best price. That helps me capture a ton of upside while also limiting bust potential with my selections. I’ve got seven quarterbacks in my Tier 1 and just want to draft the QB that goes latest. And this means I don’t get Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts in Round 3 as the “big-3”. I avoid them because I like the QB prices of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Justin Fields better. But just because I avoid them doesn’t mean I recognize them as busts. That’s the key difference I want to make between these quarterbacks and the ones that I highlighted in my Players to Avoid piece. It’s why Trevor Lawrence isn’t on this list. I recognize he’s appropriately valued as the QB8 – finished QB8 last season – but meeting those expectations or just slightly surpassing them isn’t what I am looking for. I also recognize that if you select Lawrence and he meets expectations, you won’t look back on your team and blame T-Law for being a bust.
Looking back at last year’s fantasy QB busts: Justin Herbert (QB3), Lamar Jackson (QB4), Kyler Murray (QB5), Tom Brady (QB8), Aaron Rodgers (QB9), Dak Prescott (QB10), Russell Wilson (QB11), Matthew Stafford (QB12), Trey Lance (QB13) and Derek Carr (QB14).
First off, I honestly didn’t remember there were this many bad QB picks inside the top-15. It was only after the first 15 quarterbacks – where players are essentially bust-proof because of low cost – that drafters accrued quarterback value. Drafting QBs right after the elite tier did not work. Ergo, stay out of the middle.
The major theme with a lot of these QB busts is injuries. Whether it be to the quarterback themselves or to their supporting cast (pass-catchers and OL). Obviously, predicting injuries is easier said than done. But if you want to avoid drafting QB busts, it needs to be part of your drafting equation.
The second is over-evaluating non-elite rushing QBs. If you are aggressively drafting a fantasy QB, there must be an upside case when it comes to their rushing. Without it, their chances of busting increase substantially. This is what got people in trouble with Brady last season. They fell in love with the TD efficiency and yardage totals from 2021 but overlooked that any step back in efficiency would nuke his fantasy appeal.
And this was true across the board. If you just copy-paste the TD passing leaders from 2021 – Brady, Stafford, Herbert, Mahomes, Prescott, Rodgers – five of the six were busts.
In the case of Wilson, it’s just a reminder that new situations, coaches, receivers, etc., also increase the chance that a player busts. The uncertainty is often viewed as untapped potential (which can be true), but the risk heightens substantially when it is already baked into an inflated ADP.
Considering all these factors, here are the quarterbacks with the highest chance of busting in 2023.
Dak Prescott (DAL) – (QB10 ECR | QB10 ADP)
Superflex ADP: 2oth overall (FFPC), 15.5 overall (Underdog)
Dak Prescott was the QB13 in points per game last season (17.8), and he enters the year after losing his offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore. Moore, known for his aggressive pace and play calling, will be replaced by a combination of HC Mike McCarthy and OC Brian Schottenheimer. The “dynamic duo” has been vocal about establishing the run, even at the cost of *checks notes* scoring less.
McCarthy said earlier this offseason, “Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up. But I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. Think when you’re a coordinator, you know, but you’re in charge of the offense. Being a head coach and being a play-caller, you’re a little more in tune. “I don’t desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league. I want to be the No. 1 team in the league with the number of wins and the championship. And if we gotta give up some production and take care of the ball better to get that, then that’s what we’ll do.” Woof.
Not off to a great start backing this Cowboys offense. And Prescott’s lack of efficient play last season creates more concerns about him making up ground without passing volume to back him up. Prescott was 24th in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket and 34th in passer rating from 10-19 yards downfield. Two sticky stats that Prescott ranked poorly in. He also totaled his lowest passing yards per game (238.8) since 2017. But his final counting stats looked okay due to his above-average TD rate of 5.8 percent, which was higher than his career average (5.1). Remember how I said you shouldn’t be super bullish on players with high passing TD totals from the year before? From Week 7 onward – when Prescott returned from injury – Dak was tied for second in passing TDs (23). The passing TDs are going to regress negatively after Dallas finished with the No. 1 red-zone offense last season. Coaching shows up the most when the field shrinks in the red zone. Just ask the Patriots from 2022. Or the Giants from the year before. Joe Judge was literally at his worst.
All in all, Prescott was QB12 in expected points per game. But his rushing was horrible at just 15.2 rushing yards per game last season. He finished as a QB1 (top-12) in fewer than half of his games. Worse than Geno Smith, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, and Justin Herbert.
Is veteran Brandin Cooks that much of a difference-maker to vault Prescott into consistent top-10 status?
Prescott posted just an 18 percent top-six weekly finish rate last season. That ranked 17th last season. Worse than Russell Wilson and Jared Goff. Carson Wentz had more top-six finishes than Prescott last season (three vs. two).
And to add literal insult to injury, you can’t ignore that Prescott has missed games. Last three seasons, he has played just one full season.
The move with Dallas in fantasy football is to draft Tony Pollard and the DALLAS DST.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – (QB11 ECR | QB11 ADP)
Superflex ADP: 25th overall (FFPC), 12.1 overall (Underdog)
There’s no ignoring the elephant in the room with Tua Tagovailoa’s injury risks heading into the 2023 season. He sustained multiple concussions last season, with him not fully clearing the concussion protocol until the end of January. And that was despite his last game being played on Christmas 2022. The Dolphins quarterback reportedly considered retirement this offseason, but ultimately, he plans on playing. Tagovailoa has tried to “bulk up” in the offseason to brace for additional hits, but only time will tell how long that will keep him upright. The Dolphins’ offensive line is below average – 20th-ranked per PFF – with their best offensive lineman, tackle Terron Armstead, often injured himself. Armstead recently suffered an injury during Miami’s training camp. Austin Jackson barely played last year after being placed on IR very early on. Guard Liam Eichenberg has struggled for two years as PFF’s fourth-lowest graded guard among 85 qualifiers. All three are projected starters. Not ideal.
And injuries aside, I am not convinced that Tagovailoa has the perceived elite fantasy upside you want to draft in this middle tier as the QB10. When he was healthy, and everything was going his way, he was averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game (QB7). But again, he offered zero value as a rusher. He totaled just six rushing yards per game (70 total yards in 12 games). And as the QB7…he was passing TDs at a 6.3 percent clip (nearly two TDs per game). That tied Patrick Mahomes for the highest TD rate in the league. And it’s a number that’s likely to regress over a larger sample size. Case in point, his 25 passing TDs were five TDs over expectation – the most among all passers in 2022.
If everything goes right for Tagovailoa, he’s a small win. That’s not enough for me to be a buyer, given his additional risk.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) – (QB15 ECR | QB17 ADP)
Superflex ADP: 33rd overall (FFPC), 27th overall (Underdog)
Will the New York Jets landing spot for Aaron Rodgers unlock his fantasy football ceiling? Consider me skeptical because I am not sure how much fantasy upside the 39-year-old has left. Last season, he finished as a top-12 quarterback…twice. He had zero spike weeks with zero top-six finishes. Rodgers hasn’t passed for 300 yards since Week 14 of the 2021 season. Zach Wilson had just as many top-12 finishes. So did Mike White. Woof.
So, in a brand-new situation, I find it hard to buy Rodgers at his QB15 price tag. Consider that the majority of QBs with the highest weekly bust rates last season — Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson – were ALL playing on new teams.
Factor in the Jets’ weakness across the offensive line – offensive tackles are a big question mark as PFF’s 23rd-ranked unit and their underwhelming performance has been a pressure point during training camp – and I see no advantage in drafting Rodgers as a high-end QB2.
At this point in his career, he is adding zero value with his legs to bolster his fantasy production. He totaled less than 100 rushing yards total last season.
Rodgers is also going dangerously high in redraft leagues with an ADP of QB12 between ESPN and Yahoo. Stay far far away. The Jets have the league’s most-difficult schedule through the first 6 weeks of the season.
Derek Carr (NO) – (QB20 ECR | QB19 ADP)
Superflex ADP: 42nd overall (FFPC), 36th overall (Underdog)
Derek Carr is going too late in normal 1QB leagues to be a potential bust candidate. But the price you must pay for a mid-quarterback with Carr’s archetype in the 2QB Superflex formats has me beyond out on him. Carr started and played 15 games for the Raiders in 2022, finishing as the QB24 in points per game (15.5) and QB15 overall through Week 15. He threw multiple touchdowns in 10 of his 15 games played and finished 14th in passing EPA. But he threw for over 300 yards just twice. Carr also posted his worst PFF passing grade since his rookie year (65.4) as he struggled immensely from a clean pocket. His passing grade when not pressured ranked 34th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks.
Considering Carr has only finished inside the top-10 fantasy QBs ONCE during his nine-year career, his mediocrity is not worth paying a premium for in the Superflex format. Carr has one top-5 weekly finish since 2019. And he scored a rushing TD in that game.
Even if the Saints “appear” like an upgraded landing spot — Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston combined for three top-12 finishes over 16 games played as the starters in New Orleans — losing Davante Adams doesn’t help Carr’s case for boosted efficiency numbers. A brand-new environment increases the likelihood of an immobile Carr being a total bust in 2023, and the risk is just not necessary given the surplus of QBs you can draft after him, even in the 2QB/Superflex format.
Per FantasyPros consensus projections, he should be drafted much closer to the range of QBs like Kenny Pickett, Matthew Stafford, and Jordan Love. Anthony Richarson is projected to out-score the veteran because of the rushing yardage the rookie adds.
Carr ain’t it fam.
Kyler Murray (ARI) – (QB23 ECR | QB23 ADP)
Superflex ADP: 70.1 overall (FFPC), 55 overall (Underdog)
Kyler Murray checks off the boxes of a certified bust at the quarterback position in 2023. He is coming off a major injury, which is slated to impact his availability in 2023. His injury was a torn ACL in December, which makes his timetable to return sooner rather than later very unlikely. One must also consider that Murray won’t be able to use his legs as a rusher to the extent that he did prior to the torn ACL.
And we can’t overlook that the Cardinals are a total dumpster fire who are in the driver’s seat to hold the No. 1 overall pick in 2024. They have no incentive to rush their quarterback back into game action.
But despite all these obvious red flags, Murray is still drafted with formidable draft capital (Round 5) on Underdog and Round 6 in the FFPC. With total games played a driver for selecting Superflex QBs in this range, Murray hardly fits the bill over guys like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Mac Jones.
He’s up 15 spots since the initial release of his busts article, with reports more positive about his quick return to the starting lineup. Still, I am not optimistic about a Week 1 return or Murray playing at the same rushing level post-ACL injury. Injuries create busts for quarterbacks, so I’d rather spend my draft capital on the aforementioned quarterback group.
Bryce Young (CAR) – (QB24 ECR | QB19 ADP)
Bryce Young is going WAY too high in redraft formats on sites like Sleeper. He’s a rookie quarterback that doesn’t offer a ton of value with his legs, in an offense that does not have much to work from a weapons perspective. Considering the “sharps” between ECR and best ball ADP are way under his QB19 ADP, you need to fade this Young price. Two tough divisional matchups at the Atlanta Falcons and home versus the New Orleans Saints are hardly plus spots where you can have confidence drafting/starting Young. The Panthers have the 8th-most difficult schedule to start the year through the first 9 weeks.
PRICE CHECK
Anthony Richardson (IND) (QB16 ECR | QB14 ADP)
Superflex ADP: 35.2 overall (FFPC), 21.2 overall (Underdog)
It’s the wild west when it comes to the price tag on rookie Anthony Richardson. Some 1QB formats have him outside the top-12 entirely, while other “sharper” platforms have him dialed in as the QB11. In some redraft Superflex formats, he gets drafted between Rounds 2 and 3. It makes pushing the button on him that much more difficult because it feels risky drafting a rookie quarterback that high. But is it too risky? I’m not overly convinced. At least when it comes to his mobility and rushing.
At Florida, Richardson averaged 60 rushing yards per game. Also, Richardson’s extremely low pressure-to-sack rate (sub-10%, first in the 2023 QB Class) further highlights his off-script playmaking.
And if you just look back at first-round rookie QBs that offered value with their legs, their production matched where Richardson is being drafted in some more aggressive draft rooms. The points per game marks ranged between 17-19-point averages which have been the QB15-QB10 range over the past two seasons. That’s considering the rookie years of Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, Trey Lance, and Lamar Jackson.
- 2021: Justin Fields Year 1: When Fields started rushing (Week 6), he was a top-10 fantasy QB in four of his last five games played. He averaged 222 passing yards per game (18.2 ppg).
- 2021: Trey Lance played in three games with a 50-plus snap share. 54 rushing yards per game. (18 ppg).
- 2020: Jalen Hurts Year 1: Three full games played as a rookie: Fantasy QB1 (top-12) in all three games averaging 282 passing yards per game (27.2 ppg)
- 2019: Kyler Murray Year 1: Murray was the QB12 (18.6 ppg) as a rookie, third in carries, and second in rushing yards. QB7 overall. 11th in the top-six finisher rate.
- 2019: Daniel Jones Year 1: 3rd-highest boom rate among all QBs. 15th in points per game (17.5).
- 2018: Josh Allen Year 1: QB19 ppg (17.3), 21st overall, 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards. Last six games: 24.2 points per game. 207 yards per game, but 5 total rushing TDs.
- 2018: Lamar Jackson Year 1: Nearly 80 rushing yards per game after taking over as the starter. 18.6 points per game.
At any price outside the top-15 QBs, Richardson is a no-brainer selection. Especially in 1QB formats where you can access the waiver wire. In the 10-12 range, I think it’s still acceptable to draft him specifically in 1QB formats.
But once/if we start to see him get steamed consistently inside the top-10 QBs in 1QB formats or top-20 overall as he does on Underdog Superflex drafts, I am likely going to be priced out. Too many certified studs at RB/WR to pass up on despite Richardson’s allure as a rusher.
Keep in mind that a 17-19-point average is essentially the top scorers at RB/WR in half-PPR. But in PPR – the MAJOR difference here – all top-12 WRs traditionally fall into this range. For RBs, it’s closer to the top eight at the position. Keep that in mind in all Superflex drafts that RB/WRs are much more desirable in PPR formats than in half-PPR where drafting QBs becomes even more integral.
Based on Richardson’s current ADP, I’d highly recommend drafting him as a late-round sleeper fantasy QB. He’s led the Colts in 1st-team reps over Gardner Minshew and has been named the Day 1 starter. Draft him with confidence as a potential league winner in redraft formats. His ADP in home leagues is outside the top-100 overall picks.
SUPERFLEX PRICE CHECK
Because you always want to draft at the best price.
FFPC:
We see the first major tier gap in QB ADP after Round 3 in FFPC Superflex formats. We go from a tier consisting of Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Anthony Richardson and Russell Wilson in Round 3 to Round 4-5, which features Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, Matthew Stafford, Jordan Love, Bryce Young and Brock Purdy. In Round 6, you can snag C.J. Stroud, who is sneakily underrated in Superflex formats for how late he is drafted. Then it’s not till the middle of Round 8 that there are guys like Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, Kyler Murray, Mac Jones and Ryan Tannehill readily available. Round 9-10 trickles in the last projected starters between Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Then there’s a gap of unknown upside QBs between Jacoby Brissett, Trey Lance, Mike White, Will Levis and Kyle Trask. But based on the most recent news Howell is the clear-cut starter, making Brissett nothing more than an “injury-away” quarterback play. Lance is behind Sam Darnold on the 49ers depth chart. Levis is competing with Willis for the No. 2 job in Tennessee behind Tannehill. Trask is still behind Mayfield as Bucs QB1. I’d rather take shots on Colt McCoy, Aidan O’Connell (this year’s Brock Purdy), Malik Cunnigham or Clayton Tune.
Underdog:
The popular best ball platform is similar to FFPC but with a few differences. Note the half-PPR scoring format versus the FFPC’s full-PPR (also tight end premium with more points awarded for passing yards). Richardson goes higher at the end of Round 2. Cousins is a mid-second-rounder. Goff, Wilson, and Carr are all Round 3 picks. Pickett is available in Round 5, where Murray, Purdy and Young are also selected. Stroud falls to Round 6. From Rounda 7-8 is the same group of QBs. Rounds 9- plus are also similar.
RUNNING BACKS
Running back busts are much easier to identify than quarterbacks. There are plenty of offensive situations and player takes that go into evaluating running backs in fantasy football, creating a wide draft pricing market at the position. There are a lot of RBs I am much lower on versus the market and vice-versa. The coined “RB Dead Zone” looks a little bit different than it has in years past, with drafters acknowledging how risky RBs that pop in projected volume tend to be. They are being drafted later, with WRs taking precedence over them in the early and middle rounds. But the “dead zone” still exists because RB2s must come off the board at some point, even if it’s later than in the past. Typically, it’s after the first two rounds that your risk of drafting a “dead zone back” increases substantially.
Looking back at the 2022 season, the busts are obvious to point out. Jonathan Taylor (RB1), Najee Harris (RB6), D’Andre Swift (RB8), Alvin Kamara (RB10), Javonte Williams (RB14), Ezekiel Elliott (RB15), Cam Akers (RB18), Elijah Mitchell (RB20), J.K. Dobbins (RB23), A.J. Dillon (RB24), Antonio Gibson (RB25), Damien Harris (RB26), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB27), Chase Edmonds (RB28), Kareem Hunt (RB32), Melvin Gordon (RB38), Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB41) and James Robinson (RB42).
Obviously, injuries played a major role in the many running backs failing to meet expectations. It’s something that we can’t always easily predict, but it needs to be part of your analysis.
The RB Dead Zone took more lives as 10 of the busts I listed were selected between RBs 14-28. Just another reason to proceed with caution in selecting RBs in this range instead of WRs. But the other takeaway I got was drafters overvaluing roles for certain players – specifically when it comes to red zone usage. That’s how I missed on Swift, who fell victim to Jamaal Williams being the Lions’ goal-line touchdown machine. I also noticed that real-life RB2s would easily become busts if they played in below-average offenses. Were we really surprised that Dillon and Hunt underwhelmed as No.2s on their respective offenses? Technically, Dillon did meet his ADP – drafted as the RB24 and finished as the RB25 – but that was more of him just playing enough games and him running hot with TDs at the end of the season. Considering the lack of hype surrounding their respective offenses before the year, maybe we shouldn’t have been so high on them. It’s also part of the reason Melvin Gordon flamed out, although the entire Denver Broncos offense playing as badly as they did was very unexpected.
Lastly comes running back roles. This is where fantasy drafters get into the most trouble with RBs. This happened to me last season with Akers. I was so fixated on his “role” that I forgot to take a step back and acknowledge his downside if the Rams were to take a step back on offense. When the sole reason for taking a running back early is hyper-focused on offense, workload/volume, and team environment, it’s a risky proposition. It’s part of the reason why guys like Harris, Elliott, Edwards-Helaire, and Edmonds failed to hit. Harris was propped up with crazy volume that would be tough to replicate from his rookie season. Zeke showed serious signs of slowing down in 2021 but was the “starter” on a high-powered offense. Edwards-Helaire was inefficient and lost his job outright despite 1st-round draft capital. And Edmonds got paid, despite never being a true featured back.
This last point is key. You cannot prioritize running backs on offenses that have not yet proven to be above average while treading lightly on running backs that don’t have a lot of job security. With running backs, ask yourself: What would it take for RB “X” to lose the starting job? If Kareem Hunt or Leonard Fournette, (insert another dusty free agent running back here) scares you as competition threats, you better temper expectations on that particular player.
Considering all these factors, here are the running backs with the highest chance of busting in 2023.
Josh Jacobs (LV) – (RB9 ECR | RB9 ADP)
I hate to be this guy, but somebody must bring up the point. Josh Jacobs finished first in touches last season. Holding this accolade is great the year that it happens, but dear lord does the history of RBs after leading the NFL touches create major concern for Jacobs after his breakout season.
Leading the NFL in touches is essentially the kiss of death for running backs the following year. The results are in the table below. To summarize quickly, only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5. The other seven running backs were essentially all season-long busts for one reason or another. Many of them got hurt, and the ones that stayed healthy underwhelmed dramatically.
| Year | Player (Age) | Touches | Following Year | RB finish following year |
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs (24) | 393 | 2023 | RB?? |
| 2021 | Najee Harris (23) | 381 | 2022 | RB14 |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry (26) | 397 | 2021 | RB14 |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey (23) | 403 | 2020 | RB53 |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott (23) | 381 | 2019 | RB4 |
| 2017 | Le’Veon Bell (25) | 406 | 2018 | DNP |
| 2016 | David Johnson (24) | 373 | 2017 | RB118 |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson (30) | 357 | 2016 | RB126 |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray (26) | 449 | 2015 | RB17 |
| 2013 | LeSean McCoy (25) | 366 | 2014 | RB12 |
| 2012 | Arian Foster (26) | 391 | 2013 | RB44 |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew (26) | 386 | 2012 | RB53 |
| 2010 | Arian Foster (24) | 393 | 2011 | RB4 |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson (23) | 408 | 2010 | RB6 |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson (23) | 384 | 2009 | RB2 |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson+ (28) | 375 | 2008 | RB16 |
| 2006 | Larry Johnson (26) | 457 | 2007 | RB17 |
| 2005 | Tiki Barber (30) | 411 | 2006 | RB7 |
| 2004 | Curtis Martin+ (31) | 412 | 2005 | RB28 |
| 2003 | Ricky Williams (26) | 442 | 2004 | Retired |
| 2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson+ (23) | 451 | 2003 | RB2 |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson+ (22) | 398 | 2002 | RB2 |
Historically speaking, the odds are not stacked in Jacobs’ favor to return fantasy RB1 value in 2023. And the concerns grow when you look at his outlook with the 2023 Raiders. The team has a new quarterback under center with Jimmy Garoppolo, which casts doubts on how effective the offense will be. The Raiders offensive line overachieved last season and should take a step back in 2023 based on their current personnel. There are more pass-catchers added to the team outside Davante Adams that could hinder Jacobs’ receptions and target totals from 2022. Then consider Jacobs’ current status with the team – he’s holding out because he doesn’t want to play on the franchise tag – and there are just too many red flags to confidently push the draft button on Jacobs. Again, his main appeal last year was that he was a touch monster as a rusher and receiver. And that looks like it should be the same case in 2023 as the Raiders added nobody to their backfield this offseason.
It’s still the same supporting cast of Ameer Abdullah, Brandon Bolden, and Zamir White. But McDaniels has been notorious for never featuring rookie running backs, so it’s not too surprising that neither sniffed the field at all in 2022. And making bets solely on workload projections is often what leads to drafting busts, as I have alluded to in the introduction.
And now rumors are swirling that Jacobs could be traded, with the Broncos and Cheifs surfacing as potential trade partners.
There’s also a chance that Las Vegas will add a free agent RB amid the Jacobs situation. Leonard Fournette has obvious ties to former Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, who has recently become part of the team’s ownership.
In Jacobs’ draft range, I’d much prefer Tony Pollard.
Kenneth Walker (SEA) – (RB17 ECR | RB16 ADP)
Despite his impressive performance in 2022 and his current expert consensus ranking (ECR) as the RB17, there are reasons to consider Kenneth Walker overrated for the upcoming 2023 fantasy season.
In 2022, Walker emerged as a valuable fantasy asset, finishing as the RB9 in points per game and the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny‘s injury. His increased workload and production during this period were a boon for fantasy managers who drafted him late. However, it’s important to consider the circumstances surrounding his success. He had zero competition and benefited significantly from volume to boost his numbers.
While Walker demonstrated his ability as a rusher, he underwhelmed as a receiver. His limited involvement in the passing game is a concern, as fantasy points in point-per-reception (PPR) formats heavily rely on receptions. Walker’s deficiency in this area could limit his overall fantasy value. And the offensive environment doesn’t lend itself to Walker seeing a ton of targets. The team added a third WR in the draft. And the offense finished with the sixth-lowest RB target share last season.
Despite his notable rushing performances, Walker had a low rushing success rate, ranking second-to-last among rushers with at least 100 carries. This raises questions about his efficiency and consistency as a runner. Fantasy managers rely on reliability and productivity from their running backs, and Walker’s struggles in this area are a cause for concern. Per FantasyPros boom-or-bust report, Walker owned the second-highest bust rate (29 percent) among RBs inside the top 20 last season.
The addition of Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 draft adds another layer of uncertainty to Walker’s fantasy outlook. Charbonnet brings an impressive skill set, excelling as a receiver and displaying high efficiency as a rusher. The former UCLA running back posted the fifth-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. He also finished with the highest positive run rate (57 percent) and lowest bust rate (four percent) among drafted running backs. With Charbonnet likely to earn playing time and potentially cut into Walker’s touches, there is a legitimate concern about the second-year back’s workhorse upside. KW3 finished with the fourth-highest red-zone rush share last season (80 percent) but scored only two rushing TD as Seattle struggled to convert in the red zone (sixth-worst). It’s possible that Charbonnet sees an expanded role as a goal-line rusher for Seattle to improve in this area of the field. As a freshman at Michigan, Charbonnet scored 11 rushing TDs from the red zone while competing for touches with future NFL running back Hassan Haskins.
Considering these factors, fantasy managers should be cautious when evaluating Kenneth Walker as the RB16. While he showcased his explosiveness and ability to handle a heavy workload in 2022 – although he did miss two games, dealt with a sports hernia early on and has picked up a new groin injury this offseason – concerns about his receiving skills, low rushing success rate, and the presence of Zach Charbonnet suggest that Walker may not be the workhorse many hope for in the 2023 season.
I think Walker is a much better play in best ball than in traditional redraft formats, where you won’t feel the bust games nearly as badly. Because his explosive skill set definitely lends itself to large spike weeks that can be massive in a one-week sample size. He finished 12th in the top-24 fantasy RB finisher rate in 2022 (64%).
With Walker’s ADP declining more than a full round since June, I’ve actually found myself more open to selecting him. Again, when prices move on players, you need to alter expectations. Because if Walker stays healthy, he’s probably going to finish as back-end RB1, high-end RB2. I’d still bet he finished somewhere in the 255-touch range (achieved with just 15 touches per game, very close to his FantasyPros’ projection of 257) and that volume locks him in as a top-20 fantasy RB. He averaged 17 touches per game in 15 games played last season after starting the year in a committee with Rashaad Penny. Every running back who earned 255 touches last season finished as a top-20 fantasy RB.
However, I still issue that you should proceed with caution because I don’t believe that the ceiling case is there for Walker if he isn’t gobbling the majority of high-value touches (goal-line, receptions, etc.) in his backfield/offense. Think he’s leaning more toward the “floor” play versus an actual bust play with his declining best ball ADP. But it just might be a bumpy ride given the circumstances I’ve laid out. And his redraft ADP remains high on Yahoo and Sleeper (RB16, 38th overall). It was 29th overall when I wrote about Walker back at the start of June.
Specifically in Walker’s draft range, I’d much prefer going with another position and scooping up running back values elsewhere like Rachaad White, James Conner or Cam Akers.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) – (RB22 ECR | RB19 ADP)
While Dameon Pierce had a promising rookie season in 2022 and currently holds an ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) as the RB20, there are factors to consider that may suggest he is overrated for the 2023 fantasy season.
The Texans have a new coaching staff in place, which adds an element of uncertainty to Pierce’s role in the offense. With the arrival of Devin Singletary, who presents a credible threat to Pierce’s workload, it’s unclear how the backfield distribution will unfold. Pierce’s status as a bell cow and his involvement as a receiver are both up in the air, making it difficult to project consistent fantasy production. A lack of receiving is particularly problematic should the Texans find themselves trailing in many of their games. Ultimately, I’m not afraid of missing out on a two-down grinder back for the Houston Texans.
Pierce’s success in 2022 was largely predicated on the volume of carries he received. However, as the season progressed, he showed signs of breaking down and eventually suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Relying solely on volume as the main source of fantasy production can be risky, especially if Pierce’s workload is not guaranteed or if he faces durability issues.
The addition of Devin Singletary to the Texans’ backfield further clouds Pierce’s fantasy outlook. While Singletary may not completely supplant Pierce as the team’s lead rusher, his presence and potential involvement in the passing game could limit his opportunities and hinder his fantasy value. Singletary is better than any other RB Pierce was competing with last season in Houston between JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone, and Dare Ogunbowale.
And Singletary has shown that he can carry large amounts of volume at the NFL level after finishing last season 15th in opportunity share (59 percent) despite the presence of second-round rookie James Cook. Pierce earned a 60 percent opportunity share last season. Singletary also finished with a career-high PFF rushing grade in 2022 (85.1, 10th), two slots higher than Pierce (84.8, 12th)
Furthermore, Singletary’s pass-blocking abilities also add another dimension to his potential role, potentially affecting Pierce’s playing time on passing downs.
The ex-Bills RB has caught at least 43 balls and earned at least 53 targets over the past three seasons. He has also never played fewer than 57% of his team’s offensive snaps over his four-year career.
I’d also be hard-pressed to not bring up the record of running backs in the Shanahan/49ers system with former 49ers staffer Bobby Slowik taking over as the Texans offensive coordinator. You never want to draft the first guy based on ADP.
- 2022: Elijah Mitchell drafted RB1. Christian McCaffrey RB1.
- 2021: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Elijah Mitchell RB1.
- 2020: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Jeff Wilson Jr. RB1.
- 2019: Tevin Coleman drafted RB1, Matt Breida drafted RB2. Raheem Mostert RB1.
- 2018: Jerick McKinnon drafted RB1, Alfred Morris drafted RB2. Matt Breida RB1.
- 2017: Carlos Hyde drafted RB1. Hyde RB1.
We saw something similar play out in Miami last offseason, with Shanahan disciple Mike McDaniel casting off Chase Edmonds as the first Dolphins RB drafted in fantasy.
Pierce was selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. And unfortunately, history has not been kind to RBs with Pierce’s rookie-year profile. The list of Day 3 rookie RBs that rushed for 900-plus yards but were limited to fewer than 200 receiving yards/30 receptions includes Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Elijah Mitchell, Zac Stacy, Alfred Morris, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, and Ronald Moore. The vast majority of them failed to live up to their rookie-year expectations.
Considering these factors, fantasy managers should approach Dameon Pierce with caution. While he showed promise in his rookie season, the uncertainty surrounding his role/upside in a below-average Texans’ offense, the potential competition from Devin Singletary, and concerns about his reliance on volume and durability raise doubts about his ability to deliver consistent fantasy production.
I’m also terrified of Pierce coming out of the gates cold. He’s got a rookie QB, so this offense is bound to go through its lumps early on. The Texans open on the road as 10-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens. Woof. Factor in that the Texans have already lost two offensive linemen to injuries — OT Tytus Howard and C Scott Quessenberry – and it’s not hard to find the potential issues here.
If you want him, you can probably just trade for him on the cheap after Week 1.
Pierce has fallen in best ball ADP (as RBs tend to do), but his ADP is stagnant in redraft ADP (44th overall, RB19).
In Pierce’s draft range, I’d much rather prefer Rachaad White, Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Jerry Jeudy, Christian Watson or Calvin Ridley.
Alexander Mattison (MIN) – (RB19 ECR | RB20 ADP)
Alexander Mattison smashed in most games that Dalvin Cook missed from 2020-2021. The Vikings RB2 posted five games with at least 23 touches over that stretch, including two games with 32 touches when Cook was sidelined. He averaged 23.7 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game in those contests. The problem in 2022 was that Mattison never got the opportunity to carve out a bell cow role because Cook stayed healthy for the entire season. It was also his first season playing under new head coach, Kevin O’Connell.
Aside from the occasional goal-line touch, Mattison operated strictly as RB2 for Minnesota. And that hurt Mattison’s chances of boosting his stock in free agency as he settled in on returning to his old team on a 2-year, $7MM contract with $6.35MM guaranteed. This may seem like a decent financial commitment, but don’t be overly swayed by the numbers. Chase Edmonds signed a $12.1MM contract with $6.1MM guaranteed last season with the Dolphins. Kenyan Drake signed a $11MM contract with $8.5 MM guaranteed in 2021 with the Raiders. Both were colossal busts.
Mattison was at least efficient in 2022 when he carried the ball, finishing with a career-high 84.2 PFF rushing grade which ranked 15th among 61 running backs with at least 70 carries in 2022. Still, his 74 carries represented a career-low.
And although he’s never been a featured back for an entire season — the glimpses of him in a full-time role as a Viking shed some light on his potential upside should he ascend to RB1 status. Unfortunately, this has caused his price to increase rapidly.
Dalvin Cook has been released, suggesting the job is Mattison’s to lose. Currently, it’s Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, and Kene Nwangwu behind him on the depth chart. So far through training camp, none of them have been overly impressive, but Chandler did flash in the team’s preseason opener.
The Athletic reports that it’s between Chandler and Nwangwu as the No. 2 as they offer the most differing skill sets from Mattison, with speed at the forefront. But the report also states that it would not be surprising if the Vikings were to add a talented RB in free agency. Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has obvious ties to the Browns, which could connect them to Kareem Hunt. Hunt visited the Vikings this offseason.
Still, there are risks involved in selecting Mattison at the high end of the RB2 range in 2023 as there’s a lot of projection with him as the team’s featured back for an entire season. That’s something he has never done. He’s never actually played more than 50 percent of his team’s offensive snaps in back-to-back games.
Drafting players simply on the situation and “role” tends to not work favorably in the long run. Remember, nobody ever vied for Mattison to get touches over Cook at any point during the last four years. And if there was ever a year to do so, it likely would have been last season, considering Cook ranked last in rushing EPA and percentage of rushes for zero or negative yardage among all ball carriers. He graded 34th out of 38 qualifying RBs in PFF rushing grade. In yet, Mattison could barely sniff the field, topping out at 43 percent snap share in Week 5 versus the Bears. In fact, the only two games that Mattison saw increased playing times were versus the Chicago Bears – the team that earned the NFL’s worst record in 2022.
Mattison has always been the inferior back. So, although he’s no longer the most inferior back on the Vikings roster, that doesn’t mean he is an RB to get overly excited about for fantasy football. There are a lot of scenarios where he doesn’t live up to expectations, and I am not paying the back-end RB2 price tag to find out.
Miles Sanders (CAR) – (RB18 ECR | RB19 ADP)
Miles Sanders posted a 31 percent bust rate in 2022, which was the highest among all RBs inside the top-24 finishers last season – tied with A.J. Dillon and Jerick McKinnon. It’s a pretty glaring number considering Sanders had the ideal setup running behind an elite offensive line when the team was always ahead. He likely won’t experience as many positive game scripts in Carolina, which makes his increase in receiving critical to avoid becoming the next free-agent running back bust in 2023. Sanders might not be a colossal bust based on his projected volume, but he hardly profiles as a league-winning RB that you will regret not drafting in fantasy football. Considering I am in lock-step with his ECR ranking and ADP, I am probably only taking him if he falls in drafts.
And to add literal insult to injury…Sanders has been dealing with a lingering groin injury all offseason. Considering Sanders is being drafted for a projected “featured” role and has never played a full season until last year – missed 4.5 games per year from 2020-2021 – the dude is checking off all the WRONG boxes. At this point, there are so many other RBs I feel better about drafting LATER – Rachaad White, James Conner – than Sanders. And I am pretty high on his backup, Chuba Hubbard.
D’Andre Swift (PHI) – (RB30 ECR | RB24 ADP)
D’Andre Swift finds himself in a new situation after being traded from the Lions to the Philadelphia Eagles. While his efficiency in 2022 was impressive, his injury history and lack of projected usage in the passing game may temper expectations for his fantasy output in 2023. He struggled to find the end zone and didn’t receive the featured role in Detroit’s backfield. Now in Philadelphia, Swift “should” benefit from a change in scenery and the opportunity for more involvement in the offense. However, he will have to compete with Rashaad Penny for touches, who has shown himself to be a solid rusher in his own right.
Additionally, the Eagles ranked last in RB target share in 2022 (12 percent), which could limit Swift’s value as a receiver. Despite the uncertainties, Swift’s talent is undeniable, and he should be productive on a per-touch basis in 2023. Swift managed to rank fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game, and 19th in yards after contact per attempt.
However, you should be aware of his injury history – averages three missed games per year – and the potential for limited receiving work in the Eagles’ offense. There is a lot of risk involved with a top 70 overall price tag (24th RB off the board). Remember, the Eagles traded bottom-dollar draft capital to acquire Swift, so there’s zero big investment in him to be locked and loaded for playing time. And the idea behind grabbing the Eagles running back is to gain access to TDs through red-zone usage. All of these Eagles RBs going to be efficient running behind an elite OL, and they have all shown the capability of success running the ball. Among the top five running backs in EPA per carry last season, Penny (1st), Gainwell (2nd) and Swift (5th) are all on the Eagles’ roster.
Kenneth Gainwell saw seven carries from inside the 5-yard line last season to Swift’s four. Kenny G scored 3 times. Penny had zero carries from inside the 5-yard line last season.
Javonte Williams (DEN) – (RB27 ECR | RB21 ADP)
Javonte Williams had a rough go in his sophomore season, seeing just four games of action before being sidelined for the remainder of the year due to a devastating knee injury. Before his injury, Williams had a middling RB35 ranking in points per game.
While it’s expected that Williams will be back for Week 1 of the 2023 season concerns loom about how he’ll bounce back from such a severe and complex injury, much like J.K. Dobbins from the previous year. Just because he’s “on the field” doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to be super effective.
In addition, the Broncos’ offseason moves suggest that they may not be fully confident in Williams’ ability to handle a full workload with the addition of Samaje Perine to the backfield under new head coach Sean Payton. It’s pretty clear that this will be an RBBC as is typical of Payton’s backfields, and that’s not great with Williams’ ADP rising inside the top-24 RBs.
Williams was used as a committee back in college with Michael Carter and as a committee back in Year 1 and at the start of Year 2 with Melvin Gordon. In 2023, he will continue to see split backfield usage with Perine under a new coaching staff coming off a major knee injury. Williams’ tackle-breaking ability is enticing – his PFF elusive rating of 116.3 was the highest among all running backs with a minimum of 45 carries in 2022 – but hoping that stays fully intact after a devasting injury is hard to bet on.
Also, Williams’ inability to completely own the backfield is too often overlooked when we know the driving force behind fantasy RB production is volume.
Prefer going WR in the range that Williams is drafted even if is health is clearing up. Because the more clarity regarding his health, will lead to him being drafted HIGHER on draft day. Simply put you (and I) missed the buy-low window to draft Williams. Don’t go chasing the inflated price now. If anything, buy-low on Perine as the RB38.
Alvin Kamara (NO) – (RB25 ECR | RB28 ADP)
Alvin Kamara had a tough 2022 season with the Saints, and he has multiple red flags for fantasy managers heading into 2023. Kamara saw his touchdown upside capped due to the presence of Taysom Hill, who took on an increased role as a backfield rusher at the goal line limiting Kamara to just two rushing touchdowns. With Jamaal Williams joining the backfield this offseason, Kamara’s touchdown production could face further challenges. His overall touches could also be limited with the Saints drafting TCU’s Kendre Miller in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Kamara’s receiving usage also took a hit towards the end of the year, with his target share dropping from 22 percent to 11 percent. He never caught more than two passes in any game from Weeks 13-18, and his days as a game-breaking receiver seem to be long gone. His pass-catching numbers have fallen off drastically compared to his first four years in the NFL when he was averaging nearly 90 receptions per year. Andy Dalton targeted RBs on 22% of his attempts last season. Derek Carr targeted RBs at an 18% clip in 2022.
His rushing production was also subpar, finishing second worst in the rushing EPA (-41) and managing only two games with over 65 rushing yards before the schedule eased up in the final four games. He still managed to finish as the RB15 in points per game (12.8), which might need to be his new fantasy expectation when he plays in 2023.
Kamara’s 2023 fantasy outlook is further complicated by a three-game suspension due to events from the previous year’s Pro Bowl.
With a surplus of red flags, Kamara has a fantasy football bust written all over him entering his seventh year in the NFL. Even though I understand the “get Kamara at a discount” rhetoric due to his 3-game suspension, I think the better way to approach the better is through the untapped upside of the other RBs on the depth chart, particularly with the rookie Miller.
When he plays in 2023, his fantasy prospects are that of a backend RB2/high-end RB3 status amid a three-headed Saints RB room. Preach caution drafting Kamara too high up draft boards with red flags in his 2023 outlook.
The veteran addition of Darrel Williams isn’t too concerning, with him just likely providing a stop-gap as a receiving back through the first three weeks. with Williams nor Miller profiling as clear-cut 3rd-down backs. However, if Miller is to show out (with a potential three-game head start coming back from a knee injury) it’s anybody’s guess what Kamara’s workload will be like when he returns.
Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) – (RB35 ECR | RB333 ADP)
From Week 6 onward, Brian Robinson displayed his volume-driven production, averaging 17.8 carries and over 70 rushing yards per game. He proved to be a reliable option on the ground, earning praise from PFF with a high grade. However, fantasy managers were left wanting more due to his limited involvement in the passing game, with just nine receptions and a minimal target share. It’s important to note that Robinson’s lack of explosiveness and his style as a “plodder” runner may hinder his chances of becoming a true fantasy star.
However, with the Washington Commanders’ improved offensive line in 2023 – although it’s ranked 27th by PFF – Robinson “should” be a reliable option as an RB2/RB3, providing steady production on the ground if he sees the same volume as last season. But the name of the game is USPIDE. And BRob is far, far from that guy. When he got FED after his injury, the reward was one top-12 finish in 12 games played. He’s a low-upside play.
Therefore, fantasy managers should exercise caution to avoid overpaying for a two-down grinder on a team that faces one of the most challenging projected schedules based on forecasted betting win totals. While Robinson brings value with his workload, it’s crucial to consider the overall situation before investing too heavily in his fantasy stock. This offense likely won’t be good enough to support multiple running backs for fantasy football.
Can he beat his ADP? Sure, if he holds onto the job and gets all the volume under a new offensive coaching staff. Reward hardly outweighs the risk of an RB that has a rock-bottom floor.
Just draft Antonio Gibson.
BUYER BEWARE
Running backs, I am not ready to call just yet as busts, but players I have some concerns with for the 2023 fantasy football season.
Derrick Henry (TEN) – (RB7 ECR | RB8 ADP)
Derrick Henry will run behind PFF’s 32nd-ranked offense line that just took on another loss in the form of a six-game suspension for Nicholas Petit-Frere. Now poor OL play has yet to stop King Henry thus far, as the Titans OL has been somewhat shaky in recent years. My concerns are more on Henry finally hitting a “wall” as he enters his eighth season at age 29. In 2022, Henry averaged “only” 96.1 rushing yards per game, which was his lowest total since 2018. Although he made up for it slightly as a receiver, posting career highs in targets, receptions, and yards per route run. 2023 is a contract year for Henry, and the Titans may look to ride him even harder as they look to get the most out of their star player. With the Titans facing major questions on offense, including a potential change at QB, there are valid concerns about drafting Henry too early in 2023. But it would shock nobody if the 247-pound rusher continues his outlier career and smashes all doubt yet again. I’ll likely settle on Henry at his ADP, which is certainly cheaper than it has been in past seasons.
Breece Hall (NYJ) – (RB16 ECR | RB13 ADP)
Full disclosure. I was frequently drafting Breece Hall throughout the summer, but I had been dialing back my exposure. The Twitter doctors are giving me the green light based on his youth and type of ACL injury. I don’t want to miss Hall’s upside. Therefore, I’m not overly concerned about his injury from last season.
But I acknowledge that I am not a medical professional. And as great as the doctors are on the newly-named X App, they aren’t Hall or Jets team doctors. So, it’s important to note there’s always going to be more inherent risk in drafting a running back coming off a torn ACL than not. As I’ve made clear throughout the running back busts section, is that injuries are what causes players to bust often. And until we see Hall fully suit up and practice in some capacity in training camp, he brings a much higher bust profile. Being activated off the PUP list was a good sign. But Hall commenting on knee soreness and “trust” in cutting is really ominous. Specifically, because Hall’s ADP is still in the back-end fantasy RB1 range.
A sluggish start could seriously put fantasy football gamers behind the 8-ball, making Hall someone you need to get a draft day discount with. For me, he has to be drafted outside the first four rounds. The Jets have a brutal six-week schedule to open the year and their offensive line has been a mess all summer, so nobody will be surprised if Hall struggles out of the gates. The team also recently signed veteran Dalvin Cook to a pretty lucrative one-year contract, suggesting he’s not there to just be a backup. He’s going to play, most likely from the get-go. Aaron Rodgers wanted to get this guy.
So in addition to rehabbing a torn ACL, Hall faces a brutal schedule behind a shaky offensive line, learning a new offense with a new QB and overall touch competition from a seasoned veteran that owns a three-down skill set handpicked by the team’s starting QB to join the team. If it’s this easy to see how Hall fails to fire this season, why are we taking on so much risk with a top-5o pick?
You want to be a smart drafter in the early rounds and there are just too many red flags that suggest Hall isn’t the best use of high-end draft capital. Remember, most players BUST. When they burn you, it’s because they don’t hit expectations. Not because you faded them with an expensive ADP.
There are other good players in Hall’s draft range that possess high-end upside as well, without nearly the same risk factors such as Travis Etienne Jr., Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, DK Metcalf or Jerry Jeudy. Don’t be a hero if you don’t have to be.
Hall’s rookie year featured him finishing as RB1 (top-12) in 29% of his games. That ranked 17th. Tied with Kenneth Walker (also cheaper than Hall). D’Andre Swift was at 31%. Raheem Mostert 33%. James Conner 38%. His new teammate, Cook was at 25%. As was Travis Etienne Jr., A.J. Dillon and J.K. Dobbins.
Simply put, there are other RBs with high upside…not-named Breece Hall.
Hall is probably a better buy-low target after the start of the year, where he can probably be obtained at a further discount. And if you do draft him, you need to come prepared with a contingency plan in case he’s not at full strength from a productivity standpoint. Ie. Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine can help plug your RB roster hole.
Najee Harris (PIT) – (RB12 ECR | RB11 ADP)
Najee Harris is routinely drafted at the start of Round 3, and that is just too rich for my blood. Even though I think Harris is in for a bit of a bounce back in 2023, my fear of a split workload with Jaylen Warren has me cooling my exposure to the former first-round pick. In the team’s first preseason game, Harris played just 4 snaps to Warren’s 6 snaps with the Steelers starters. Warren was the first back to get carries with the starters before Harris re-entered the game after seeing the first three snaps.
I can’t touch Harris inside the first 3 rounds of fantasy football drafts, especially given the two first matchups versus a stout 49ers run defense and an improved Browns defensive line. The schedule eases up after Week 2 when Pittsburgh takes on Las Vegas and Houston.
Now I have previously outlined the idea behind both Harris and Warren being able to eat in this offense, which could be more run-heavy than most people think.
When the duo split more work in the second half of last season (which seems like a fair projection for 2023):
Harris was averaging 21 touches per game…+4.5 additional touches from the start of the year. 13.1 half-ppr points per game (RB10 last season). And that came with Warren averaging 9 touches per game…+4 additional touches from the first half of the season.
So that’s the bullish case for Harris especially when he does fall into Round 4 (where I think he can be a valuable asset). The FantasyPros projections have him pegged as the RB12 for 2023.
Harris is not a league-winner, but a value pick in that range that can provide steady points if your roster build just needs a steady asset at RB.
But all in all, I much rather prefer taking the shot on Warren as one of my favorite late-round RB targets.
Aaron Jones (GB) – (RB15 ECR | RB17 ADP)
Aaron Jones posted the highest bust rate among top-nine finishers overall last season (19 percent). His rushing efficiency and receiving game usage remain top-notch, but Jordan Love at quarterback and a lack of red-zone work courtesy of A.J. Dillon over the last two seasons have me press pause on drafting the GB stud RB in the 4th round. Dillon emerged as a red zone threat last season, out-carrying Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5 from Week 9 onward. Basically, Jones has been capped as a back-end RB1 for the past two seasons because of his lack of red-zone upside. And I fear that any fall-off from his super-efficient rushing entering his age 29-season will lead to more carries for Dillon (who is an impending free agent). Jones for me looks a like “small win” player that comes with more risk in an offense led by an unknown entity. I feel most assured regarding his receiving role, so I’d much opt for him in full PPR formats. But in all honesty, I much rather prefer the bet on Dillon usurping Jones as the team’s featured back at a fraction of the cost.
Isiah Pacheco (KC) – (RB29 ECR | RB31 ADP)
Isiah Pacheco was a great story in 2022, but I am concerned about his longevity. His violent running style is not for the faint of heart, with his body suffering at times last season. He underwent surgery after suffering a shoulder labrum tear at the end of the season. Pacheco is still recovering at this time but should return for Week 1 after it was initially thought he would return in the middle of training camp. I have no doubt that Pacheco is the lead back when he’s healthy, but his seventh-round draft capital does him no favors keeping the job should he falter in any way. Jerick McKinnon was brought back to be used on passing downs, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still lingering around on the roster. He led the backfield in snaps and touches during the team’s Week 1 preseason game with Pacheco out of the lineup. The latter two combined for 10 receiving touchdowns in the red zone last season. Pacheco scored four on the ground from inside the 20.
Undrafted rookie free agent running back, Deneric Prince, has gotten training camp hype similar to what we saw from Pacheco last season.
I think Pacheco is fairly priced given the risk associated, but he is a player I’d be looking to sell after a big game or two for fear of how long he will last.
Khalil Herbert (CHI) – (RB32 ECR | RB35 ADP)
Khalil Herbert is explosive as they come, but the team’s reluctance to feature him over a dusty David Montgomery is telling (although Herbert did get injured before he could fully unseat Monty in 2022). As are the additions of D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson into the backfield. Herbert will make plays when he gets opportunities, but a lackluster workload has me concerned. Especially when it comes to being used in passing downs and in pass blocking, where Johnson is at his best. The Bears coaching staff has been very vocal about their starting RB1 being proficient in pass protection, which is not Herbert’s strong suit.
Still, the suppressed price is so heavily baked in that I don’t mind taking shots on Herbert should he win the starting job on early downs. After drawing the start in the team’s first preseason game, it’s apparent that it’s Herbert’s job to lose. And based on how effective if he is when he plays, I don’t think he will lose the job anytime soon.
Herbert has immense upside that I think is worth the price of admission as a low-end fantasy RB3. Again, you don’t score fantasy points with pass-blocking.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Wide receiver busts come in all shapes and sizes. Sometimes it’s based on quarterback play that nukes a fantasy WR’s value. But other times, it’s on the WR themselves for not being talented enough to rise and take advantage of opportunities. Nevertheless, WRs tend to be the toughest position to solidify bust takes on because there is always an upside case worth chasing. But not enough is discussed about the rock-bottom floor some of these players have, with their success dependent on many critical factors. And with WRs ADPs rising at a faster rate than in years past, it is crucial you stay clear of busts.
Glancing back at the 2022 season, the busts aren’t hard to find: Mike Evans (WR7), Deebo Samuel (WR9), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR10), D.J. Moore (WR14), Mike Williams (WR16), Courtland Sutton (WR17), Diontae Johnson (WR18), Allen Robinson (WR20), Brandin Cooks (WR23), Gabriel Davis (WR27), Adam Thielen (WR29), Darnell Mooney (WR33), Hunter Renfrow (WR34), Elijah Moore (WR35), Robert Woods (WR44), Kadarius Toney (WR45), Chase Claypool (WR47), and Julio Jones (WR48).
Note I didn’t include the WRs that missed games due to injury but scored very highly in points per game i.e. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Keenan Allen, Marquise Brown, Michael Thomas, and Rashod Bateman.
The common theme I come away with is the WR busts are most often the projected breakouts and bounce-backs that didn’t fire. Pittman was a consensus breakout candidate across all media outlets but flamed out entirely with a new quarterback. D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton, Diontae Johnson, and Allen Robinson all underwhelmed with new quarterbacks despite it seeming like they had gotten QB upgrades during the offseason. Again, every real-life NFL team is trying to improve their team from the year before, so theoretically, a bystander can always spin a narrative about how a new QB can boost a WR’s production. But it doesn’t always turn out that way, especially with rookie QBs, who notoriously tank their pass-catchers fantasy value.
Sutton and Robinson were also bad in 2021 but were given excuses for the poor performances. Don’t be so forgiving. Talented players find a way to produce even in bad spots.
And who could forget Gabe Davis – the bust example used in the intro for this article – and his ludicrous ADP because of his status as the No. 2 WR playing in a high-powered offense? When a WR has a new QB – for better or worse, even if it seems crystal clear – the bust probability increases. And when a WR is getting steamed for their improved situation as a selling point, it’s likely another indication that you should proceed with caution.
Remember, hitting on break-out candidates is two-fold. Obviously, the player “hitting” is step 1. But part of a player “breaking out” considers the price you paid to get them. Simply put, the higher a potential breakout candidate is drafted, the harder it becomes for them to exceed expectations and actually break out. So when you look at the draft board and identify certain players as “breakouts” note their price tag.
Pittman was by far the most expensive “breakout” WR last year as the WR10. That’s a MAJOR red flag. Because even if he hits….he’s just meeting expectations. It’s just a small win… that takes on an enormous amount of risk. Similarly, the next guy like Mike Williams’ was projected for a MASSIVE year. He was a bust as WR15/16.
I should also note that players performing well above their heads one year are also prime bust candidates the following season. No better picture of that than at the top between Samuel and Evans from 2021. Both guys finished top-5 in fantasy points scored over expectation in 2021. Thielen finished seventh in this category as well and was also a bust.
Age also needs to be considered. Just four players finished as top-50 fantasy wide receivers in 2022 above age 30: Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins. The following WRs (not already referenced) are already 30 years old or will turn 30 during the season: Stefon Diggs (30 in November), Mike Evans (30 in August), Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., DeVante Parker, Robert Woods, and Michael Thomas.
Other things to keep in mind: Be sure to ask yourself if you are high on a particular WR… are you also high on their quarterback? If not, you better run a price check on how high you should be on them. Being mindful of price is a super key point to avoiding busts. It’s also a great way to find values. Because eventually, the market price on a No. 1 wide receiver projected for a boatload of targets like Diontae Johnson in 2023 becomes too good to pass on, even with shoddy passes likely coming their way. It’s when these guys get steamed up that they become much more risky fantasy options (ie, Johnson in 2022). The lesson here is that if you’re going to chase wide receiver volume, do it later in the draft (Rounds 5-7 as opposed to Rounds 2-4). Let the market dictate which volume is deemed “premium” and scoop up the value. And be sure the volume you are relying on belongs to a team’s clear alpha. Again, volume is great, but target efficiency matters slightly more when it comes to drafting WRs. Especially when they are expensive. The lesson here is that if a WR is to overcome a less-than-ideal offensive situation, they likely have to be the clear alpha to beat the situation. The red flags with Elijah Moore were both the QB situation and the introduction of a top-10 pick in the offense that made him irrelevant, aside from the issues that led him to not play at all during the start of the year. As made clear with last year’s busts, the misses are strongly tied to the misevaluation of situations and overvaluing of less-than-proven sufficient talent.
Another attribute to look at when it comes to finding (and more importantly avoiding) WR busts comes to the player’s ability. Specifically, what can this receiver do AFTER THE CATCH. Because what a WR does with the ball in his hands is completely agnostic of quarterback play. It’s out of the passer’s hands at the point (literally) and now the responsibility of the receiver to post-production.
If we consider the worst YAC receivers last season…the results are extremely telling.
Courtland Sutton, Allen Robinson, Adam Thielen, Elijah Moore, Gabe Davis, Diontae Johnson, Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, Brandin Cooks, Chase Claypool, Michael Pittman Jr. and Robert Woods all finished inside the bottom-30th percentile in YAC/reception among WRs with at least 40 targets per PFF data.
According to ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model, Allen Robinson, Adam Thielen, Darnell Mooney, Brandin Cooks, D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton, Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Gabe Davis, Michael Pittman and Diontae Johnson ranked outside the top half in YAC grading among WRs with at least 48 targets.
The only WRs that I could find that were great after the catch and busted were Deebo Samuel and Mike Williams. And both guys missed time with injuries, despite being productive when healthy. Paints a picture of two potential bounceback candidates given their skill sets with the ball in their hands.
And for those WRs that didn’t bust that graded badly or worse in YAC compared to their career averages…it’s a potential red flag that a decline in production is coming if their quarterback play suffers in any way. Note that I am looking at aging WRs where the YAC decline can be more supported versus an outlier year for a younger player that can be better explained based on variance.
Those WRs include:
- DeAndre Hopkins. Lowest YAC/catch since 2015 at 2.8 (82nd among 97 qualifiers)
- Tyler Lockett. 3rd-worst WR in YAC per ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model. 74th rank. Career-low in YAC/reception in 2022. Ranks 13th-worst since 2021 in YAC grade.
- Chris Olave. Was not effective after the catch in college. Same in the NFL. 77th in YAC/reception among 97 qualifiers.
- Brandin Cooks. Worst YAC mark since his rookie year (3.5). But not far from his career average (4.0). Much better suited as a deep threat with upgraded QB play in Dallas.
- Keenan Allen. 50th in ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model in 2022. Dead last in 2021. 12th-worst over the last 2 seasons. Allen is no doubt boosted by his projected volume situation in the Chargers offense. PPR he’s still solid. But half-PPR, no thanks.
- Stefon Diggs. 42nd in ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model in 2022. 60th in 2021. Not too much of a difference from 2021-2022.
- Tyreek Hill. 45th in ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model in 2022. 34th in 2021. Pretty much the status quo.
- Jakobi Meyers. ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model 5th worst-graded YAC receiver since 2021.
Without further ado…the grand unveiling of the 2023 WR Busts.
Chris Olave (NO) – (WR12 ECR | WR13 ADP)
Chris Olave was an absolute stud as a rookie. He ended his strong rookie season eighth in total air yards (1,531) while commanding a 25 percent target share and 10th-ranked air yards share (38 percent). He was the WR26 in points per game (11.0), sixth in yards per route run (2.42), and eighth in target rate per route run (28 percent).
But all that glitters is not Saints gold. Again, I am not huge on Derek Carr, as I have previously outlined. Even if I acknowledge his fit with Olave as a downfield threat is solid. Although it should be noted that “deep passing stats” tend not to be sticky year-to-year based on the variance of high ADOT throws.
But he’s not a player that creates yards after the catch. So that is problematic if Carr doesn’t provide an actual upgrade at QB. Because before Davante Adams fells into his lap last season, Carr had never fueled fantasy WR1 seasons.
I also just want to call out Olave’s per-route numbers. Because the way he was deployed in the New Orleans offense was bizarre. He finished his rookie season 54th in routes run (76 percent route participation). Former Dolphins WR3 Trent Sherfield ran more routes than Olave. The rookie only ran 28.7 routes per game (72nd among WRs).
And the sheer lack of playing time hurt his season-long totals (which actually leads to fantasy points). 24th in targets. A very “meh” 43% top-36 finisher rate. He finished as a fantasy WR3 or higher in just six of his 14 games played. That was fewer than Darius Slayton, Jerry Jeudy, and Adam Thielen.
My concern is that if Olave’s route participation doesn’t drastically increase in 2023, he won’t churn out the fantasy WR1 season that many expect. Because 76 percent route participation is not going to cut it. Only one WR with a sub-80 percent route participation finished higher than WR8 overall last year (Amon Ra-St. Brown).
Olave also saw only 11 red-zone targets last season. He saw fewer targets inside the ten-yard line (2) than Thomas (3).
He also was out-produced by former undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed from Weeks 12 onward. Over that five-game span that the duo played together, Shaheed led the team with 67 receiving yards per game to Olave’s 57 per game average.
And lastly, I want to make a decisive point about the New Orleans Saints offense. To me, they project to be run-heavy, which is NOT factored into Olave’s ADP. Here’s why:
– Super easy schedule in 2023 (+ game scripts)
– Negative 10% PROE in 2022
– 30th in neutral script pass play rate on early downs in 2022
– 29th in neutral game script pace of play in 2022
– 26th in pass attempts last season in 2022
Hardly think the Carr acquisition means they will just sling it all over the yard.
And the absolute kicker. Olave is the highest-drafted “breakout” player after he failed to finish as a top-24 fantasy WR in his rookie season. Not a good bet for solid ROI in my estimates.
And Michael Thomas being an actual threat to Olave’s targets needs to be more factored in. I have been pretty much out on MT – in line with the market – but he looked healthy in the team’s first preseason game, playing 100% of the snaps with the 1st-team offense. Meanwhile, Olave was the least targeted WR from Carr in the game, boasting a 12.5% target rate. Just think there’s more downside than upside in drafting Olave as a backend fantasy WR1. Again, his calling card coming into the NFL was that he was ready to hit the ground running. He was ready for the NFL. So, why are we expecting last year’s most NFL-ready WR to take a massive leap?
DeVonta Smith (PHI) – (WR13 ECR | WR12 ADP)
Devonta Smith was the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game last season. He finished ninth in total points scored above expectation. Overall, he ended the year as the WR16 in points per game. So why is he drafted as the WR11/12 overall?
Before Dallas Goedert’s injury in Week 10, Smith was averaging fewer than 10 fantasy points per game (9.7). He was the WR29 overall. But after Goedert was sidelined from Weeks 11-15, Smith went en fuego finishing the season (Weeks 11 through 18) as the WR5. The Slim Reaper was averaging 15 points per game in half-point scoring.
His current ranking is too heavily weighing his production when Goedert missed time in the second half of the season. Before his injury, the two were posting a nearly identical target rate per route run (20.3 percent vs. 19.4 percent).
In the season’s totality, Smith was a fantasy WR1 (top-12) in just 19 percent of his games last season (27th). Three top-12 threshold finishes. That’s it. Fewer than Christian Watson, Mike Williams, and Zay Jones.
Per the FantasyPros consensus projections, Smith is WR16 in half-PPR. For Week 1 only, Smith is WR25.
Tee Higgins (CIN) – (WR13 ECR | WR14 ADP)
Despite being regarded as the ECR fantasy WR13, there are valid reasons to consider Tee Higgins overrated for the upcoming 2023 season.
With a two-year sample size of playing alongside Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, we have a clearer picture of Higgins’ performance. In games where both Burrow and Chase were healthy, Higgins has averaged fewer than 12 fantasy points per game in half PPR. This level of production raises concerns about his ability to consistently deliver low-end fantasy numbers while playing alongside Chase.
When Ja’Marr Chase was absent from the lineup (limited to just four games), Higgins’ per-game average jumped to 15.5 fantasy points. Based on his performance with Chase in the lineup, Higgins’ 11.8 points per game would have finished as the WR19 last season and WR23 in 2021. Considering these numbers, it’s reasonable to question whether Higgins truly warrants his current ECR WR13 ranking.
In terms of points per game, Higgins finished as the WR20 last season. While he has shown flashes of WR1 fantasy potential, his overall performance places him outside the top-tier wide receiver category. This raises doubts about his ability to consistently produce at the level expected of a WR12.
Taking these factors into account, Tee Higgins may be overrated as the ECR fantasy WR12 for the 2023 season. His two-year sample size suggests that his production is relatively modest, especially when Ja’Marr Chase is on the field. With an average of fewer than 12 fantasy points per game in those situations, Higgins’ current ranking appears inflated.
Considering his points per game ranking from last season and the potential impact of Chase, fantasy managers should approach Higgins with caution and consider him more as a mid-WR2 option rather than a top-12 wide receiver.
Per the FantasyPros WR boom-or-bust report, Higgins finished with the fourth-highest WR2 finish rate (top-24) in 2022. He also finished sixth in fantasy points scored over expectation in 2022. He was the WR41 in expected fantasy points per game last season. Between Adam Thielen and Allen Robinson. Higgins also commanded just 12 red-zone targets (same as Tyler Boyd) and a mediocre 20 percent red-zone target share.
In Higgin’s draft range, I prefer Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf.
Again, Higgins probably won’t fall outside the top-24 (or outside the top-20 WRs), but I think his true fantasy WR1 ceiling is blocked by a healthy Chase. He’s a solid fantasy WR2, and I just don’t love paying the price of a high-end fantasy WR2.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) – (WR22 ECR | WR21 ADP)
Since Terry McLaurin entered the NFL, he’s been a locked-and-loaded fantasy WR2. Despite all the ups and downs and rotating QBs, the former Ohio State Buckeye always finds a way to finish inside the top-24 WRs when it comes to the season’s end. But another year with more question marks at quarterback between Jacoby Brissett and Sam Howell has me overly concerned about the additional risk of drafting McLaurin in the first four rounds without much room to grow in his production.
Over the last two seasons, McLaurin’s produced at his highest with his buddy, Taylor Heinicke, at quarterback. Because in the nine games without the new Falcons QB, McLaurin has underwhelmed tremendously. The Commanders WR has averaged just nine fantasy points per game and fewer than six targets per game. Essentially, a strict WR3/4 producer in games without Heinicke. And last season in those particular contests, McLaurin was out-produced by a healthy Jahan Dotson.
Just last season, McLaurin’s top-24 finisher rate was at just 44 percent. His top-12 rate was just 13 percent (two games). Dotson posted a 55 percent top-24 rate and a 27 percent top-12 rate (3 games). The rookie played five fewer games. Simply put, Dotson is a better fantasy value. I think his upside is similar to McLaurin’s if the Commanders’ passing game performs above expectations. But the cost of his acquisition protects you if the bottom falls out in the nation’s capital.
At the end of the day, TMC will likely end up finishing in the backend fantasy WR2 conversation as he has done every year of his NFL career. And that’s a credit to his YAC-ability, which ranked 15th last season.
And over the last two seasons, McLaurin ranks 10th – tied with A.J. Brown – in ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR YAC model.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) – (WR34 ECR | WR32 ADP)
Despite his potential as the projected No. 1 wide receiver for the Colts and his current ECR as the WR30, there are reasons to consider Michael Pittman Jr. overrated for the upcoming 2023 fantasy season.
The Colts offense is expected to be run-heavy, which poses a challenge for Pittman’s fantasy production. With a low volume of passing attempts, there may be fewer opportunities for Pittman to accumulate targets and make a significant impact in fantasy. This limitation in passing volume is a considerable concern for his fantasy value.
The Colts’ quarterback situation is another red flag for Pittman’s fantasy outlook. The Day 1 starter, Anthony Richardson, is a rookie and may not provide the level of accuracy and consistency necessary to fuel Pittman’s success. While spike weeks are possible with Richardson’s big arm and Pittman’s talent – 93 percent route participation and 27 percent target share last season – the overall consistency may be lacking, leading to an unpredictable fantasy performance.
The emergence of second-year wide receiver Alec Pierce adds another layer of uncertainty to Pittman’s role. Pierce, known for his deep-threat abilities, could potentially put up similar production or even share spike weeks with Pittman as a better “fit” with his rookie QB. With a lower ADP than Pittman, Pierce represents a value option for fantasy managers and raises questions about Pittman’s ability to be the sole standout in the Colts’ receiving corps.
Considering these factors, it is reasonable to be skeptical of Michael Pittman’s fantasy outlook for the 2023 season. While he holds the potential to deliver spike weeks if used more downfield – recall that Pittman posted a 10.3 average depth of target (aDOT) as a sophomore when he finished top-20 in yards per route run, PFF receiving grade and total fantasy points scored (half-PPR) – the limitations in sheer passing volume, uncertainty at quarterback, and potential competition from Alec Pierce and/or Josh Downs make it difficult to envision Pittman returning anything more than WR3 fantasy value. He finished as a WR2 or higher in just 33 percent of his games last season, which was third-worst among top-24 overall scorers.
Pittman’s YAC has also fallen off dramatically after his rookie season.
Mike Evans (TB) – (WR34 ECR | WR32 ADP)
Chris Godwin should remain at worst in the fantasy WR2 conversation regardless, based on a solid role in the slot. He still will be the heavy favorite to lead the Buccaneers in targets and will be another year removed from his ACL injury. He compiled over 1,000 receiving yards last season with just three TDs. Baker Mayfield posted decent completion numbers with the Rams, and I think the offense in Tampa will be similar to that based on new OC Dave Canales coming from the Sean McVay, Shane Waldron scheme. From Week 4 onward, Godwin was WR11 in points per game last season. The only WR we have seen put up decent numbers alongside Mayfield was slot receiver, Jarvis Landry. During his healthy seasons in 2018 and 2019, Mayfield fueled the Browns’ No. 1 WR to WR19 and WR12 finishes.
Godwin’s ability as a menace after the catch – 8th in YAC/reception in 2021, 15th in YAC/reception last year despite coming off a torn ACL – should help him overcome any poor quarterback play.
However, I am not as hopeful for Mike Evans. Before his Week 17 eruption, he was WR26 overall and WR32 in points per game. He will be 30 by the time the season starts. History has not been kind to the aging big-bodied wide receivers that don’t win with separation later in their careers. Evans is a boom-or-bust fantasy WR3/4 that you should only select when he falls too far in drafts.
Again, Evans was a bust last year when he was drafted inside the top-eight overall WRs based on his situation in the Buccaneers’ extremely pass-happy offense. The reward? Evans finished as a top-12 WR1 in just 13 percent of his games (two). He posted fewer top-24 games than Jahan Dotson. And his WR3 finisher rate was abysmal at 47 percent, indicating that Evans was finishing worse than WR36 in more than half his games with Tom Brady last season.
Evans is probably going to “beat” his ADP as a top-30 WR, with him likely chasing his 10th consecutive season with 1,000 receiving yards. Among the worst-scoring fantasy WRs in past years to amass at least 1,000 yards, the majority of them finished in the WR26-WR24 range.
The one exception is Mike Williams from 2019, who finished as the WR38 on the back of 1,001 yards and a grand total of two receiving TDs. Needless to say, the upside is not there for Evans in 2023 and he’s really only valuable in formats that require a lot of WR starters where you can just take what he gives you.
But the fact that it will be more boom/bust than ever, makes us want to shy away from him in traditionally managed leagues.
Kadarius Toney (KC) – (WR49 ECR | WR43 ADP)
In the AFC Championship Game, Kadarius Toney ran three routes. In the Super Bowl, after two weeks of game planning, Toney ran five routes. I understand the bullish case for Toney based on his fourth-ranked target rate per route run (29 percent) over the last two seasons.
And *checks notes* he plays in the Chiefs offense.
But he has displayed zero ability to maintain a full-time role in the NFL with one game played with at least a 75 percent snap share. Toney has also missed so much time with injuries, which also relates to his lack of availability. He is already going to miss ALL of training camp, with reports claiming he “should” be ready by Week 1.
And Toney’s actual production has not been there at all. Toney has three top-36 finishes over the last two years (two top-12 finishes).
Why draft Toney as fantasy WR3 with his fourth-ranked target rate when you can draft Deonte Harty (potentially limited role in high-powered Bills offense) and his top-10 target rate for FREE?
Or just take a stab at Skyy Moore as the team’s projected top slot target?
Michael Thomas (NO) – (WR45 ECR | WR42 ADP)
Despite a strong performance in his three healthy games in 2022, it’s difficult to overlook the concerns surrounding Michael Thomas in fantasy football. In those games, he recorded 16 catches for 171 yards and three touchdowns (on three red-zone targets), demonstrating his ability to make an impact when on the field. However, the bigger issue lies in Thomas’ availability. Over the past three seasons, he has played in just 10 games, making it difficult for fantasy managers to rely on him consistently. Additionally, at 30 years old entering his eighth season, Thomas is reaching a point in his career where durability becomes even more of a concern. Another worrisome factor is his career-low yards per route run in 2022, which stood at 1.64. While Thomas has shown flashes of greatness, his recent injury history and declining production raise doubts about his ability to deliver consistent fantasy production going forward. The Thomas milk is spoiled. Don’t go back.
BUYER BEWARE
The following players I am not ready to identify as just yet as busts, but players I want to highlight some modest concerns for 2023.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) – (WR6 ECR | WR6 ADP)
Aside from a Dak Prescott injury early last season, Lamb had the perfect runway in one of the NFL’s highest-octane offenses. He finished with the fourth-highest target share last season (29 percent) as the WR6 through 18 weeks played. Lamb was the WR8 in points per game and expected points per game.
Specifically with Prescott under center, Lamb was the WR4 from Weeks 7-18 (16.1 points per game). Behind Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown. He was ninth in expected fantasy points per game (13.5). He totaled the third-most points over expectation with seven TDs scored. Overall his 10 total receiving TDs (including postseason) were three over expectation (7.2).
But he only finished as a weekly top-six WR (two no. 1 overall finishes) twice. Amon-Ra St. Brown had more top-six finishes in fewer games played.
15th in red zone targets. 6th in the top-12 finisher rate. 8th in top-24 rate. Good numbers. But far from elite.
Brandin Cooks and a healthy Michael Gallup are more target competition than what Lamb faced last year between middling WRs and tight end Dalton Schultz.
I don’t think Lamb’s as a bust because of the floor he offers. But for him to be a consensus first-round pick with more murkiness behind Mike McCarthy calling plays has me slightly hitting the pause button. He’s the WR6 in ADP. I don’t think his super-high target share will maintain. Fell from 33.3 percent from Weeks 1-6 to 26 percent when Prescott returned last season. Dak won’t hyper-target Lamb with other weapons in the offense.
Keep in mind, that Lamb was being drafted at the exact same price last season (WR6), although he was a mid-second-round pick (16th overall). Now he routinely goes in Round (10-12th overall).
Davante Adams (LV) – (WR8 ECR | WR10 ADP)
Shouldn’t come as a surprise that Davante Adams finds himself in buyer-beware territory. The obvious concerns about Adams are his age (he will be 31 in December) and how he will gel with the injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo as his new QB. But Adams showed zero signs of aging, with the league’s fifth-highest yards per route run (2.45) as PFF’s second-highest graded WR last season. I also don’t believe the fit of a healthy and upright Jimmy Garoppolo is as poor as many may believe.
Garoppolo is an accurate quarterback – sixth in completion rate last season – which should allow Adams to vacuum up targets and add yardage after the catch. Adams finished 22nd in yards after the catch per reception (5.0) in 2022, right in line with his career average (4.8).
I also don’t think going from Garoppolo to Carr is a downgrade. Jimmy G was ninth in fantasy points per dropback and 16th in adjusted completion percentage in 2022. Carr ranked 22nd in fantasy points per dropback and 32nd in adjusted completion percentage last season.
The larger/real concern is how long Garoppolo will stay upright, based on his current foot injury and long injury track record. The other QBs on the Raiders’ depth chart are Brian Hoyer (woof), Chase Garbers, and the fourth-round rookie from Purdue, Aidan O’Connell.
All in all, Adams definitely checks off some boxes of a bust candidate in 2023, but it’s baked into his ADP. And he likely will be his same awesome self while Garoppolo is under center (making him an easy sell-high candidate if he starts hot). But if you draft him – hopefully at a discount as drafters get scared off – you’ll probably come away with value. Let’s not forget that Adams was a top-6 WR at the second-highest rate in 2022 (44 percent). Adams already showed that he could thrive without Carr, catching seven balls for 153 yards and two TDs in a Week 17 contest with Jarrett Stidham under center.
Just don’t let him fall too far in drafts. I’ve got him at WR9, split between ECR and ADP.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) – (WR10 ECR | WR9 ADP)
God this sucks to even entertain the idea that Garrett Wilson could underwhelm. From Day 1, Garrett Wilson was my favorite rookie WR from the 2022 class. The dude could get open at will, and he checked off all the boxes as an early declare being selected inside the top 10. And he did not disappoint. The former Buckeye commanded a 53 percent target share in Week 18 to close out a rookie season with a 25 percent target share, 86 percent route participation, and 146 targets (top-10), despite not being a full-time player until Week 8. He was WR22 overall and WR20 in expected points per game. After Week 8, Wilson owned a 27.5 percent target share (11th) as the WR16 averaging 11.7 points per game.
But let’s just look at the facts when we project him forward into 2022. It’s a brand-new situation with Aaron Rodgers coming in as the team’s starting quarterback. Should be a clear upgrade, but it is not a guarantee. As I outlined in the Rodgers section above, the Packers quarterback wasn’t particularly great last season. Eighth in fantasy points under expectation in 2022. His 15 fantasy points per game mark were worse than Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. Rodgers is a fantasy BUST candidate for a reason, and that may trickle over into Wilson’s fantasy outlook.
Last year in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 17 PPR fantasy points, 14.2 half-PPR fantasy points, six catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. Per-game averages that would have resulted in the 10th-most fantasy points per last season. YLTSI.
But so, we are doing our due diligence, let’s add another layer of these non-Wilson starts. They were Weeks 1,2,3, 12, 13, 14, 17, and 18. These are the following pass attempt numbers in those games: 59, 44, 52, 28, 57, 44, 46, 33. An average of 45.3 attempts per game. That’s a ton. Rodgers averaged 32 passing attempts per game last season.
But it should be noted that Wilson STILL smashed in Weeks 12 and 18. 18.6 points per game with Mike White and Joe Flacco. 42 percent target share. 43 percent target rate per route run. His numbers decreased considerably when the passing volume went UP. Just 12.8 points per game (half-PPR) in the other games. The target share dipped to 23 percent. Passing efficiency matters.
And that’s why Rodgers being in New York has fueled Wilson’s high expectations. If Rodgers can provide just average accuracy throwing the ball (which seems manageable), Wilson will crush it in 2023. No Jets QB completed more than 60 percent of their passes last season. Rodgers completed 64.6 percent of his passes last season, which was close to his career average (65.3 percent).
Wilson is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than five TDs.
All in all, Wilson isn’t a perfect projection in 2023 as some might think. New quarterback – who thought about retiring in the offseason coming off a bad year – with a lot of moving pieces and new faces. Former 2022 Broncos head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, is the new Jets OC. The Wilson-Rodgers connection is bound to go through so growing pains. New York has the toughest schedule through the first six weeks of the season, per SharpFootball. They also own a bottom-six schedule for fantasy QBs, per FantasyPros’ strength of schedule tool.
If you draft Wilson – because I know I will also draft him — you may need to temper expectations to start. But stay assured that he will come through because his talent is undeniable. And that’s why he will find success in Year 2, not necessarily because of Rodgers.
I also think that Wilson’s price is not egregious. When the Rodgers trade first went through, I thought Wilson will eventually vault up into Round 1. But he’s going more in the middle of Round 2…which I love. It’s the same range Justin Jefferson was being drafted after his historic rookie season. And in hindsight, that price was a STEAL.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) – (WR11 ECR | WR11 ADP)
Jaylen Waddle’s connection with his former college QB, Tua Tagovailoa, was evident last season, as he averaged over 15 fantasy points per game (seventh-best). Posted over receiving 85 yards/game.
However, unlike Tyreek Hill, Waddle bombed in the games that Tua didn’t play in. One top-10 finish. All others outside the top-35 in those five total contests.
Part of this relates back to Waddle’s dependence on big plays. He only earned eight red-zone targets last season, fewer than WRs like DeAndre Carter and Parris Campbell.
Waddle’s proven enough through two years that I don’t think he would completely faceplant over a long period of time should Tua Tagovailoa miss any games…but his fantasy WR1 status would likely disappear.
And I cannot deny how elite Waddle is after the catch, as a player that reminded me of young Tyreek Hill when he entered the NFL. The Dolphins WR finished third in YAC/reception in 2022 (6.7) despite a sizeable average depth of target (29th).
Players that have the ability to win both downfield and after the catch are extremely rare. Waddle, Christian Watson and A.J. Brown only three WRs to rank to have a 12.7-plus ADOT and top-10 YAC/rec mark.
DK Metcalf (SEA) – (WR15 ECR | WR15 ADP)
While DK Metcalf possesses the undeniable talent and the potential to be the Seattle Seahawks’ primary wide receiver, it’s important to consider his value in fantasy football drafts. Selecting Metcalf significantly earlier than his teammates may not be the most strategic move. In 2022, Tyler Lockett outperformed Metcalf, finishing as the WR12 overall and WR15 in points per game, despite both players having identical target shares in 2021. The emergence of first-round rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba further adds to the target competition in the offense. For Metcalf to justify his WR15 average draft position (ADP), he heavily relies on a bounce-back in touchdown production.
In 2022, he recorded a career-low of six receiving touchdowns, despite posting personal bests in receptions (90) and targets (141).
But there’s reason to believe that the TDs will bounce back based on Metcalf’s 2022 alpha usage. He was the WR12 in expected points per game based on ranking 18th in target share (25.5 percent) and 12th in air yards share (37 percent). He tied for second overall in red zone targets with Justin Jefferson. If Metcalf BOOMS in 2023, it will undoubtedly be due to TD production. But Metcalf coming through on positive TD regression is already baked into his ADP, as he comes with an inflated price compared to the other Seattle WRs.
However, I like the odds of betting on a guy that looks like Metcalf. We live in upside-centric fantasy land, and nobody talks enough about Metcalf’s ceiling. He is my WR12 that I am aggressively drafting.
Deebo Samuel (SF) – (WR19 ECR | WR16 ADP)
Deebo Samuel is a popular “bust” candidate this season by many publications after he drastically failed to meet expectations a season ago. Now to be clear, I was firmly off the Samuel train last season, so I am hardly trying to come to his defense. But I want to remain diligent in my approach by not allowing last year’s win to influence my analysis to just carry over with Samuel’s price drastically different from WR7 in 2022.
His current ranking in the mid-fantasy WR2 range is essentially taking what Samuel did with Brock Purdy under center – 12 points per game (WR18). It’s also weighing that Samuel led the 49ers in target share (25 percent) and averaged 2.37 yards per route run with Purdy at QB. However, this is a small sample size of five to six games (depending on if you consider the NFC Conference Championship with Purdy’s elbow injury).
Still, I don’t necessarily think that Samuel’s current price is egregious. After all, his target rate per route last season at 26 percent was better than Ja’Marr Chase’s. And even after the team added Christian McCaffrey to the roster, Samuel was still posting mid-WR2 numbers (11.4, WR21). But he was the WR33 in expected fantasy points per game.
- WR24 in expected fantasy points per game last season (11.0) / 11.3 actual (WR22)
- WR33 in expected fantasy points per game after the team traded for CMC (10.2) / 11.4 actual (WR21)
- WR27 in expected fantasy points per game with Brock Purdy as a starter (10.3) / 12.0 actual (WR18)
And it’s Samuel’s usage – or lack thereof – that is the most disheartening. He owned just a 5.1 aDOT as a dump-off savant. The lack of high-value targets hurt his weekly ceiling. Samuel was a top-12 WR in just 17 percent of his games (twice) and only once with Purdy at QB. And in that game, he scored a rushing touchdown. CMC also saw fewer than eight carries for the first time as a 49er in the same contest. Everything else for Samuel was outside the top-18 WRs.
But it’s possible that Samuel’s role changes, which is why I don’t feel the need to completely write him off. After all, this guy is one year removed from a 1,400-yard receiving season. And Samuel has been vocal about the “bad tape” he put out last season, giving him the motivation to bounce back in 2023.
The guy is one, if not one of the best YAC WRs in the NFL. During his “down” year in 2022, he still lead all WRs in yards after catch cumulatively and per reception (9.6). Essentially the same numbers as the year before when he finished as the fantasy WR2.
All factors considered, it’s still just easier to draft Brandon Aiyuk later in drafts at a better value. I feel more secure about his role as the team’s No. 1 perimeter WR versus Samuel, who is competing for similar targets with McCaffrey and George Kittle. Samuel also owns a nasty injury bug that dates back to his college days. In the NFL, he missed four games in 2022, one game in 2021, and nine games in 2020.
But don’t let Samuel’s disappointing 2022 campaign sway you from drafting him if he falls in drafts. All it takes is one of these 49ers’ playmakers to go down, and the others erupt. I know I personally prefer Samuel over Kittle at cost, even if I like Aiyuk the most among the bunch.
Samuel slides in as WR13 in the FantasyPros consensus projections.
Calvin Ridley (JAC) – (WR18 ECR | WR16 ADP)
The “bust” case with Calvin Ridley is simple. He comes back from so much time off and shows signs of rust. With so much time missed, it begs the question of how Ridley’s body will hold up getting back into football shape. The team is already taking things “slow” with him this offseason to avoid any potential soft-tissue injuries after so much time away. But his past production and outlook in an up-and-coming Jaguars offense outweigh the potential risks, in my opinion at the right cost. That’s why I target him in drafts when he is available in Round 4. But drafters need to acknowledge that Ridley remains a risky pick because his entire 2023 outlook is all projection. And the projection looks less and less appealing as he gets steamed up draft boards. Practice safe drafting and know when Ridley’s price becomes too much.
WR18-20 range in Round 4 is fair in my estimate. Inside Round 3 as the WR15 – his current ADP on Underdog and Drafters – is likely too rich for my blood.
Ridley will face fierce target competition for the first time in his career in 2023. Because when he was his most productive self back in 2020, Julio Jones missed half the season. And in 2021, Ridley’s biggest target competition came in the form of rookie Kyle Pitts. I just don’t necessarily think Ridley will post this absolutely bonkers target share with the other Jaguars present in the offense.
Teams with four players with 80-plus targets in 2022: Vikings, Jaguars, Chargers. Teams with 3-plus players with a 17% target share: 49ers, Vikings, Jaguars.
Anybody that thinks Ridley will just walk into a massive target share, is surely mistaken.
Christian Watson (GB) – (WR25 ECR | WR24 ADP)
Christian Watson has a ton of upside after he dazzled as a rookie. But a lot of his production was tied to TD production (nine total TDs), and we have barely seen him on the field with his new quarterback Jordan Love. Second-year WRs tend to always be bets worth making, but it’s not a 100 percent hit rate. Considering the unknown entity behind Love at quarterback, Watson owns some bust potential that fantasy drafters need to acknowledge. But at the cost of back-end WR2, I’m usually okay chasing the boom-or-bust upside when he falls to the end of Round 4 or start of Round 5.
Watson possesses a rare ability to win both downfield and after the catch, making him less dependent on his quarterback’s performance.
Mike Williams (LAC) – (WR28 ECR | WR28 ADP)
Every year it seems like the same story with Mike Williams. Flashes of touchdowns and big plays that are diminished by overall inconsistency. He finished last season as the WR20 in points per game (WR32 in expected points per game) but missed four games. He also saw his TD total dip by over 50 percent, going from nine in 2021 to four in 2022. At this point, it seems Williams will never fully put together a truly epic WR1 season that he has teased every year since 2018. I am still feverishly waiting for him to go over 1,000 yards with double-digit TDs. Don’t hold your breath in 2023 with him facing more competition for targets.
Over the last three seasons, when playing alongside a healthy Keenan Allen, Big Mike has averaged fewer than 11 points per game. Outside top-24 scoring rate. In eight games with Allen last season: sub-10 fantasy points per game (WR3 numbers inside the top-36).
Williams’ status as the clear-cut No. 2 WR in LA is also in question. The team added first-rounder Quentin Johnston to the fold, which adds another layer of ambiguity in the target pecking order. Williams has never been a target hog – 20 percent target rate last year – which is problematic for drafters expecting any sort of consistency from the former first-round selection.
Because the big-bodied WR is the epitome of boom-or-bust WR3 in fantasy football. In 2022, he posted five top-13 games and seven outside top-35. Williams only finished as an actual WR2 once last season.
- 33% top-12 rate (11th)
- 17% boom rate (12th)
- 20th top-24 rate (50%) / 58% in top-36 rate
Simply put, if Williams isn’t finishing with a big game or scoring a touchdown, he is most likely busting in your lineup. Although it needs to be highlighted that booms were front-loaded without Allen in the lineup, suggesting that the busts maybe even more frequent in 2023.
Williams is easily a “better in best ball” target, where you don’t feel the down weeks nearly as much. And given his YAC-ability as previously mentioned, he owns a skillset that you should buy if he falls too far down draft boards with his massive spike week potential.
If you draft Big Mike – especially with his ADP continuing to tumble – just be ready to sell high at a moment’s notice. He’s effective enough when healthy to post massive weeks that we know will not endure the length of the season. The Chargers schedule to start the season – Dolphins, Titans, Vikings, Raiders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bears – screams the Bolts offense coming out RED HOT under new OC Kellen Moore.
Marquise Brown (ARI) – (WR32 ECR | WR33 ADP)
Don’t need much analysis on Marquise Brown’s potential downfall in 2023. Sure, he’s the No. 1 target on his offense. But this team is going to likely suffer from bad quarterback play without Kyler Murray. In five games without Murray (three which overlapped with DeAndre Hopkins also playing) last season, Brown was down to just 5.4 points and 35 receiving yards per game. He also posted similar production in the final two games of the season with both Hopkins/Murray sidelined. Simply put, I am not going out of my way to draft Brown in fantasy. He’s cheap enough that he might not kill your team, but an expected rocky start has me looking elsewhere to start the season in redraft formats.
Brown has also never finished a season averaging more than 11.3 fantasy points per game during his four-year career, which was low-end WR2 status in 2022. If he “hits” what are you winning?
Drake London (ATL) – (WR26 ECR | WR24 ADP)
One of the biggest things I’ve learned over the years when drafting WRs is to not over-evaluate how often a team is going to be “run-heavy.” It’s gotten me in trouble in numerous spots over the last two seasons, and I vowed that I won’t let it happen again. Drake London did everything you want from a rookie WR in Year 1 and is heavily discounted because of the offense he plays in. Sure, it’s still entirely possible that a Desmond Ridder-led offense is still not great, and London suffers as a result. But how silly are we going to be when we reflect on the 2023 ADP and think about how London was sometimes being drafted outside the top-24 after posting a 29 percent target share and finishing fifth in expected yards per route run (2.33) in his first year? In his SECOND game, he posted a 48 percent target share. With Ridder as his QB, London was the WR22 in scoring. 10th in expected fantasy points per game (half-PPR). In full PPR (WR16 to close out the year with Ridder) and ninth in expected fantasy points per game. It’s entirely possible that London doesn’t fire. But I think the worst-case scenario is a fantasy WR3 finish, which seems like a small loss and not necessarily a player that will nuke your team.
George Pickens (PIT) – (WR36 ECR | WR36 ADP)
Despite his potential, there are reasons to view Steelers wide receiver George Pickens as an overrated fantasy football player. While Pickens is highly valued, it’s worth noting that his teammate Diontae Johnson had a superior target share in 2022, receiving 27 percent of the targets compared to Pickens’ 16 percent. Additionally, Pickens’ role on the team cannot be expected to increase significantly, as he already ran a route on 91 percent of dropbacks last season. In terms of target rate per route run, Pickens ranked last among wide receivers who ran a route on 80 percent or more of dropbacks, tying with Parris Campbell and Tyler Boyd at 14 percent. While Pickens may receive hype due to his age and highlight-reel downfield catches, such as leading in FiveThirtyEight’s catch rate metric, it’s important to remember that consistently ranking in the top three for receptions on 20-plus air-yard targets is no easy feat. A bet on Pickens is a big bet on Kenny Pickett taking a massive step forward as a downfield passer in Year 2, with Pickens offering little as a YAC player. This will no doubt lead to many up-and-down games, making him a tough start/sit click every single week. Better in the best ball-scoring format? You bet.
Pickens finished tied for third on the Steelers in red-zone targets (seven) behind Johnson and tight end Pat Freiermuth. D.J. was a focus in red zone, finishing last year with the third-highest red-zone target share (54.5 percent). Freiermuth finished with the sixth-highest red-zone target share (80 percent) among tight ends.
And with just Pickett at QB last year, Pickens was third in the overall target pecking order. He averaged 5 targets/game and meh 14% target share. His 9.6 points per game would have slated him at WR37 last season, which is right where he is being drafted in 2023.
Because of that, I think that Pickens is pretty fairly priced. There are much worse bets you could make than on a second-year Steelers WR, and the fact that he sees downfield looks gives him high spike week potential. An injury to Diontae or Frieremuth would definitely open up the target floodgates for Pickens because that’s really his main issue. Not necessarily a talent question mark as a highly-touted second-round pick from last season. This team needs to generate explosive plays, and Pickens is probably their best bet among the top pass-catchers. And keep in mind that the Steelers were the No. 1 team in the fewest games lost due to injury last season per Football Outsiders. Ergo, they are likely to get hit by more injuries in 2023. Frieremuth has three documented concussions in the NFL. Johnson is a volume receiver, which means he takes on a lot of hits.
So after being out on Pickens for most of the draft season, I’d say that I am cautiously dipping my toes back in the pool given the price tag. He checks off the value-based drafting WR strategy I subscribe to as a discounted real-life WR2.
Rashod Bateman (BAL) – (WR48 ECR | WR50 ADP)
Can’t help but view Rashod Bateman as a bit overrated as the Ravens No.1 WR. His efficiency numbers are all inflated by one huge play he made last season. His aDOT of was over 20 yards in half of his games, and his numbers plummet if you remove his 75-yard catch-and-run TD against the Dolphins. His yards per route run would fall to 1.76 – which is more fine than stellar. And when he wouldn’t deliver a big play, Bateman was strictly operating on the outside, running slants and drags.
As a result, he busted in half his games played last season. Bateman only ran 120 routes last season. Ergo, small sample size trap.
And if Baltimore thought he could be the “guy,” why sign OBJ and draft Zay Flowers in the first round? Hell, even Nelson Agholor has shown more NFL production than Bateman. The former first-rounder has missed 16 games over the past two seasons (eight per year). And in 13 games played with Lamar Jackson, Bateman has averaged 51 receiving yards per game on 3.4 receptions and 5.4 targets.
With being projected to operate on the outside – away from the slot/middle where Jackson has thrived as a passer – I think Bateman is just another boom-or-bust WR that will leave a lot of fantasy managers wanting more. He’s also been banged up every year of his NFL career and enters this season on the PUP list.
Final Thoughts:
By no coincidence, I tried to include the top WRs attached to my bust QBs. Makes sense intuitively as a quarterback that busts will most likely bring his WRs down with him. But I do want to stress that this changes slightly based on the scoring format. Half-PPR is a bigger hurdle to overcome because you need TDs more. And touchdowns come because of high passing efficiency. In PPR formats, WRs can survive “bad QB play” easier, assuming they are commanding a boatload of targets and receptions.
I’d also note that my slight concerns with Lamb, Adams, and Wilson convinced me to bump Amon-Ra St. Brown in my WR rankings because I have zero reservations about his 2023 outlook.
TIGHT ENDS
It’s not hard to find tights end that bust. Because most of them do. The issue is that every year we have a certain crop of tight ends that are viewed as “worthy” of being drafted inside the single-digit rounds. And when those guys sputter out, they take a massive toll on your lineup. And that’s why going late-round tight end remains a viable strategy. You avoid all costs associated with high-priced tight ends and avoid the bust potential altogether. Obviously, you might miss on the tight ends that do hit (a small number, no doubt), but your roster is taking on much less risk.
Here’s a peek back at last year’s fantasy TE busts: Mark Andrews (TE2), Kyle Pitts (TE3), Darren Waller (TE5), Dalton Schultz (TE6), Dawson Knox (TE9), Mike Gesicki (TE13) and Albert Okwuegbunam (TE14). Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz were also fantasy busts from an injury perspective but were productive on a per-game basis.
Long story short, half of the top 14 tight ends by ADP were busts. So, if you really want to avoid busting tight ends, your best bet is to just go with a late-round approach.
George Kittle (SF) – (TE4 ECR | TE4 ADP)
George Kittle has been a highly regarded tight end in fantasy football, but there are reasons to believe that he may be overrated heading into the 2023 season.
Without looking it up…who do you think has played more games over the last three seasons? George Kittle or Darren Waller? Trick question. It’s the same. 37 regular season games played.
In 2022, Kittle had his lowest yards per route run since his rookie season. This indicates a potential decline in his effectiveness as a receiver and raises concerns about his ability to consistently produce at a high level.
Even with Brock Purdy as his quarterback, Kittle still trailed Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in target share, ranking third in the pecking order (tied with Christian McCaffrey). Without Samuel healthy for four games, Kittle’s fantasy production nearly doubled, with 1.5 receiving TDs per game.
Kittle’s performance in 2022 was marked by inconsistency. He had six games with fewer than 40 receiving yards, with three of them occurring when Samuel was on the field. However, Kittle did have three games with over 90 receiving yards, mainly when Purdy was at quarterback and Samuel was absent. His 50 percent bust rate last season led all tight end scorers inside the top seven at the position. This volatility makes him a riskier option for fantasy managers.
Kittle owned an eighth-ranked 19 percent target share among all tight ends in 2022 and ranked 13th in target rate per route run at 22 percent. While these numbers are solid, they don’t necessarily place him in the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends.
Kittle significantly outperformed his expected touchdown total, finishing with 11 touchdowns compared to an expected total of 6.2. This suggests that he may experience a regression in touchdown production in 2023, which could have a negative impact on his fantasy output.
Considering these factors, it’s reasonable to argue that Kittle is overvalued as the TE4, being drafted around the 57th overall pick. His declining yards per route run, inconsistent performances, and the likelihood of touchdown regression make him a riskier option compared to other tight ends available later in the draft.
In Kittle’s draft range, I prefer Kyle Pitts, Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle is still being drafted 49th in redraft ADP (61st in best ball ADP).
Evan Engram (JAC) – (TE8 ECR | TE8 ADP)
Evan Engram struggled to maintain a top-12 tight end status, achieving it in less than half of his games last season (44 percent). Surprisingly, Engram had the same number of top-six finishes (three) as Noah Fant, Darren Waller, and David Njoku. His total season-long numbers are inflated by his Week 14 blow-up game.
From Weeks 1-13, Engram was the TE15 averaging fewer points per game than Kyle Pitts, Tyler Higbee, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Conklin, and Gerald Everett. After Week 14, Engram jumped all the way to TE4, adding more than two points to his per-game averages.
With his injury history, the addition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley and the draft selection of pass-catching tight end Brenton Strange in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Engram is an easy fade in 2023. Drafting the middle tier of tight end traditionally brings poor ROI. And Engram is going even HIGHER in redraft ADP (80th) versus best ball (91st).
Cole Kmet (CHI) – (TE15 ECR | TE16 ADP)
Cole Kmet was the only show in town last year for the Chicago Bears, but hardly posted any kind of consistency. Despite posting the league’s highest route participation (84 percent), he posted a horrible 16 percent target rate – identical to Foster Moreau. He also caught five red-zone touchdowns, despite just nine red-zone targets – a mark that ranked outside the top-15 at the position. All in all, Kmet finished as a top-12 tight end in just 25 percent of his games played (22nd). With alpha WR D.J. Moore added to the roster this offseason along with another tight end in Robert Tonyan, Kmet is going to remain a TD-or-bust tight end in 2023.
Beware of his extremely high ADP in home leagues (12th in Yahoo, 14th on Sleeper)…where he is being drafted as the TE11, much higher than his best ball ADP (TE16). Kmet is TE18 in the FantasyPros projections. TE30 in the Week 1 projections. Woof.
Greg Dulcich (DEN) – (TE14 ECR | TE14 ADP)
Time is now to fade Greg Dulcich. The new coaching staff has no allegiance to him as the TE1 on the roster. During the team’s first preseason game, Dulcich only ran a route on 50% of Russell Wilson’s dropbacks. He was also out-snapped 10 vs 15 and out-targted (0 vs. 3) by Adam Trautman (who was brought over from New Orleans). There are MUCH better tight-end sleepers to draft if Dulcich can’t get a better role in Denver’s offense.
BUYER BEWARE
Guys, I am not ready to call complete busts, but I have some concerns with for the upcoming season.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – (TE3 ECR | TE3 ADP)
T.J. Hockenson averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game (WR30 numbers) after arriving in Minnesota. He’s now currently being drafted 45th overall drafted, around the WR20-24 range through Round 4. While I think this price is fair for a tight end being drafted around WRs who averaged just slightly more points per game than he did, I’m just not convinced Round 4 Hockenson is the best use of my precious draft capital. I mean, why draft him in Round 4…when you can get Dallas Goedert two to three plus rounds later?
Before his injury, DG was averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game as the TE5. From a consistency standpoint, only Travis Kelce finished with a higher rate of top-12 weeks at the position. It was the lack of TDs that crushed DG from a ceiling perspective. DG will likely need an injury to either Devonta Smith or A.J. Brown to hit his fantasy ceiling but stay assured that he will provide a super-high floor regardless. There’s reason to believe that the Eagles will throw for more TDs than rush after they posted the league’s highest rushing TD percentage (58 percent) since 2016.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) – (TE6 ECR | TE5 ADP)
I don’t think it’s possible to view Kyle Pitts as anything but disappointing as he enters his third NFL season. He’s drastically underperformed for two straight seasons after coming out with extremely high expectations that many young players could never reach. The QB situation in Atlanta has hurt him dramatically, but we cannot keep coming up with excuses for Pitts. He has target competition with second-year stud Drake London and could easily take a backseat to a ground game led by Bijan Robinson. Pitts is also coming off a season-ending injury and will play with a quarterback we have never seen him with.
I don’t think Pitts is an overrated talent, but his fantasy price has essentially made him a fantasy bust in back-to-back seasons. Even though he posted a HISTORIC rookie season, his super-inflated price mitigated his great statistical accomplishments as the TE7 overall and TE13 in PPG in 2021.
But everybody knows this, and his price has corrected as a result. He’s actually cheaper than he has been the past two seasons, entering his third year in NFL.
And from a lot of metrics, he checks off the exact boxes you want from a potential breakout player. Last season he was 2nd among all players in expected yards per route run. Ranked 5th in expected fantasy points per game. 28 percent target share (2nd among all TEs) for Pitts in 2022. Pitts commanded 14 targets of 20-plus air yards but only caught one. Upgraded quarterback play will go a long way in ensuring that Pitts is a fantasy factor in 2023. And it’s the suppressed price that helps alleviate his bust potential.
The opportunity cost of drafting Kyle Pitts in Round 6 or 7 – Tyler Lockett, Isiah Pacheco, D’Andre Swift, Dallas Goedert, David Montgomery, Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Jordan Addison, Marquise Brown – will cost you a combination of these players. Considering this group has plenty of risks associated with it already, I think Pitts is a decent price. He has a higher target share projection than all of these guys. Basically, I’ll take my select few breakout targets over Pitts, but any WR/RB I am lukewarm on I’ll pass on for the chance at the unicorn talent rebounding.
And the only reason I don’t draft more of Pitts is because Waller usually goes later. But that gap has closed marginally, with Waller’s ADP now AHEAD of the Falcons tight end after he had been behind Pitts all summer. Waller has also leaped Pitts in the ECR rankings. If I miss out on Waller, Pitts is the next guy on my radar as the tight end talent pool dries up.
Dalton Schultz (HOU) – (TE11 ECR | TE11 ADP)
Dalton Schultz got the franchise tag this past year from Dallas, with the team unable to agree on a long-term deal. The Cowboys’ tight end battled through injuries, but he still ended the season as the TE9 overall in 14 games played (TE10 in points per game). The biggest factor in Schultz’s production was based on Dak Prescott being under center. When Dak missed time to start the year, Schultz was a non-factor. He averaged fewer than one fantasy point per game. Woof. But with Prescott back in the lineup, Schultz averaged 9.5 fantasy points, 4.5 receptions, and nearly seven targets per game (21 percent target share).
For fantasy purposes, Schultz staying in Big D attached to Prescott would have been ideal. But his production over the last three seasons netted him just a one-year deal from the Houston Texans.
This new situation with a major downgrade at quarterback and offense may create unfavorable results considering Schultz has been super dependent on his offensive environment to support his fantasy value. He doesn’t create after the catch – 38th out of 42 qualifying tight ends in yards after the catch per reception – and his every-down role from Dallas is not guaranteed to carry over to another team.
All in all, Schultz seems like a pretty poor fit in an offense heralded by former SF offensive passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik. The 49ers are known for generating YAC, and Schultz hardly fits that profile.
However, I can’t help but be somewhat intrigued by Schultz because he’s far less expensive than I thought he would be when he first signed with the Texans. There’s still a chance he leads Houston in targets among their lackluster receiving corps, and that’s desirable outside the top 120 overall picks (126th overall). I definitely will not be going out of my way to draft Schultz, but finding a tight end with a clear path to targets at his price is extremely rare. Schultz finished with the fourth-highest top-three finisher rate and fifth-highest top-six rate in Dallas last season.
But be mindful that you CANNOT/SHOULD NOT reach for Schultz. There are plenty of other tight ends that project similarly to him that go later in deeper drafts (Tyler Higbee, Hayden Hurst etc.) But in shallower formats, if those prices are essentially the same, Schultz is a great target as one of the last picks you can make at tight end.
Chigoziem Okonkwo – (TE12 ECR | TE15 ADP)
Can’t help but think there’s some anchor biasing going on with Chigoziem Okonkwo’s draft price. For me, he is firmly in the flier TE territory falling from the No. 2 to the No. 3 in the target pecking order after the team added DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. He will have his fair share of spiked weeks as a big-play threat, but a lack of consistent targets will provide no indication of when he can be started. He’s overvalued after being touted as a late-round TE darling prior to the Hopkins signing, and some drafters are not jumping off their priors.
However, the injury to Treylon Burks has gotten me somewhat back into the Chig market. If I am going late-round tight end, I like stashing Okonkow at his further suppressed cost, until Burks proves he is 100% healthy.
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