Early-Round Draft Targets: DeVonta Smith, Mark Andrews, Calvin Ridley, Jahmyr Gibbs (Fantasy Football)

We have a brand new season of fantasy football peeking over the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled, and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy. The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts. These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Regardless of whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB or somewhere in between, I’ve presented a few targets early in fantasy football drafts.

Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Derek Brown’s Early-Round Draft Strategy & Top Targets

Here is my approach and players to target for each of the early rounds.

Round 3

Early-Round Players to Targets

DeVonta Smith: The Slim Reaper put all the BMI truthers and doubters in a body bag in 2022, finishing as the WR14 in fantasy points per game. After operating as the team’s field stretcher in his rookie season, DeVonta Smith became the high-volume intermediate target hog I hoped for. Smith saw 42.2% of his targets last year within nine yards of the line of scrimmage and thrived. He was 19th in target per route run rate and seventh in YAC. He finished 14th in target share, ninth in receptions and eighth in receiving yards. In Weeks 11-17, he led the team with a 30.5% target share and a 37.3% air yard share as A.J. Brown took a slight backseat (28.2% target share, 36.2% air yard share). Smith should be considered a rock-solid WR2 with WR1 upside this season.

Mid-Round Players to Targets

Mark Andrews: Andrews has not finished lower than TE5 in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons. Despite Lamar Jackson struggling and Tyler Huntley being unable to deliver an accurate pass in 2022, Andrews was still the TE3 in fantasy. He commanded a 29.0% target share (first) and was fourth in red zone targets. Andrews was also sixth in receiving grade and third in yards per route run (per PFF). While his target share could dip with more receiving talent on the depth chart this year, the passing volume will rise to compensate. Andrews is one of the few tight ends that can give Kelce a run for his money for TE1 in 2023.

Late-Round Players to Targets

Calvin Ridley: My body is ready for Calvin Ridley to return to the NFL and set the stat sheets on fire. Trevor Lawrence tickled our spider senses last year by flashing elite upside at the quarterback position. Ridley should have no problem earning the alpha WR1 role in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. The last time we saw Ridley with a set of pads on, he was seventh in target share (27.4%), fourth in air yard share (40.0%) and fifth in route win rate. No, I’m not worried even a little bit about “rust.” I don’t think Ridley forgot how to get open after time away from the game, and you shouldn’t, either. Draft the Jaguars WR1 with confidence.
Jahmyr Gibbs: This year, the Lions turned in their old sports car for a newer model that still has that new car smell. The new Corvette in the driveway is Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs was a big play waiting to happen at Alabama last year, ranking seventh in breakaway percentage (per PFF). Much like his predecessor D’Andre Swift, Gibbs is a pass-game weapon that ranked ninth and second in yards per route run over his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). David Montgomery will be a thorn in Gibbs’ side, especially in the red zone, but he doesn’t have Gibbs’ upside for big plays and a heavy pass game role. Detroit ranked 13th in target share and 11th in raw target volume last season to the running back position. Expect those numbers to rise in 2023. I have concerns about his overall volume and touchdown equity, but Gibbs has RB1 upside with an RB2 price tag.