The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. With the NFL Draft comes dynasty rookie draft season! We have you covered with our dynasty rookie draft coverage, and of course, you can complete fast and FREE dynasty rookie mock drafts using our mock draft simulator. While you take that simulator for a spin to prepare for your dynasty rookie mock drafts, check out our latest dynasty rookie mock and analysis from our analysts.
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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
1.04 – Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
Jordan Addison is fluid and silky smooth through his routes. He’s quick in and out of his breaks. He displays nuance in his routes with pacing, subtle head fakes and his understanding of leverage. His change-of-direction ability is effortless. He can gear down easily and jab step during a route without losing speed. Addison has a decent burst after the catch, but it’s not likely to ever be a calling card. He dealt with drops early in his collegiate career, with 14.3% and 9.9% drop rates before 2022. He displayed growth here in 2022, decreasing that mark to 3.3%. He has strong hands, though, with contested catch rates of 53.8% and 55.6% before 2022. Addison will never be confused as a body catcher as he routinely plucks the ball from the air away from this body.
Addison is a versatile wide receiver that played from the slot in 2020-2021 (68.0-82.6%) before transitioning to the boundary (75.5% out wide) in 2022. His superb route running and short-area separation skills allow him to play multiple roles fluidly. Addison’s varied release package at this stage of his career is impressive. Addison reminds me of watching DeVonta Smith with a difference in play strength. Smith played above his weight class, but Addison played at his weight.
Dynasty Outlook: Addison will be Justin Jefferson‘s running mate in Minnesota after the Vikings selected him in the first round of the NFL Draft. Addison should immediately fight T.J. Hockenson for the second spot in the passing game pecking order. There’s plenty of passing volume available for Addison to have a monster rookie season. Last year the Vikings were fourth in neutral script passing rate and second in red zone passing rate. With the addition of Addison and a wretched defensive unit, the Vikings will again challenge for the league lead in passing attempts.
2.06 – Josh Downs (WR – IND)
Josh Downs has been a productive slot option at North Carolina (89% collegiate slot rate). He has a nose for the soft spots in zone coverage. He was utilized on screens and easy crossers to capitalize on his YAC ability. Downs weaves through traffic and sets up blocks after the catch like a running back. His first step and burst pop on film. Because of it, he can succeed on slants, drive routes and screens. Downs has some of the most dependable hands in this class. Among 53 wide receivers last year with at least 100 targets, he ranked second in contested catch rate (72.2%) and logged the eighth-lowest drop rate.
He varies his tempo in his routes and releases constantly. He’ll utilize speed releases and then slow-play a corner on the next rep before exploding into this stem. His size shows up on boundary routes where he can get pressed into the boundary and off his route. While he’s elusive after the catch, this is because of his quick feet and vision. He’s not a tackle breaker and can be dropped by a decent wrap or corner catching him at the ankles. Downs can get open deep with subtle, smooth changes of direction on posts and corners, but if you’re asking him to win on out and ups or nines, you could have a problem. His lack of a third-gear deep shows up on verticals. He routinely leaves corners unstacked, and without a homerun gear, it creates problems for him at the catch point. Downs should be an underneath zone beating option and YAC pillar in the NFL.
Dynasty Outlook: The Colts nabbed the former Tar Heel slot standout in the third round of the NFL Draft. Downs shouldn’t have any problems beating out Isaiah McKenzie for the starting slot position in camp. Another comforting factor towards his 2023 playing time projection is that Shane Steichen oversaw a Philadelphia offense that utilized at least three wide receivers on the field for 73.6% (seventh-highest) of its snaps. The biggest worries for Downs will be the overall passing volume, with the Colts likely to lean on the run and ease in Anthony Richardson versus NFL competition. He could be the second target in the passing attack behind only Michael Pittman Jr. Downs is a late-second-round/early third-round rookie draft pick.
3.06 – Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE)
Cedric Tillman will never be described as a “burner,” but that doesn’t mean he’s slow. Tillman has build up speed with the ability to pull away from corners on deep patterns. Tillman also has no problems stacking opposing corners. Tillman runs a full complement of routes with nuanced jab steps and head fakes. His foot speed won’t wow you, but his quick first step allows him to get separation on slants and drive routes.
Tillman has a well-developed understanding of how to use his size, especially on slants and above the rim. He flashes nice body control in the air on back-shoulder throws and errant passes. Tillman compensates for average foot speed with a strong upper body that allows him to beat press, but he needs to continue to work on his releases and footwork at the line. NFL corners will offer a stiffer test for him. He has good bend for his size. Tillman’s next quarterback must become accustomed to trusting Tillman to win at the catch point. While he can get early separation on routes, late separation is usually the name of the game for him.
Dynasty Outlook: Tillman could struggle to see the field in 2023. Even if the Browns deploy 11 personnel at a high rate, Tillman should be behind Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Elijah Moore on the depth chart. Tillman was drafted to be the eventual replacement for Peoples-Jones, an unrestricted free agent after this season. If you miss out on Tillman in your rookie drafts, it’s OK because we probably get a “trade for” window during the season if he’s the WR4 on the team. Tillman is a late-second-round/early third-round rookie draft pick. He makes more sense on teams rebuilding and shooting for next year to compete than a team looking for a quick contributor for 2023.
4.06 – Eric Gray (RB – NYG)
Eric Gray should be a quality RB2 in the NFL. He wins with vision and displays a good feel for zone runs with the patience to let his blocks develop. He presses the hole and has a good jab step that he deploys before getting upfield. Gray doesn’t possess much in tackling-breaking or the ability to create a ton on his own. His leg drive is average, and he goes down too often by shoestring tackles or with the first defender in pursuit. Gray deploys a spin move occasionally to help him create more yards after first contact.
His lack of physicality shows up in blocking and pass protection. Gray is a solid receiver. He is at his best when working in space where he can build up a head of steam and utilize his vision in traffic. His pass protection worries could limit his upside as a receiver at the next level unless he lands in a scheme that deploys their backs in routes more than blocking duties.
Dynasty Outlook: Gray heads to the Big Apple via the fifth round of the NFL Draft. While Gray could ascend to the RB2 spot on this depth chart behind Saquon Barkley, he could also fall as low as third or fourth behind Matt Breida and Jashaun Corbin. Gray is worth a late-round rookie draft stab and taxi squad stash, especially if you have Barkley on your roster.
5.06 – Tre Tucker (WR – LV)
Tre Tucker profiles as a depth receiver in the NFL. Tucker offers special teams ability for his next prospective home with 67 kickoff returns on his resumé, with two returned for scores. Tucker is a savvy slot receiver with an innate spider sense to weave between zone coverage. He is a chain mover. Tucker can make defenders miss in the open field with his quick feet and acceleration, but I wouldn’t classify him as a dynamic threat with the ball in his hands.
Dynasty Outlook: The Raiders see something in Tucker that I don’t. His profile isn’t special, with a 22nd-percentile college dominator and no true collegiate breakout. Las Vegas spent a decent middle-round pick on a player who probably becomes their primary kick returner while contributing little on offense. Tucker isn’t worth a dynasty roster spot.
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