Draft Pick Values: Rachaad White, Chigoziem Okonkwo (2023 Fantasy Football)

We’ve looked at players who are target regression candidates, and today we’re going to dive into the other end of the pool. The winds of change blow through the NFL each offseason which inevitably gives new opportunities to players to step into bigger roles. This has an obvious impact for fantasy purposes as well, and projecting increases in volume in a player can result in getting them at an average draft position (ADP) that is much lower than they should be going.

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Target Share Risers (2023 Fantasy Football)

Today we are going to look at six players who should see an increase in target volume this season. Many of them are benefitting from the departure of their team’s primary pass-catcher from last season, while a few are projected to step into bigger roles as they enter their second year in the league. Of this group, I believe five of them are being drafted at an ADP that I would consider a bargain for their potential role, with at least two being massive steals at the moment.

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

2022 – 58 Targets (8% Target Share)

Like a lot of others discussed here, Rachaad White should benefit from attrition in the Tampa Bay offense. Leonard Fournette and his 83 targets have left town, leaving White as the primary beneficiary here. This works well with White’s skill set, as he has been seen as more of a receiving back anyway.

He handled himself well last year when Fournette was injured, so assuming the Buccaneers don’t bring in another back (no sure thing), White should be in line for a bump in his target share. With Buccaneers likely playing from behind in a lot of games this season, White has a big opportunity to be an RB2 in PPR leagues.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)

2022 – 46 Targets (10.6% Target Share)

Two Titans in an article about players who will see a bump in targets? Yes, and Chigoziem Okonkwo might be my favorite player here. This is as much an indictment of the dearth of options in the passing game for the Titans as anything else. That said, Okonkwo has worked himself into a position to be second in the pecking order behind Burks for targets here.

Tennessee brought him along slowly last year, but he finished the season with 31 targets over his last seven games. His ADP has been creeping up all spring, and now he is sitting at TE13 in PPR redraft leagues. That is still a nice value to me, although I was loving it when he was closer to TE18. He will be in the top 10 by August.