Draft Pick Values: Marquise Brown, Christian Watson (2023 Fantasy Football)

We’ve looked at players who are target regression candidates, and today we’re going to dive into the other end of the pool. The winds of change blow through the NFL each offseason which inevitably gives new opportunities to players to step into bigger roles. This has an obvious impact for fantasy purposes as well, and projecting increases in volume in a player can result in getting them at an average draft position (ADP) that is much lower than they should be going.

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Target Share Risers (2023 Fantasy Football)

Today we are going to look at six players who should see an increase in target volume this season. Many of them are benefitting from the departure of their team’s primary pass-catcher from last season, while a few are projected to step into bigger roles as they enter their second year in the league. Of this group, I believe five of them are being drafted at an ADP that I would consider a bargain for their potential role, with at least two being massive steals at the moment.

Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)

2022 – 107 Targets (23.7% Target Share)

As hard as this stat might be to believe, Marquise Brown had a lower target share in 2022 than he did in 2021 (26.7%). Brown started out last season on a tear, racking up 74 targets in his first six games, which put him on a 181-target pace. The return of DeAndre Hopkins, combined with an injury, derailed what was looking like a monster season for Brown.

Now he enters 2023 as the WR1 for Arizona as Hopkins has been released, and Arizona has very little left in the way of competition in the receiver room. It isn’t out of the question that Brown could see a 30% target share, giving him similar numbers from his first six games last year. I think he is a strong buy at his WR29 ADP this season.

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

2022 – 65 Targets (15.2% Target Share)

The bad news for Christian Watson is that the Packers moved on from Aaron Rodgers, leaving Jordan Love to run the offense. They also lost Allen Lazard (100 targets) and Randall Cobb (50 targets) this offseason as well, which can only be a good thing for the second-year receiver. Watson battled injuries early on last season, but once healthy, he operated as the WR1 in Green Bay. While his touchdown efficiency is unsustainable, Watson should have no trouble eclipsing 100 targets this season which makes him a nice WR2 target in redraft.