We are in the midst of the draft season. With that comes multiple articles about who we should draft and why we should draft them. However, this article will not follow suit. This article will explain who we should avoid when drafting and, at the most critical position on the field, the quarterback. One of my favorite rules to share in fantasy football is don’t sink your ship because you don’t win your fantasy league at the draft, but you can 100% lose at the draft.

If you select these quarterbacks below, you risk your chance at fantasy football glory. Let’s get started with someone who took the league over last year, but at his ADP is a risky draft selection, Justin Fields.

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Do Not Draft: Quarterback Edition

Justin Fields (CHI)

In 2022, Justin Fields was electric, especially regarding the rushing upside he could provide for your team. The issue is the ability to duplicate another performance like 2022, where he rushed for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns. He also averaged a league-high 7.1 yards per carry. Sprinkled into his 2022 season were fantasy-winning performances on the ground, such as Week 9, where he ran for 178 and a touchdown. He then followed that game up with 147 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

The NFL and their coordinators do one thing exceptionally well; when they have tape on a player or a scheme, they snuff it out. Thus, that electric moment produced on the field regresses towards the mean. Expecting this high-level performance on the ground with Justin Fields is an easy way to flush your fantasy season down the drain, especially when you look at how the Chicago Bears’ passing attack is developed.

Yes, the Bears brought in DJ Moore and traded for Chase Claypool last season, giving Justin Fields better weapons within the system. However, that system in Chicago is the issue holding the young quarterback back. The Chicago Bears had the lowest passing percentage in the league as they passed 40.3% of the time compared to running the ball 59.7%. Now, we understand that should even out more with the new weapons and resemble the change in philosophy we saw in Philadelphia last season after they were run-heavy the year before. Don’t expect the Bears’ passing percentage to jump over 50% in 2023, which means the increase in passing will be nice but not enough to make a Jalen Hurts-like jump which will only do one thing, diminish his rushing upside and make Justin Fields selection at his current ADP (43) more risk than reward.

Kyler Murray (ARI)

Welcome back to another article where we explain the risk of Kyer Murray in fantasy football for 2023. When Kyler Murray is healthy, he scores fantasy points with the best of him. However, health is a significant concern. We could have a player missing time on a lousy team with two first-round picks next year that can become top-5 selections.

The reason why this matters is that the Arizona Cardinals are far from competing. So the best plan for the organization is to rest the man that is their franchise quarterback and “Trust The Process.” There is no need to rush back Murray, so why should we draft a player who could miss six games, if not the whole season? Remember, we can’t win at the draft but surely can lose.

Even if he was healthy this season, this offense isn’t anything you would want to write home about in 2023. The Cardinals have lost DeAndre Hopkins. They will most likely cut Zach Ertz. Finally, outside of Marquise Hollywood Brown, there are question marks across the board in the wide receiver room. Even with the questions on the offensive side of the ball, the crucial point is their defense. This defense is lackluster at best, and the best way for Jonathan Gannon to hide this deficiency is to slow the game down and overuse the veteran running back, James Conner, before disregarding him in the offseason to utilize the potential out in his contract.

Kyler Murray’s Konami Code ability is typically an upside you want to aim for in your draft. However, that ability is in question, as is his situation in Arizona. Without “talent” being solidified and in a weary situation, Murray’s ADP screams fade in 2023.

Daniel Jones (NYG)

Daniel Jones can produce points in the running game, which, attached to his extremely late-round ADP in the past, was worth the risk. However, this season, Daniel Jones is sitting at 85th overall, and the juice isn’t worth the squeeze in 2023. There are many factors facing Jones this season, but the most significant one people seem to overlook is history. We have multiple seasons of Daniel Jones underperforming as a quarterback in the passing game. He has produced three straight seasons of 15 or fewer touchdowns through the air. Although the New York Giants brought in new weapons, such as Darren Waller and a handful of slot wide receivers, these additions do not move the needle to the extent that we can begin to trust Daniel Jones to take a giant leap as a passer in 2023.

Let’s move on to Saquon Barkley‘s role within this offense and organization. Barkley is unhappy with his contract, and right now, we have reports of the running back and the organization being on different levels when it comes to fixing this issue. Saquon Barkley is the gas that makes this New York Giants’ engine go. If Barkley misses time, Jones’s value will plummet back to Earth.

If Barkley misses time in camp, his body may be behind where it should be when it comes to the start of the season. Players behind schedule risk struggling with higher injury risk in the season. Without Barkley to keep defenses honest, Jones will face teams that dare him to beat them through the air.

Daniel Jones already faces a brutal strength of schedule while coming off a season where they won eight games by one score or less. If Barkley isn’t at 100%, we can see diminished results from his quarterback, Daniel Jones. At his ADP, you can draft another player and add a quarterback later to your team who can provide rushing upside or lead a more potent offense, such as Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, or Anthony Richardson.

Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros. If you ever need more help with your fantasy teams, don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter at @jpep20. Good luck in 2023, and remember to avoid these risk-filled quarterbacks in your draft!

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio