Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry. I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be avoiding like the plague. Here are my players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football. Let’s have a great season.

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Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)

Could Watson bounce back in his second season in Cleveland? Sure, it’s possible, but the quarterback position is far too plentiful, with options up and down draft boards that could actualize a similar ceiling. My pessimism about Watson also stems from the fact that he wasn’t just league average last year in his return. He was incredibly putrid. Seeing him operate at such a pedestrian level can be explained away to an extent, but it can’t be unseen. Watson had the 10th-highest turnover-worthy play rate and the fourth-lowest big-time throw rate. Only Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Daniel Jones had lower big-time throw rates last season. Even when Watson operated in a clean pocket, he was an utter mess. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 33rd in clean pocket passer rating. There are plenty of upside arms to target in the middle and later rounds of fantasy football drafts that it’s not worth chasing Watson’s possible upside and absorbing the sizable risk that he might just not have the magic anymore.

Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)

Questions swirl around Kyler Murray from a health standpoint and regarding the offensive system being installed in the desert in 2023. Murray tore his ACL in Week 14 of last season, and with the Cardinals having one of the worst rosters in the NFL, we may not see Murray until late this season. Murray has been a perennial fantasy difference-maker with two top-five fantasy points per game seasons under his belt. Still, I’m not drafting a quarterback of all positions with a murky recovery timeline. Also, we have no clue what the Cardinals’ offensive system will be this year and if it will be any good. Arizona hired Drew Petzing to be the offensive coordinator. This will be his first season leading an NFL offense after nine seasons as an offensive assistant, wide receivers coach, tight end coach, and quarterback coach. Could Murray burn me as I shy away in 2023? Possible but not likely. There are too many other quarterbacks to take shots on for upside throughout fantasy drafts to absorb the risk of Murray in search of upside.

Running Backs

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

In the first five weeks of last season, Harris struggled with a metal plate in his shoe while playing through a preseason Lisfranc injury. His tackle-breaking and explosive play ability suffered immensely. After the plate was removed after Week 5, Harris looked more like the player we saw in his rookie season, as he ranked 22nd in Yards after contact per attempt and tenth in elusive rating. His ability to provide explosiveness still was lacking, though, as he had the fifth-lowest breakaway percentage among running backs across his final 12 games. It’s sad, but at this juncture, Harris looks like ugly David Montgomery in fantasy, which, to be honest, is probably too heavy-handed and a slight to Montgomery. Montgomery bests Harris in career yards per route run, PFF receiving grades, and YAC per reception. The Steelers coaching staff came to their senses and worked in the lightning-in-a-bottle Jaylen Warren more as the last season wore on. We could see that continue in 2023, with Warren taking even more work away from Harris. After Week 5 last season, Warren bested Harris with 30.6% of the team’s high-value touches as Harris sat at 17.8%. After a rookie season where Harris played less than 75% of the snaps only three times, Harris only crossed that mark three times in 2022. After Week 5, Warren posted 1.6 yards per route run and drew a target on 23% of his routes run, which dwarfed Harris (0.87, 20%). Warren can further eat in Harris’s snaps in 2023, especially on passing downs which will send Harris packing his bags for bust town.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)

Yes, I know this could be crazy sauce as Mixon was the RB7 in fantasy points per game, but his efficiency numbers went into the trash can last year. Mixon survived on weighted opportunities (11th-best) and his passing game role. He finished seventh in target share, fifth in receptions, and 11th in yards per route run. If Mixon holds his every-down role this season and continues gobbling up check-downs, then he’ll likely bury me, but I have no problem fading a back that, outside of those passing game numbers, was atrocious in 2023.

Among 45 running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last year, he was 39th in Yards after contact per attempt, 36th in breakaway percentage, and 42nd in elusive rating (per PFF). Mixon finished with only one 100-yard rushing game and four games with at least 100 total yards in the regular season. The Bengals also began to lean on Samaje Perine down the stretch as Mixon only eclipsed 60% of the snaps only once after Week 9. Mixon might be the new Uncle Lenny, but considering his massive fall-off as a rusher, it won’t take much for another back to eat into his workload as Perine did.

Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)

Could Alexander Mattison be the Vikings’ new workhorse? Possibly, but his profile more closely resembles a dead zone back to avoid. Mattison has been increasingly inefficient early in his NFL career. His Yards after contact per attempt have dropped in the last four seasons, while his yards per route run has dipped over the last three years. Last season he only managed one run of 15-plus yards with his 74 carries. The other running backs on the Vikings’ depth chart might not be household names, but Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, and Kene Nwangwu are all talented players who could carve into Mattison’s volume in 2023.

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

Everyone drafting Rachaad White looks at him as a locked-in volume back in Tampa Bay, but we need to pump the brakes. White is a middling talent that the addition of a dusty veteran like Ezekiel Elliott or Kareem Hunt could sink. Even if the team doesn’t sign one of those players, it’s possible Sean Tucker or Ke’Shawn Vaughn could steal work from White. Yes, I just said Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Yes, that Ke’Shawn Vaughn. While Vaughn has never lived up to the hype built before his rookie season, he has been impressively efficient. We get some interesting results if we compare Vaughn’s career efficiency marks against every back with at least 100 carries last year. Vaughn would have ranked ninth in Yards after contact per attempt, 18th in breakaway percentage, and 16th in elusive rating. Stacking up White against the same sample of backs yields disappointing results. Among 45 qualifying rushers, White ranked 44th in Yards after contact per attempt, 32nd in breakaway run rate, and 37th in elusive rating. If you’re waiting for White’s pass-game skills to save him, you could be waiting awhile. Among 61 running backs last year with at least 20 targets, White was 24th in yards per route run and 40th in YAC per reception. White is another replacement-level talent that could lose work as the season rolls along.

D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI)

Consensus is drunk on aged Swift hype that is past its expiration date. Swift’s best asset is his pass-game utility, and it would be surprising if that is used often in Philadelphia. Last year the Eagles were dead last in target volume and target share to the running back position. Among 41 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks last year, Jalen Hurts had the sixth-lowest check-down rate (per FantasyPoints Data). Swift won’t get the receiving work to counteract losing early down, and red zone touches to a superior rusher in Rashaad Penny. We still haven’t talked about Kenneth Gainwell as a possible nuisance to his route per dropback rate. Give me Penny over Swift in every draft.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

Terry McLaurin’s 2022 season was a tale of two halves. With Carson Wentz under center, McLaurin’s role withered, as he had a 16.3% target share, a 26.4% air yard share, and 1.52 yards per route run. McLaurin’s season would have been sunk if Wentz had kept ignoring him all season. Once Wentz was sidelined by injury, McLaurin exploded with Taylor Heinicke under center. With Heinicke, McLaurin had a 29.8% target share, a 44% air yard share, and 2.73 yards per route run (28% target per route run rate). McLaurin’s skills haven’t diminished one bit. The problem has been the quarterbacks tossing him the ball. At the moment, Washington is entertaining the Sam Howell experience under center in 2023 (it could easily be Jacoby Brissett). With Howell and new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, we have no clue about the possible offensive scheme in Washington in 2023. Will they play slow? Will they be run-centric? You can’t just cut and paste previous seasons of the Chiefs’ offensive output and transpose them to Washington. Andy Reid had a hand in playcalling. How much is debatable, but we don’t know. With a new offensive system, quarterback questions, and play volume worries, I’m out on McLaurin.

Mike Evans (WR – TB)

Did Mike Evans fall off the age cliff last year or, at the very least, begin his descent? It does appear that way on paper. Evans finished 17th in raw target volume but 37th in target share (19.7%). He was 11th in air yard share (35.4%), third in deep targets, and 22nd in red zone targets. All these volume metrics are nice, but they will all take a hit with Tom Brady gone. His efficiency metrics are the real tale of the tape, as he was 33rd in yards per route run, 35th in route win rate, and 47th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). With metrics that have gone in the tank and incoming wretched quarterback play, Evans is an easy fade this year.

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

Without his “wide back” role and with the 49ers bottling him up as a check-down specialist again, Deebo Samuel struggled to a WR28 finish in 2022. He still drew a strong share of the 49ers’ passing offense with a 25.4% target share (19th), but his aDOT was 4.2 (102nd), and he only saw five deep targets (108th) and 12 red zone looks (36th). Without the rushing equity and high-leverage roles to help pad his fantasy production, Samuel dissolved into a WR3. The results were even more frightening with Christian McCaffrey as a full-time player in the 49ers’ offense last year. Samuel was WR58, WR5, WR66, and WR33 in that four-game sample in weekly fantasy scoring. That’s not exactly the type of output you want from a player that’s being drafted as a WR2 in every format. No, thank you.

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

Pickens had some standout moments in his rookie season, including highlight-reel catches and shadow realm run blocking reps. Still, overall if you were banking on him to be a major fantasy producer, you were probably disappointed. Pickens logged six weeks with top-24 fantasy finishes, but outside of those weeks, he was unstartable with eight weeks of WR50 or lower fantasy production. With Allen Robinson on the roster, expect the Steelers to utilize three wide receiver sets heavily. In Weeks 1-8, with the team heavily deploying 11 personnel, Pickens had a 15.1% target share, a 26% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. He barely eclipsed a 15% target per route run rate. Pickens is a WR4/5 that could be the fourth option in a Kenny Pickett-led passing attack. I’ll let others fall on the hype sword in 2023.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – NE)

Smith-Schuster had a solid season last year in one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it wasn’t amazing, no matter how you slice it. The great Juju Smith-Schuster revival in Kansas City didn’t come to fruition as many hoped. He was the WR35 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.4% target share (46th) and 16.9% air yard share (70th). Smith-Schuster’s ability to beat zone coverage is his calling card these days, so he should help New England’s passing offense in this aspect. He should be the “new Jakobi Meyers” as a starter in two wide sets that flexes to the slot when they utilize 11 personnel. Smith-Schuster is an uninspiring WR4/5. Outside of Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots’ roster is a steaming pile of stink on offense.

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – BAL)

The last time we saw Beckham Jr., he evoked thoughts of yesteryear when Beckham Jr. took the league by storm. While Beckham Jr. was on his way to a possibly stout Super Bowl before injury struck again, we’re likely never seeing prime Beckham Jr. again. During his final seven regular season games with the Rams, Beckham Jr. saw a 15.1% target share, 20% target per route run rate, and produced 1.25 yards per route run. His five receiving touchdowns in this span help gloss over the fact that he was a mediocre receiver per efficiency numbers in that stretch. Beckham can continue to be a red zone weapon assuming full health in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, but the days of valuing him as anything more than a WR4/5 are over. I’ll happily draft Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers over Beckham, and they will go behind Beckham in many draft rooms. Beckham will need outlier touchdown production to surpass my expectations for him in 2023.

Tight Ends

George Kittle (TE – SF)

George Kittle survived off of touchdowns last year, plain and simple. His 11 receiving touchdowns were a massive outlier that won’t repeat in 2023. Kittle has never managed more than six receiving touchdowns in any season until last year. Kittle is beginning to show a decline in his efficiency metrics. Impending touchdown regression and eroding efficiency is not a recipe for fantasy goodness. Last year Kittle had his lowest yards per route run and targets per route run since his rookie season in 2017. He also recorded the second-lowest PFF receiving grade of his incredible career. There are too many talented tight ends with similar upsides to worry about drafting Kittle in 2023.

Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU)

I’ll be staying far away from Dalton Schultz this season. Schultz without Dak Prescott has been a scary scene since 2020. Yes, I know that we have had to deal with the Andy Dalton or Cooper Rush show when Prescott has been out, but still, it’s been incredibly bad for Schultz. In the 15 games without Prescott, Schultz has seen his fantasy points per game dip from 12.1 to 6.7 and his receiving yardage drop from 47.9 to 27.9 per game. With 6.7 fantasy points per game, Schultz would have been the TE26 last year. After career-best marks in PFF receiving grade, YAC per reception, and yards per route run in 2021, Schultz regressed in each area last season. A change of scenery won’t help Schultz rebound in Houston. I’ll take late shots on other tight ends if I’m chasing late-round upside at the position.

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, Rotoviz, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*