Every fantasy football GM has dreams. “What if this draft falls perfectly? What if I get EVERY player that I love this year?” Welcome to my fever dream. These are the players that I will be overweight in redraft and best ball formats in 2023. Let your queues be full, and the fantasy points flow.
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Derek Brown’s Perfect 2023 Fantasy Football Draft
Approach to Round 1
Depending on your predetermined draft slot, the idea of the first round is to stay liquid. If I have a top-three pick, the conversation begins with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. If you’re sitting at the 1.03, the argument for Travis Kelce starts here, but I don’t have any issue if you prefer Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, or the top running back left on your board.
Early-Round Players to Target
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
What is there to say about Jefferson? He’s at the top of nearly every receiving production and volume metric you can find, and he’s primed to run it back in 2023 with a similar stat line. Last year Jefferson was the WR2 in fantasy points per game, leading the NFL in targets (184), red zone targets, receptions, receiving yards, and YAC. With Dalvin Cook off the roster, expect Minnesota to lean even more into their passing game after ranking third in neutral script passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season. You’ll need the 1.01 in nearly every league to secure his services in fantasy football for 2023. If he falls to 1.02 in any league, I will break my phone by pressing the draft button so swiftly.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
Chase is one of the few wide receivers that can possibly compete with Jefferson for the top spot among wide receivers. Chase could take his game to another level in 2023 after what we saw down the stretch to close out last season. Over his final five games of the season, he led all wide receivers with 11.8 targets per game, ranked fourth in target share (30.9%), and was the WR3 in fantasy points per game. Over that same span, he also led all wideouts with 1.2 end-zone targets per game. If Chase had kept up that type of blistering pace for 17 games, he would have walked away with 204 targets, 136 receptions, 1,499 receiving yards, and 10 receiving scores. Chase competing for the crown of the best wide receiver in the NFL in his third season is easily in the range of possibilities for 2023.
Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
Kelce is a difference-maker and worth a top-five selection in any draft. Last year Kelce showed no fall off his in production, ranking first in receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game at the tight end position. His skills remain razor sharp as he was also second in yards per route run and fourth in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). Even comparing his fantasy production to other positions, Kelce deserves high praise. He would have been the RB5 and WR6 in fantasy points per game last year. Kelce is set for another stellar season if he can continue holding off Father time.
Mid-Round Players to Target
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, Tyreek Hill could break records this season. Last year in the games in which Tagovailoa was active, Hill averaged 108.3 receiving yards putting him on an insane 17-game pace for 1,841 receiving yards. Megatron still holds the single-season receiving yardage crown with 1,964 in 2012. I don’t doubt that Hill can make a run at this lofty total entering his second season in this offensive system. Hill can still cook corners with the best in the league. Last year he ranked first in receiving grade and yards per route run (per PFF). He was also fourth in open score (per ESPN analytics). Hill will remain the tip of the spear for an offense that will remain pass-happy in 2023.
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
After pushing their chips to the middle for years, the Rams’ house of cards finally came tumbling down last year. Injuries decimated the team, but that didn’t slow down Cooper Kupp when he was on the field. Kupp ranked third in target share, 12th in air-yard share, and was the WR1 overall in fantasy points per game. He was also seventh in receiving grade and yards per route run (per PFF). With Matthew Stafford back in the huddle and the team likely to field a bottom-five defensive unit, there should be plenty of passing volume to fuel Kupp to another top-five fantasy wideout season.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Last year, Ekeler built upon his fantasy legend status as the RB1 in fantasy points per game. This is after he was the RB2 in the previous season. After contract worries early in the offseason, Ekeler is back in the fold and fully invested in crushing it again in 2023. Ekeler still has plenty left in the tank after ranking seventh in yards per route run and evaded tackles last season. With the team moving toward chucking it deep more this year, Ekeler’s target share (18.9%, second) could dip slightly with Justin Herbert checking it down less, but Ekeler will still be involved heavily. In 2020-2021 under Kellen Moore’s direction, the Cowboys were 13th and 10th in target volume directed to the running back position.
Late-Round Players to Target
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
One of the best running back prospects in recent memory landed on a team that was second in neutral script rushing rate and led the NFL in red zone rushing rate last year. Yeah, Robinson is a player I’ll have heavy exposure to in every format. Robinson should be considered a lock for 300-plus touches. With that type of volume and his talent profile, Robinson has RB1 overall upside this season. Robinson ranked 11th and 18th in yards after contact per attempt and sixth and third in elusive rating (minimum 100 carries per PFF) over the last two years. No one will be muttering Arthur Smith jokes at the end of the season if Robinson carries them to fantasy titles.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Last year, in his third NFL season, Lamb finally broke out and entered the WR1 ranks in fantasy (WR7). Lamb should run it back in 2023 with another top-12 season, but the great thing is it’s possible that we still haven’t seen Lamb’s ceiling. Last year he was top-six in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns among wide receivers. Lamb is an elite target earner ranking ninth in target share (28.7%) and seventh in target per route run rate (30.1%). He was top-seven in route win rate and win rate against man coverage. With Michael Gallup hopefully rounding back into form and the addition of Brandin Cooks, opposing defenses won’t be able to key in on Lamb as much in 2023. The needle remains pointed up for Lamb.
Approach to Round 2
Round 2, in many instances, boils down to drafting your favorite running back or wide receiver that falls to you. I’ve laid out my list here. Any of these players is fine, while my obvious love for Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tony Pollard, Chris Olave, and Rhamondre Stevenson is well-documented.
Early-Round Players to Target
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
All of the worries that his rookie season stretch run tsunami was a mirage should be buried. St. Brown immediately picked right up where he left off in 2022. He continued to draw targets at a ridiculous rate ranking third in target per route run rate and eighth in raw target volume. He was ninth in yards per route run and eighth in red zone targets. St. Brown could enter the top-five fantasy wide receiver discussion this season if his late-season red zone use continues into this upcoming year. In Weeks 10-18, St. Brown led all wide receivers in red zone targets. He carries a double-digit receiving touchdown upside this year. With Jameson Williams out of commission for the first six weeks, St. Brown could be headed for a career-defining season.
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
Pollard is on a collision course with a monstrous season. With Ezekiel Elliott out of town, this is Pollard’s backfield. While I don’t think he will be an 80% snap bell cow, he doesn’t need that type of snap share to be a fantasy dynamo in 2023. Last year Pollard authored an RB8 finish while ranking 30th in snap share (50.9%) and 34th in opportunity share (48.1%). He did this because he’s one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. He was top-five in breakaway run rate, yards created per touch, yards per route run, and yards per touch. Pollard will cede some snaps to another back this season, whether that’s Malik Davis, Rico Dowdle, or another replacement level shmo. This won’t deter Pollard from his destiny as a top-three running back in fantasy in 2023.
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)
The 2022 season was liberating for A.J. Brown stans like myself. Brown was freed from the run-first chains of the Tennessee offensive structure and allowed to spread his wings with the Eagles. Brown was the WR8 in fantasy as he set career marks in nearly every category. Brown ranked third in yards per route run and top 15 in route win rate. Brown remains an upper-echelon wide receiver tied to one of the league’s best young passers. He’s a WR1 that should come close to replicating last year’s fantastic stat line.
Mid-Round Players to Target
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Calling Jaylen Waddle the Robin to Tyreek Hill’s Batman would be blasphemous. This tandem of South Beach dynamos is more like Batman and Superman. Each has the power to tip any game in favor of the fins. While Hill destroyed defenses deep, Waddle was the underneath threat decimating coverage schemes with his blinding speed and YAC skills. Waddle ranked 10th in YAC and fourth in yards per route run as he cruised to a WR1 season (WR12 in fantasy points per game). Waddle can put you over the top weekly as your WR2, but if you lean into other positions early, he is a viable WR1 for your team.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
After enduring putrid replacement-level quarterback play for most of his rookie season, Garrett Wilson should be on cloud nine with Aaron Rodgers chucking passes his way weekly now. Last season in Weeks 8-18, Wilson had a 26.9% target share, a 37% air yard share, and 2.08 yards per route run. Combining these metrics and the quarterback upgrade should put Wilson on the fast track to WR1 production if everything hits. The cold water that could cap his target volume and fantasy ceiling is the snail’s pace that Nathaniel Hackett and Rodgers have run at when teamed up. Wilson’s median outcome is as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
Late-Round Players to Target
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
Even if you had lofty expectations for Chris Olave in his rookie season, he likely still surpassed them. His WR25 finish might not look fantastic on the surface, but Olave’s deeper metrics point to a future alpha that could break out in his second year. Olave was 15th in target share (26.7%), third in air yard share (40.8%), and 10th in yards per route run. Michael Thomas‘s return doesn’t worry me at all. Thomas isn’t the same player he was during his prime. If he can stay on the field and get open at an above-average clip, it should help Olave by keeping opposing defenses honest and reluctant to roll extra coverage Olave’s way. Olave could easily be a WR1 if Derek Carr can be a league-average passer.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
“Dread it, run from it…destiny arrives all the same. And now it’s here.” Mondre season is upon us. The team has already scrapped the supposed threat to his early down work in James Robinson. Ty Montgomery remains, but you can miss me with any banter of him significantly eating into Stevenson’s work in the passing game. In reality, Stevenson is one of the best backs in the NFL, and he will be the engine of the Patriots’ offense this year. Last year he was first in yards after contact per attempt, eighth in breakaway run rate, 18th in yards per route run, and 10th in target per route run rate (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets per PFF). Last year the Patriots leaned on Stevenson as he recorded 12 games with at least 60% of the snaps played, averaging 18.7 touches and 122.8 total yards over that timeframe. In those games, Stevenson had an outstanding 18.8% target share and a 60.1% route run rate. Bill O’Brien tends to lean on one back, and that will be Mondre. During O’Brien’s last five years of leading an NFL offense, his starting running back saw at least a 58.7% opportunity share, with some backs earning up to 73.9% (ninth-best in 2016) of the backfield touches. Mondre is a league winner.
Approach to Round 3
My approach to the tight-end position is simple this year. In the early-to-middle rounds, the choice is simple. Pick your favorite between Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller. If you don’t want to invest the capital in Kelce and you’re not a fan of Andrews and Waller, then you’re punting the position to the later rounds. Round 3 opens up the quarterback can of worms, as Jalen Hurts is my top quarterback this season. The best argument against drafting Hurts this early is that you can access a similar upside with rushing in Round 4, possibly with Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson.
Early-Round Players to Target
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
The Slim Reaper put all the BMI truthers and doubters in a body bag in 2022, finishing as the WR14 in fantasy points per game. After operating as the team’s field stretcher in his rookie season, DeVonta Smith became the high-volume intermediate target hog I hoped for. Smith saw 42.2% of his targets last year within nine yards of the line of scrimmage and thrived. He was 19th in target per route run rate and seventh in YAC. He finished 14th in target share, ninth in receptions, and eighth in receiving yards. In Weeks 11-17, he led the team with a 30.5% target share and a 37.3% air yard share as A.J. Brown took a slight backseat (28.2% target share, 36.2% air yard share). Smith should be considered a rock-solid WR2 with WR1 upside this season.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
Hall was just getting warmed up when injury struck last year. When his knee failed him in Week 7, he was coming off four straight weeks with at least 50% of the snaps averaging 18.8 touches and 122 total yards. Over that span, he was the RB13, RB15, RB4, and RB6 in weekly fantasy scoring. His recovery from the ACL tear is a concern, no doubt, but the talent and situation are lining up for Hall to have a stellar sophomore season if his knee is sound. Hall ranked first in yards after contact per attempt, first in elusive rating, and third in breakaway percentage (minimum 75 rushing attempts per PFF). Imagine that talent getting to run against lighter boxes this year. That’s called the Aaron Rodgers effect. Over the last three years, Aaron Jones ranked no higher than 39th in the average number of defenders in the box. That’ll be a drastic difference for Hall, who saw the sixth-highest average number of defenders in the box last year. Expect the Jets to work in other backs all year to keep Hall fresh, but losing empty calorie touches to other players won’t derail his banner season incoming.
Mid-Round Players to Target
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
Hurts for MVP in 2023. That has a nice ring to it. Hurts fell just short of delivering on my proclamation last year. He was the QB1 in fantasy points per game, headlining an explosive Eagles offense. As good as he was last year, Hurts can still get even better through the air this year. The efficiency numbers were there last season as he ranked fourth in passing grade, seventh in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in yards per attempt (per PFF), but the passing touchdown rate didn’t follow. Hurts ranked 15th in passing touchdown rate and 14th in passing touchdowns. Those numbers are primed to improve this year. Hurts won’t come as cheap as he did last year in drafts, but he’s worth paying up for.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
Andrews has not finished lower than TE5 in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons. Despite Lamar Jackson struggling and Tyler Huntley being unable to deliver an accurate pass in 2022, Andrews was still the TE3 in fantasy. He commanded a 29.0% target share (first) and was fourth in red zone targets. Andrews was also sixth in receiving grade and third in yards per route run (per PFF). While his target share could dip with more receiving talent on the depth chart this year, the passing volume will rise to compensate. Andrews is one of the few tight ends that can give Kelce a run for his money for TE1 in 2023.
Late-Round Players to Target
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
The old man and injured slander have gone far enough with Keenan Allen. Allen didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year, and he has started at least 13 games in each of the last five seasons before 2022. Last year Allen ranked 12th in receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run (per PFF). The yards per route run mark was his highest (2.08) since the 2.32 he posted in 2018. Once healthy last season Allen was crushing souls in his usual high-volume role as the WR3 in fantasy points per game. With Kellen Moore dictating the play calling, the Chargers could lead the NFL in passing attempts and plays run. This means more volume and a higher upside for Allen in 2023.
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)
My body is ready for Calvin Ridley to return to the NFL and set the stat sheets on fire. Trevor Lawrence tickled our spider senses last year by flashing elite upside at the quarterback position. Ridley should have no problem earning the alpha WR1 role in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. The last time we saw Ridley with a set of pads on, he was seventh in target share (27.4%), fourth in air yard share (40.0%), and fifth in route win rate. No, I’m not worried even a little bit about “rust.” I don’t think Ridley forgot how to get open after time away from the game, and you shouldn’t, either. Draft the Jaguars WR1 with confidence.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
This year, the Lions turned in their old sports car for a newer model that still has that new car smell. The new Corvette in the driveway is Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs was a big play waiting to happen at Alabama last year, ranking seventh in breakaway percentage (per PFF). Much like his predecessor D’Andre Swift, Gibbs is a pass-game weapon that ranked ninth and second in yards per route run over his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). David Montgomery will be a thorn in Gibbs’ side, especially in the red zone, but he doesn’t have Gibbs’ upside for big plays and a heavy pass game role. Detroit ranked 13th in target share and 11th in raw target volume last season to the running back position. Expect those numbers to rise in 2023. I have concerns about his overall volume and touchdown equity, but Gibbs has an RB1 upside with an RB2 price tag.
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
The Baltimore Ravens love fest continues. This is an offense that I will be heavily invested in for 2023. With that being the case, If I miss out on Jalen Hurts or Justin Fields in drafts, then I’ll easily and aggressively pivot to Lamar Jackson. Break out the streamers and party hats because Jackson has been liberated. In steps Todd Monken who is riding in on his valiant play volume steed. Monken will inject new life into the pace of this offense as he’s ranked inside the top 12 in neutral script pace in three of his last four seasons as an offensive coordinator. With Monken and an army of new skill player additions, Jackson can revisit the torrid pace he started with last year before the receiving depth chart fell apart. In Weeks 1-3 with Rashod Bateman on the field, Jackson was the QB1 in fantasy points per game, averaging a whopping 34.8 points. He was also on his way to a beautiful passing season ranking third in passing grade, first in big-time throw rate, and third in yards per attempt (minimum 80 dropbacks per PFF). Jackson could break fantasy football this year.
Round 4 Targets
Round 4 is simple. It boils down to more access to a top-flight Baltimore offense this year or investing in incredibly talented wide receivers who could reach alpha status in 2023. Aaron Jones is my outlier. While he’s an aging back, his numbers don’t suggest the age cliff is coming for him in 2023.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
Don’t let Aaron Jones’ advancing age fool you. He’s still producing as if he’s still firmly in the prime of his career. Last year Jones was the RB11 in fantasy points per game as he continued to rattle off filthy efficiency numbers. He was 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 24th in breakaway percentage, and ninth in PFF’s elusive rating. The stellar numbers weren’t confined to early downs, as he was also 17th in yards per route run and ninth in target share among running backs. At age 28, I’m willing to bet Jones has at least one more RB1 season left in him before volume and time begin to catch up with him.
Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
Justin Fields put his league-winning upside on display last year. Overall he was the QB5 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 7-11, after the team committed to utilizing his legs more, he was the QB1 in fantasy points per game during this span. The rushing acumen is a known commodity, so there’s no reason to dive headlong into that area. The passing department is where many want to toss shade at Fields to find mind-numbing reasons to fade him. Well, I don’t agree with that at all, and if you look at the right details, you shouldn’t either. In Weeks 7-16, Fields should have proved to the world that his passing prowess is on the rise. During that stretch, he was eighth in adjusted completion rate, 12th in big-time throw rate, and 13th in passer rating (per PFF). Investing in Fields this year feels oddly reminiscent of going all in on Jalen Hurts last year. I’m willing to make that bet all over again.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
I’ll never stop. I can’t stop. I won’t stop with my man crush for Christian Watson. After a slow start last year due to injuries and the need to develop a rapport with his rookie-hating pout-prone former quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Watson’s talent finally bubbled to the top. In Weeks 10-18, Watson had six games in which he played at least 80% of the snaps. In those games, he earned a 23.4% target share, 42.9% end zone target share, and a 26% target per route run rate. He rolled up 3.07 yards per route run during that string of games. If Jordan Love hopes to have a successful season as the new starter in Green Bay, he’ll need to lean on Watson heavily. Watson has monster WR1 upside.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Jerry Jeudy weathered the Russell Wilson stink better than Courtland Sutton in 2022. Sutton dealt with a hamstring strain down the stretch and a grossly ineffective Wilson when he decided to chuck it deep. Jeudy parlayed his 20.8% target share (35th) into a WR19 finish and a 16th ranking in yards per route run. Jeudy’s lower aDOT (11.8, 40th) helped shield Jeudy from the atrocious Wilson deep ball. Jeudy was 11th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Jeudy is a talented player who still has untapped potential in the NFL. With Sean Payton in town, we could have been a year early touting this offense as a breakout unit. Jeudy is a borderline WR2/3.
Drake London (WR – ATL)
If we’ve learned anything over the last few years as fantasy managers, second and third-year wide receivers that have already flashed massive upside are strong bets to make in fantasy. While London didn’t live up to lofty predictions (WR43) as a rookie, everything screams that he is an insanely talented player to double down on in 2023. London posted alpha-level usage metrics ranking fifth in target share (29.4%) and second in target per route run rate (32.4%) among wide receivers. He was also 11th in yards per route run and 16th in open score (per ESPN analytics). London already gave us a peek at his WR2 floor for 2023 during last year’s stretch run. In Weeks 13-18, he was the WR20 in fantasy, even though he failed to score a touchdown in this span. I’ll continue betting on London’s beautiful talent profile.
Round 5 Targets
After the top few rounds are in the books, the name of the game is to continue to take calculated shots on upside. Herbert could be the overall QB1 in Kellen Moore’s fast-paced offense. Pierce looks like an undervalued RB1 this year, while Jeudy could easily be a WR1 this year as the leading option for a resurgent Russell Wilson.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
Herbert is in a fantastic spot to reclaim his top-five fantasy quarterback status this year. Herbert suffered in 2022, watching his passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and yards per attempt all drop off the map. Kellen Moore can help all of those areas rebound this year. Under Moore, expect the Chargers to push the pace and throw downfield, which Joe Lombardi was allergic to. Moore has never directed an offense that ranked outside the top two in neutral script pace. Dak Prescott has ranked inside the top-13 quarterbacks in the NFL in air yards per attempt in three of his last four seasons. If Keenan Allen and Mike Williams stay reasonably healthy, Herbert could post career-best numbers this season.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
J.K. Dobbins is set to put the split backfield worries and the cap on his production in the past. Todd Monken gifted top-ten opportunity shares to Nick Chubb and Peyton Barber in his last two years leading an NFL offense. Bye-bye, Greg Roman. This couldn’t come at a better time as Dobbins’ health should be back to 100%, allowing him to shoulder the load and make some money in a contract year. Dobbins’ talent has never been a question. Last year operating with one healthy leg, he ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway percentage, and 24th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries per PFF). During his rookie season, he was top 12 in each of these metrics (eighth, second, 11th). In most cases, Dobbins will be drafted as a mid to low-end RB2, but he offers RB1 upside.
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
Pierce should be the straw that stirs the drink for Houston in 2022. The coaching room for the Texans is littered with former 49ers staffers, so we shouldn’t be shocked if the team lives and dies by the run game this year as they ease C.J. Stroud in. In his rookie season, Pierce was the RB16 in expected fantasy points per game with 19.8 touches per game in the 12 games he played at least 50% of the snaps. Pierce was also ninth in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in breakaway percentage. Devin Singletary will spell him at times on early downs, but this is Pierce’s backfield. He’s an RB2 with an RB1 upside.
Round 6 Targets
Volume. Volume. Volume. Cam Akers and Diontae Johnson should not be available this late, but because of recency bias, here we are. Draft both with confidence this season and watch as they finish inside the top 15-20 players in fantasy at their respective positions.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
If Akers continues steamrolling opponents in 2023 in a similar fashion to the final few games of last year, he’ll earn himself a nice payday after the season. I love targeting contract-year running backs. When motivation and talent align, it’s a beautiful thing. If you question whether Akers is fully back from the Achilles tear, you must be blinded by the lock. In Weeks 10-18 last season, he was 21st in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in PFF elusive rating (per PFF). In Weeks 13-18, Akers averaged 19.1 touches, 101.8 total yards, and was the RB6 in fantasy points per game. He handled 100% of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line during that time frame. Akers should be the Rams’ workhorse.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
There’s only one explanation for Diontae Johnson’s 2022 season. After an offseason workout in rainy Pittsburgh, he entered his house with an umbrella still drawn and tripped over his black cat, which sent him hurdling into his full-length entryway mirror, thus shattering it into a million pieces. This unlikely yet possible turn of events is the only possible explanation for his wretchedly unlucky season. Despite ranking 13th in target share, 10th in red zone targets, and the WR20 in expected fantasy points per game, Johnson finished the season with zero touchdowns as the WR39 in fantasy points per game. Kenny Pickett‘s play was a factor, but Johnson simply had a terrible run-out. Regression is coming for Johnson and this offense. Johnson still ranked 11th in total route wins, so no skill dropoff is involved here. It’s just a case of legendarily bad luck. Johnson is a WR3 with a top-15 upside.
Round 7 Targets
The only thing you can set your watch to yearly in fantasy is the harsh fade label that some players get saddled with as fantasy GMs believe 1000% in their infallible injury crystal balls. Darren Waller is this year’s crystal ball value king. Cook and Smith-Njigba are talented players who rise above their murky outlooks to crush their ADPs.
Darren Waller (TE – NYG)
Waller will likely be my highest-rostered tight end this year in all formats. The upside case for Waller is worth going overweight for because it isn’t being priced into his ADP. Is injury risk present? Sure, but that fear is what is pushing him down draft boards. If you don’t want to follow me down this road, I get it, but if Waller stays healthy, he will be one of the best value picks of 2023. Waller’s talent hasn’t diminished, and his situation could create a perfect storm for him to rival Travis Kelce. Last year Waller was 13th in receiving grade, 12th in yards per route run, and first in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). The last time we saw Waller flanked by league-average wide receiver talent, he was first in targets (145), first in target share (28.7%), and the TE2 in fantasy points per game. Waller the baller returns in 2023.
James Cook (RB – BUF)
James Cook was explosive with the ball in his hands last season. He has the talent to take over the backfield of one of the best offenses in the NFL this year. That is a player worth betting on, especially at his modest ADP. Last season he ranked 28th in yards after contact per attempt, first in breakaway percentage, and 19th in elusive rating (per PFF). Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are looming goal-line sloths, but Cook has the talent to own the passing downs and eat into the early downs. Cook ranked ninth in yards per route run and sixth in targets per route run last season (minimum 30 targets). Devin Singletary produced RB30 and RB24 fantasy points per game finishes over the last two years with 58-59% opportunity shares. Cook could produce similar (if not better) results on less volume. Cook has RB2 upside at an RB3 price tag.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks’ pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle’s usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let’s discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent. In 2021 he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2021 he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF’s deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect. With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don’t plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don’t want to take anything away from Tyler Lockett, he hasn’t been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he’s never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019 he’s ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
Last year Adam Thielen earned a 17.0% target share and 107 targets. He did this while ranking outside the top 55 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). Why can’t a talented first-round wide receiver match (or easily exceed) these volume numbers in his first season? Addison can. He absolutely can. Addison has ranked 22nd or higher in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade in each of his last two collegiate seasons (minimum 50 targets per PFF). The Vikings were third in neutral passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season. I don’t see them dropping outside the top 5-10 teams this season in either category. Addison could be a WR2 in fantasy if he can pass T.J. Hockenson in the target pecking order.
Round 8 Targets
If you bypassed quarterbacks until now, Jones and Richardson offer the rushing upside we crave. If everything coalesces, they both have top-five upside at the quarterback position. The two receivers in this range that I’ll be overweight on are easy access to pass-heavy offenses.
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)
Ok. Deep breath. Here’s the list of injuries Mike Williams has sustained since entering the NFL: herniated disk, knee strain, back spasms, hamstring strain, hip flexor strain, high ankle sprain (twice), and transverse process fracture. I bring this up because Quentin Johnston could be operating as the Chargers’ WR2 sooner rather than later. That type of upside in his rookie season shouldn’t be ignored in an offensive system that could challenge for the league lead in passing attempts and play volume. Even if he doesn’t supplant Williams this season, Johnston offers this offense a different element as a RAC specialist. Last year Johnston ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Kellen Moore can design looks for Justin Herbert to get Johnston the ball in space and let him do his thing.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
Last year Jones was the QB10 in fantasy points per game with a pathetic group of receiving talent around him. This offseason, the front office continued to add talent to this roster. Is the Giants’ receiver room one of the best in the league? No, but the front office has taken a Kansas City Chiefs-like approach to building out their passing game. Darren Waller will operate as the clear number one option for Jones, with the rest of the group fitting in as role players. Brian Daboll can mix and match wide receiver talents again this year with a deeper and more diverse group to choose from. Jones’ top-five finishes last year in red zone carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns are all replicable in 2023. The big area where Jones can continue to show growth is in the passing department. With more competent weapons in-house from the start of the season, we should see this offense tilt to more passing. After Week 10 last season, the team was 10th in neutral pace, 14th in neutral passing rate, and 11th in play success rate. Jones is a QB1 with a top-five upside if his passing numbers creep up this year.
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
Rushing. Rushing. Rushing. We all know the ceiling and floor-raising ability this skill can have for fantasy quarterbacks. This leads me to kneel at the altar of Anthony Richardson later in fantasy drafts. Expect Shane Steichen to utilize his legs a ton in the design of the Colts’ offense. Last year Jalen Hurts led all quarterbacks in rushing attempts and red zone rushing attempts per game. Richardson could come close to matching that in his rookie season. Richardson is regarded as a raw passer, but Steichen’s system should highlight the best parts of his aerial game while covering up some flaws. Steichen will feature play-action and deep shots in this passing attack, making Richardson’s transition to the NFL easier and offering explosive upside on the field. Last year Jalen Hurts was seventh in deep passing attempts and fourth in play-action passing attempts (per PFF). Richardson is a hand and glove fit with both of these wrinkles. In his final season at Florida, he was fifth in play-action passing grade, 19th in play-action yards per attempt, and 20th in PFF’s deep passing grade (minimum 150 dropbacks or 20 deep pass attempts per PFF). Rushing quarterbacks with cannon arms are my ultimate weak spot.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Courtland Sutton is coming off a disappointing season, but when we peer at deeper efficiency metrics, it’s easy to see the problem wasn’t him. Sutton dipped to 50th in yards per route run and 65th in fantasy points per route run, while he saw a 23.1% target share (25th). This paints the picture that the blame rests upon Sutton’s shoulders until we also see that he was 16th in total route wins and 12th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Only 72.5% (71st) of his targets were catchable, and he ranked 42nd in target quality rating. With a new head wizard in Sean Payton directing this passing attack, there are reasons to buy in on a big Sutton bounceback in 2023. Sutton was 11th in deep targets and 22nd in red zone targets last year. Sutton is an upside WR3.
Later Round Targets
I love the late rounds this season. The board remains full to the brim with tantalizing skill players that can carve lucrative paths in 2023 and one injury-away types that could litter championship rosters.
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)
Was Russell Wilson’s 2022 season grotesque? Wretched? A mountain of Mile High stink? Yes and no. Overall Wilson was a major disappointment, but there is hope for a rebound. After Week 10, Wilson started to turn things around in Denver. After that point, he was eighth in big-time throw rate, seventh in adjusted completion rate, and he had the eighth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (per PFF). With a stocked cupboard of skill players and Sean Paython at the helm, Wilson should be able to build upon his late-season bounceback. If he does, he could be a late-round home run in 2023. Don’t let last year cloud the fact that he was a top-six fantasy quarterback in two of the three years prior. Once I hit the later rounds of drafts, if I’ve decided to wait on a quarterback, it’s time to ride with Wilson for 2023.
Rashaad Penny (RB – PHI)
I know this will be seen as hyperbole, but when healthy, Rashaad Penny has arguably been the most efficient running back in the NFL over the last few seasons. Since 2006, Rashaad Penny has been the only running back to eclipse 4.50 yards after contact per attempt in a single season (2021 per PFF). Penny has led the NFL in yards after contact per attempt in each of the last two seasons with insane 4.52 and 4.23 marks. Over that span, he’s also led the NFL in breakaway run rate in back-to-back seasons. Penny has a plethora of talent; he just needs his health to comply so he can let it shine for a full NFL season. If he can stay healthy, he should have the opportunity to do just that this year. Last year the Eagles were 10th in neutral rushing rate and fourth in red zone scoring attempts per game as their backs operated behind an offensive line that was sixth in adjusted line yards and second in second-level yards (per Football Outsiders). If all the stars align, Penny could be an RB2.
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
Roschon Johnson could take over the starting running back job by mid-season in Chicago, if not earlier, if he has a standout camp and preseason. In college, Johnson was hidden behind Bijan Robinson, so he couldn’t show what he could do with more volume. The glimpses we got of Johnson in college, though, were fantastic. He ranked 11th and 17th in yards after contact per attempt and third and fifth in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries per PFF). Johnson is already arguably the best pass-protecting running back on the roster, which head coach Matt Eberflus has stressed is paramount for his running backs. This should allow him to grab most of the passing-down snaps quickly. Johnson’s upside scenario is as the team’s workhorse, with Herbert or Foreman spelling him occasionally.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC)
Bigsby got the draft capital nod from Jacksonville as they took him in the third round of the NFL Draft. The Jaguars choosing to spend further significant capital on their backfield is interesting. Travis Etienne had a productive season last year, but Bigsby brings a different skill set to this running back room. Bigsby lives up to his first name as a mauler in the open field capable of blowing apart corners attempting to take him down. He was top 15 in yards after contact per attempt and PFF’s elusive rating in two of the last three seasons (minimum 100 carries per PFF). Bigsby could carve out a stand-alone role early as the team’s goal line hammer. Last season Etienne was one of the worst backs in the NFL inside the red zone. In 2022 among 65 qualifying backs, Etienne ranked 57th in red zone touchdown conversion rate. Bigsby can do the dirty work in close, leaving Etienne as an in-between-the-20s electric space back. Bigsby is an RB3/4 with high-end handcuff appeal.
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)
Warren was a late-round crush of mine last year, so I’m running it back, considering what he flashed in his rookie season. Warren was 16th in breakaway run rate, fifth in juke rate, and 18th in fantasy points per opportunity. Warren’s excellence as a receiving threat could also force the Steelers’ hand next season into making this a full-blown committee backfield. Warren proved to be a better pass catcher than Najee Harris last year, ranking fourth in PFF receiving grade (Harris 32nd) and 18th in yards per route run (Warren 1.24, Harris 0.77). In Weeks 5-18, Warren had six weeks as an RB3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring. The path to weekly flex production has already been laid, so he’s not a wasted pick, even as a low-end RB3 or RB4 in drafts. Warren is a priority late-round pick.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
Rashod Bateman looked like a receiver on his way to a breakout campaign before his season was derailed by a foot sprain in Week 4 and ultimately ended in Week 8 with a LisFranc injury. In Weeks 1-3, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, a 30.3% air yard share, and 3.14 yards per route run. Bateman was also only a 72.7% route per dropback player in that stretch. Bateman’s talent is real, but he needs his health to comply. This could be a breaking point season. The team signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft. This will be the best collection of weapons Lamar Jackson has ever had, but that also means it’s the most competition for targets Bateman has dealt with during his time in Baltimore. Bateman has the talent to still emerge as the number one receiver in this offense and compete weekly for the team lead in targets with Mark Andrews. He’s a WR3/4 that could easily finish as a WR2.
Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
Don’t lose faith in Jameson Williams. Despite his six-game suspension, Williams remains an extremely talented wide receiver entering his sophomore season with a mountain of upside. Williams was placed in bubble wrap in 2022 by the Detroit Lions, who valued being careful with their blazing-fast rookie coming off a major injury (ACL tear). Assuming Williams is good to go for 2023, he’s still the same player that ranked 13th in yards per route run among all FBS wide receivers in 2021 (minimum 50 targets). Williams could be the number two option in this passing attack when he returns behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams is a WR4 that could crush his ADP in 2023.
Rondale Moore (WR – ARI)
Moore’s abbreviated sophomore season was impressive. In his seven full games, he garnered a 22.7% target share producing 1.62 yards per route run. He handled a 22% target per route run rate in that stretch. In his full games played, he averaged 12.6 (PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good for WR32 (PPR) in fantasy scoring over the entire season. There are still dominoes to fall in the Cardinals’ passing attack. Will DeAndre Hopkins get traded (he could already be by the time you read this)? Will Kyler Murray play more than half this season (if that)? Moore is a WR4/5 that could easily walk into WR3 production.
Rashid Shaheed (WR – NO)
Rashid Shaheed quietly had one of the most impressive rookie seasons of 2023. While his 488 receiving yards and two scores won’t perk up many eyebrows, I love Shaheed in 2023 in all formats. After earning at least a 60% route per dropback rate last year, Shaheed was an impact player with three top 36 wide receiver weeks over his final seven games. In 2022, Shaheed ranked fourth in yards per route run and 22nd in PFF receiving grade (minimum 30 targets per PFF). Those numbers jump off the page. If Michael Thomas can’t make it back on the field at this point in his career, Shaheed could finish second on the Saints in targets in 2023.
Chase Claypool (WR – CHI)
While consensus is ready to toss in the bag on Chase Claypool, I’m not. So quickly, everyone forgets that Claypool is an uber-athlete. His 90th percentile or higher speed and burst scores can create big plays at the drop of a hat. His rookie season marks of a 25.2% target per route run rate (15th-best) and 0.5 fantasy points per route run (14th-best) were the early signs of big-time talent. Has his value dropped further after a down 2022 season? Yep. That’s exactly why his ADP has dipped to the basement where it resides. Claypool showed promise of fulfilling his rookie season promise in three games with the Bears, in which he played at least 63% of the snaps. In that small three-game sample, he saw a 22.1% target share, a 50% end zone target share, 1.77 yards per route run, and a 28% target per route run rate. Claypool is one of the best WR5 upside darts to toss this year.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
I don’t normally have a heavy infatuation with a wide receiver drafted in the fifth round of the NFL Draft, but I do for Puka Nacua. I won’t apologize for falling head over heels for a wide receiver that you can easily draft with your final pick in best ball drafts and redraft that ranked second and sixth in yards per route run over the last two years (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Nacua has highlight reel body control and strong mitts. Last year he ranked 17th in contested catch rate (minimum ten contested targets per PFF). Nacua has a fairly easy path to playing time this season, with only Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell ahead of him to start camp. Nacua could get some Robert Woods-esque handoffs this year after amassing 357 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns at BYU. Nacua is a smash pick.
Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)
Sean Payton traded up in the second round of the NFL Draft to take the talented rookie from Oklahoma. Mims closes his collegiate career with a 94th percentile yards per reception and 96th percentile breakout age. Mims can work underneath and take the top off defenses with his 4.38 speed. He can also play above the rim with exceptional leaping ability and body control. Mims could be fighting for playing time with Tim Patrick from the outset, but it’s possible he hops him on the depth chart and becomes a full-time starter immediately with a strong camp and preseason. Mims is a fantastic WR5 draft pick to stash on your bench. He could be a stretch-run hero and difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs if this offense bounces back from last year’s pitiful showing.
Isaiah Hodgins (WR – NYG)
Isaiah Hodgins is a priority pick in the later rounds of drafts. Once New York made him a full-time player, he crushed. In Weeks 13-17, he logged four top-24 wide receiver outings in five games. Yes, he also got lucky with touchdowns, as he scored in each of those four games, but those were also a result of Daniel Jones‘ trust in the red zone with Hodgins (five red zone targets in those four games). When looking at Hodgins’ deeper metrics, his production was also related to his underrated talent. Hodgins’ ranked first last year in route win rate and win rate against man coverage. If Hodgins can pick up where he left off last year, he’ll be a screaming value in 2023.
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
Last year, Njoku was the TE8 in fantasy, commanding an 18.6% target share (11th-best) with the second-most red zone targets among tight ends. Njoku’s stock will rise even further if Deshaun Watson does bounce back and resumes his standing among the league’s best quarterbacks. Njoku was also 10th in yards per route run and 12th in fantasy points per route run. If Cleveland becomes an offensive juggernaut in 2023, Njoku is likely smashing his ADP.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)
At this point, you’ve probably got Okonkwo overload with how much he’s been mentioned this offseason around the fantasy football industry. There’s a reason for that. His combination of athleticism and per-route efficiency jumps off the page. It’s a swing for the fences that everyone should be taking. Okonkwo’s 92nd percentile speed score helped him rank third in receiving grade and first in yards per route run last year (per PFF). If he hits this year, he could be a weekly TE1.
Gerald Everett (TE – LAC)
Like Smith Jr., I expect Everett’s offensive environment to be a point-scoring paradise this season. Kellen Moore’s system propped up a lesser talent in Dalton Schultz to fantasy success in previous seasons, so why not a more talented player in Everett this year? Last year Everett ranked 15th in receiving grade, 21st in yards per route run, and 12th in YAC per reception (per PFF). Another low-key metric synonymous with the top tight ends in fantasy yearly is their performance in yards per route run against man coverage. Last year Everett ranked third in yards per route run against man coverage behind only Darren Waller and Mark Andrews (minimum ten man coverage targets per PFF). Everett’s numbers scream that he could be a diamond in the rough.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
