The wait is over. Free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins has agreed to a 2-year, $26-million contract with the Tennessee Titans. The contract could be worth up to $32 million with incentives. Here are the rapid reactions from two of our experts, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown.
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DeAndre Hopkins Signs with Titans
Veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins has reportedly agreed to terms with the Titans on a two-year, $26 million deal with incentives that could push the total compensation to $32 million.
Hopkins, who turned 31 last month, is a 10-year veteran who’s had six seasons with more than 1,000 receiving yards and four seasons with more than 100 catches. After spending his first seven seasons with the Houston Texans, he spent the last three with the Arizona Cardinals.
We haven’t gotten a full regular season from Hopkins in either of the last two years. In 2021, Hopkins played only 10 games, missing three midseason games with a hamstring injury and four late-season contests with a torn MCL. In 2022, he had to serve a six-game PED suspension to open the season, and Hopkins missed the last two games of the season with a knee injury.
Hopkins had met with the Titans and Patriots before agreeing to terms. There were also rumors that the Chiefs and Bills were interested in Hopkins.
Tennessee was a logical destination for DHop, since had arguably the thinnest group of pass catchers in the league before the Hopkins signing. The good news for Hopkins’ fantasy investors is that he should be the Titans’ clear No. 1 receiver. The bad news is that the Titans had the third-fewest pass attempts in the league in 2022 and figure to remain run-heavy as long as RB Derrick Henry is around.
No Tennessee receiver has drawn more than 106 targets over the last year — though A.J. Brown‘s 2020 and 2021 target totals with the Titans would have been beefier had he not missed a handful of games in each of those seasons. But Hopkins had 150 or more targets in six consecutive seasons from 2015 to 2020, and it’s probably a long shot that he’ll reach that threshold in 2023, even if he plays 17 games.
I’m projecting Hopkins to play 15 games, average 8.4 targets a game (his target rate the last two years in Arizona), have a 65% catch rate, and average 12.0 yards per catch (which is 1.2 yards below his career average but in line with his average over the last four years). That works out to 126 targets, 82 receptions and 984 receiving yards. A TD total in the 7-9 range seems like a reasonable guesstimate, as Hopkins has averaged 0.53 touchdowns a game since his second year in the league.
Yes, there’s a slight chance of a significant age-related decline in DHop’s age-31 season. On the other hand, it’s not totally inconceivable that a reinvigorated Hopkins channels the form he displayed just three years ago when he had a 115-catch, 1,406-yard season. I’m ranking Hopkins WR21 in half-point PPR.
In dynasty, Hopkins certainly has short-term value, but it would be unwise to expect more than another two years of quality production. He belongs on dynasty teams with championship aspirations in 2023, not on rebuilding teams.
The Hopkins signing clearly damages the 2023 fantasy outlook for second-year WR Treylon Burks, the Titans’ first-round draft pick in 2022. Burks played 11 games as a rookie and had 33-444-1 on 54 targets. He was considered a popular breakout candidate before the Hopkins signing, largely because Burks would have been the Titans’ No. 1 receiver by default. Now, he’s the clear No. 2. That’s not all bad since Burks will probably get less face time with opponents’ No. 1 cornerbacks now that DHop is around. But fantasy football is a volume game, and it’s hard to imagine Burks getting 100 or more targets if Hopkins is healthy all season. The Titans’ acquisition of Hopkins pushes Burks from high-end WR3 to midrange WR4. I have him ranked WR42.
The other Tennessee pass catcher who could be affected by Hopkins’ arrival is TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, another popular breakout candidate. Okonkwo’s target outlook isn’t as heavily damaged as Burks’, but Hopkins’ presence probably lowers Okonkwo’s ceiling. The 23-year-old Okonkwo, who led all qualifying tight ends in yard per route run (2.61) last season, per PFF, still has breakout appeal, but it’s hard to imagine him drawing more than about 85-90 targets with DHop aboard. I have Okonkwo ranked TE13.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill wasn’t drawing much fantasy interest before the Hopkins signing, and while Tannehill isn’t going to quicken pulses even with Hopkins around, the veteran quarterback is now more appealing in 2QB and superflex leagues and in larger 1QB leagues where drafting a backup QB is prudent. In 2021, Tannehill threw for 3,734 yards in 17 games, with the Titans attempting the seventh-fewest passes in the league. That’s a reasonable yardage estimate for him this year if he stays healthy. Tannehill has averaged 1.56 TD passes a game over the last four years. That works out to 26.5 TD passes over a 17-game season — a reasonable projection for 2023 if Tannehill plays the entire season.
One word of caution for anyone kicking the tires on individual components of the Titans’ passing game: If Tennessee’s season takes the sort of abrupt downward turn the Titans experienced last year, the team could bench Tannehill and insert rookie Will Levis, which would probably crater Tennessee’s passing production in the short term.
It’s worth noting that with Hopkins electing to sign with the Titans, the fantasy value of various pass catchers on the Patriots, Chiefs and Bills is preserved. And since there are no other big-name free-agent WRs still on the market, the target outlooks for the WRs and TEs on those three teams aren’t likely to change much, barring injury.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
DeAndre Hopkins missed the first six games of the season due to suspension and the final two weeks with a knee sprain, but when he was on the field, he proved he hadn’t hit the age cliff yet. Hopkins was the WR9 in fantasy points per game last season, drawing a 29.4% target share (fourth-best) and 43.5% air-yard share (second-best).
Hopkins can still draw volume with the best of them, but his efficiency did tick down a bit as he was 17th in yards per route run and 35th in open rate (tied with Christian Kirk, per ESPN analytics). Hopkins landing in TEN isn’t as sexy as BUF or KC would have been. Expecting WR2 production out of him this season, regardless of the Titans’ run-first offense, isn’t insane.
-Derek Brown
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