Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry, I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be looking to draft a ton this year. Let’s have a great season.
Derek Brown’s Players to Target
Here are my players to target in 2023 fantasy football.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
I know it’s shocking to see Jalen Hurts make my list. It sounded absolutely outrageous last year when I proclaimed Hurts as an MVP candidate until it happened. Well, I’m back on this horse for 2023. Hurts was the QB1 in fantasy points per game, but he can STILL take another step forward this year as a fantasy producer. Assuming his rushing equity stays stable, the passing game could offer a higher ceiling for Hurts this season. If the Eagles’ defense takes a step back or the offensive design is tweaked at all, Hurts could pile up passing yards. Last year, Philadelphia led the entire NFL in plays run with a lead of eight points or more. Why does this matter? Well, the Eagles abandoned the passing game in the second half of games as they leaned on their ground attack to salt the game away. Philadelphia was seventh in passing plays per game in the first half of games last year, versus running the fourth-fewest passing plays per game in the second half. If this tilts in the other direction, we could easily see more passing volume for Hurts. Also lumped into this is the Eagles’ love for running the ball in close. They were second in red zone rushing rate last year, and while we want this to stay at a healthy rate for Hurts’ rushing production, if it tilts even slightly, Hurts could throw for 30 passing touchdowns while still piling up tush push scores.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
The combination of injuries to the Chargers’ wide receiver room and the neutering of the passing attack under Joe Lombardi crushed Justin Herbert last year. He fell from QB2 in fantasy points per game the season before to QB15 last year. His deep ball rate fell from 11.3% in his rookie season to 9.5-9.8% over the last two seasons. Woof! Don’t worry, “social media quarterback” stans. With Kellen Moore now running things, Herbert will be back with a vengeance as a top-tier fantasy option this year. Herbert has finished second in passing attempts and passing yards in each of the last two seasons. That volume is not going anywhere with an offensive coordinator who, since 2019, directed a Dallas offense that was first in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate. Dak Prescott has ranked inside the top-13 quarterbacks in the NFL in air yards per attempt in three of his last four seasons. Passing volume and deep passing will be all the rage in Los Angeles this year, and the addition of Quentin Johnston will insulate this passing attack if an injury or two crops up in season. Herbert will be a top 3-5 fantasy quarterback this season.
Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
Justin Fields put his league-winning upside on display last year. Overall, he was the QB5 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 7-11, after the team committed to utilizing his legs more, he was the QB1 in fantasy points per game. The rushing acumen is a known commodity, so there’s no reason to dive headlong into that area. The passing department is where many want to toss shade at Fields, to find mind-numbing reasons to fade him. Well, I don’t agree with that at all, and if you look at the right details, you shouldn’t either. In Weeks 7-16, Fields should have proved to the world that his passing prowess is on the rise. During that stretch, he was eighth in adjusted completion rate, 12th in big-time throw rate, and 13th in passer rating (per PFF). Investing in Fields this year feels oddly reminiscent of going all in on Jalen Hurts last year. Stack the chips and push them to the middle with Fields in 2023.
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
Break out the streamers and party hats because Lamar Jackson has been liberated. Todd Monken has rode in on his valiant play-volume steed to inject new life into the pace of this offense. He’s ranked inside the top 12 in neutral script pace in three of his last four seasons as an offensive coordinator. With Monken and an army of new skill player additions, Jackson can revisit the torrid pace he started with last year before the receiving depth chart fell apart. In Weeks 1-3 with Rashod Bateman on the field, Jackson was the QB1 in fantasy points per game, averaging a whopping 34.8 points. He was also on his way to a beautiful season through the air, ranking third in passing grade, first in big-time throw rate, and third in yards per attempt (minimum 80 dropbacks per PFF). Jackson could break fantasy football this year as the runaway QB1 overall.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
Danny Dimes rekindled his rookie season hopes last year with his first season above 16.0 fantasy points per game since 2019. Daniel Jones was the QB10 in fantasy points per game while heavily relying on his legs. Jones finished fifth in rushing yards, carries per game, and red zone carries per game. This isn’t to say he didn’t also fashion a rebirth through the air, because he did. Jones finished last season top-12 in pressured completion rate, clean pocket accuracy rating, and deep ball catchable pass rate. The Giants added a truckload of role-playing wide receivers and a dynamic seam-stretching tight end with Darren Waller to assist Jones with taking another step as a passer in 2023. Brian Daboll loosened the reins in the second half last year, and we could see him further uncork this offense this year. Last season after Week 10, the offense was 12th in neutral pace, 14th in neutral passing rate, and 13th in EPA per play. Jones is a low-cost bet that could pay off with a top-five fantasy finish.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
The Bijan Robinson hype train won’t be slowing down anytime soon, and it shouldn’t; the Robinson locomotive will carry people to fantasy titles. He is one of the best running back prospects in recent memory and he landed on a team that was second in neutral script rushing rate and led the NFL in red zone rushing rate last year. Robinson should be considered a lock for 300-plus touches. With that type of volume and his talent profile, he has RB1 overall upside this season. He ranked 11th and 18th in yards after contact per attempt and sixth and third in elusive rating (minimum 100 carries per PFF) over the last two years. The Arthur Smith joke book will be retired when Robinson helps your fantasy teams steamroll the competition.
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
I know my standing with Tony Pollard as my RB1 isn’t the most popular take, but I won’t back down from loving players with otherworldly efficiency, especially ones that step into a lead role. We have long pinned to see Pollard in a lead-back role, and now once we finally get it, people are backing off their Pollard love. Last year Pollard authored an RB8 finish while ranking 30th in snap share (50.9%) and 34th in opportunity share (48.1%). Pollard is a fantasy monster that will be unleashed in 2023. Last season he was top-five in breakaway run rate, yards created per touch, yards per route run, and yards per touch. Pollard will cede some snaps to another back this season, whether that’s Malik Davis, Rico Dowdle, or another replacement level shmo. This won’t deter Pollard from his destiny as a top-three running back in fantasy in 2023. His ceiling is Austin Ekeler 2.0.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
“Dread it, run from it…destiny arrives all the same. And now it’s here.” ‘Mondre season is upon us. Stevenson is one of the best backs in the NFL, and he will be the engine of the Patriots’ offense this year. Last year, he was first in yards after contact per attempt, eighth in breakaway run rate, 18th in yards per route run, and tenth in target per route run rate (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets per PFF). The Patriots leaned on Stevenson heavily last season, as he recorded 12 games with at least 60% of the snaps played, averaging 18.7 touches and 122.8 total yards over that timeframe. In those games, Stevenson had an outstanding 18.8% target share and a 60.1% route run rate. Bill O’Brien tends to lean on one back, and that will be ‘Mondre. During O’Brien’s last five years of leading an NFL offense, his starting running back saw at least a 58.7% opportunity share, with some backs earning up to 73.9% (ninth-best in 2016) of the backfield touches. New England will work in Ezekiel Elliott to give Stevenson a breather occasionally, but he will still be a workhorse playing 65% or more of the weekly snaps. With the size to be the goal line hammer and the soft hands to catch plenty of passes, ‘Mondre can contend for RB1 overall if everything breaks his way.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
Dobbins looks set for a career year in 2023. Todd Monken gifted top-ten opportunity shares to Nick Chubb and Peyton Barber in his last two years leading an NFL offense. This type of workhorse role for Dobbins would be a fantastic new development, as he’s never seen more than 57.5% of the backfield opportunities. Dobbins has been chirping about a new contract as he enters a contract year, and I love to bet on players fighting for their second NFL contract. A hungry and healthy Dobbins should be incredibly productive this year and his talent has never been a question. Last year operating on one healthy leg, Dobbins ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway percentage, and 24th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries per PFF). During his rookie season, he was top 12 in each of these metrics (eighth, second, 11th). Dobbins is an RB2 that offers RB1 upside.
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
Dameon Pierce is ready to rumble in his second NFL season. The 49er influence will be felt in the design of this Houston offense. With a rookie quarterback under center, Pierce should be the straw that stirs the drink for Houston in 2022. In his rookie season, Pierce was the RB16 in expected fantasy points per game with 19.8 touches per game in the 12 games where he played at least 50% of the snaps. Pierce was also ninth in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in breakaway percentage. Devin Singletary will spell him at times on early downs, but this is Pierce’s backfield. He’s an RB2 with RB1 upside.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Lamb finally broke out last year in his third NFL season and entered the WR1 ranks in fantasy (WR7). Last year, he was top-six in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns among wide receivers. Lamb is an elite target earner, ranking ninth in target share (28.7%) and seventh in target per route run rate (30.1%). He was top-seven in route win rate and win rate against man coverage, and it’s possible that we haven’t seen Lamb’s absolute ceiling. He ranked 18th in red zone targets last year, but thankfully ran hot with nine touchdowns (fourth-most). If the Cowboys make Lamb a focal point in the red zone, a 12-14 touchdown campaign isn’t out of the range of outcomes. With Michael Gallup hopefully rounding back into form and adding Brandin Cooks, opposing defenses won’t be able to key in on Lamb as much in 2023.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
St. Brown emphatically proved last year that his rookie season prowess was no fluke. He continued to draw targets at a ridiculous rate, ranking third in target per route run rate and eighth in raw target volume. St. Brown was ninth in yards per route run and eighth in red zone targets. He could enter the top-five fantasy wide receiver discussion this season if his late-season red zone use continues into this upcoming year. In Weeks 10-18, St. Brown led all wide receivers in red zone targets. He carries double-digit receiving touchdown upside this year. With Jameson Williams out of commission for the first six weeks, St. Brown could be headed for a career-defining season. Don’t get burned by bypassing the Sun God in drafts.
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
Even if you had lofty expectations for Chris Olave in his rookie season, he likely still surpassed them. His WR25 finish might not look fantastic, but Olave’s deeper metrics point to a future alpha that could break out in his second year. He was 15th in target share (26.7%), third in air yard share (40.8%), and tenth in yards per route run. Olave was also seventh in open score, immediately behind CeeDee Lamb and Stefon Diggs. That’s some sexy company to keep as a rookie. The return of Michael Thomas return doesn’t worry me at all; Thomas isn’t the same player he was during his prime, producing at a WR3 level when on the field last year. If Thomas can stay on the field and get open at an above-average clip, it should help the sophomore by keeping opposing defenses honest and reluctant to roll extra coverage Olave’s way. Olave can be a WR1 if Derek Carr is a league-average passer.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
The elderly and injured slander has gone far enough. Allen didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year, and he has started at least 13 games in each of the five seasons prior to 2022. Last year, Allen ranked 12th in receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run (per PFF). The yards per route run mark was his highest (2.08) since the 2.32 he posted in 2018. Once healthy last season, Allen was crushing souls in his usual high-volume role and was the WR3 in fantasy points per game. With Kellen Moore dictating the play calling, the Chargers could lead the NFL in passing attempts and plays run. This means more volume and a higher upside for Allen in 2023. He is a WR1 that’s being drafted as a WR2. If you want to wait on the wide receiver position some, I feel comfortable with Allen as my WR1 entering the season.
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)
It’s been too long. I’m ready to bet on Calvin Ridley hitting the ground running with a blowout bounce-back campaign in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence tickled our spider senses last year by flashing elite upside at the quarterback position. Ridley should have no problem earning the alpha WR1 role in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. The last time we saw Ridley with a set of pads on, he was seventh in target share (27.4%), fourth in air yard share (40.0%), and fifth in route win rate. No, I’m not even worried about “rust.” I don’t think Ridley forgot how to get open after time away from the game, and you shouldn’t either. Ridley will be a player that I will be heavily exposed to in redraft and best ball formats in 2023.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
At this point, I should get “Christian Watson stan” tattooed on my chest. My love for Watson is never-ending. After a slow start last year due to injuries and the need to develop a rapport with his rookie-hating pouty former quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Watson’s talent finally bubbled to the top. In Weeks 10-18, Watson had six games in which he played at least 80% of the snaps. In those games, he earned a 23.4% target share, 42.9% end zone target share, and a 26% target per route run rate. He rolled up 3.07 yards per route run during that string of games. Watson ranked 14th in open score last year, immediately behind Garrett Wilson. If Jordan Love hopes to have a successful season as the new starter in Green Bay, he’ll need to lean on Watson heavily. Watson has monster WR1 upside.
Drake London (WR – ATL)
If we’ve learned anything over the last few years as fantasy managers, it’s that second- and third-year wide receivers that have already flashed massive upside are strong bets to make in fantasy. Drake London is a bet on talent that I’m willing to make. Yes, the situation is less than ideal, but if the team moves toward passing a bit more (league average or a tick below), London will crush his ADP. He posted alpha-level usage metrics last year, ranking fifth in target share (29.4%) and second in target per route run rate (32.4%) among wide receivers. He was also 11th in yards per route run and 16th in open score (per ESPN analytics). London already gave us a peek at his WR2 floor during last year’s stretch run’ in Weeks 13-18, he was the WR20 in fantasy, even though he failed to score a touchdown in this span. I’ll continue betting on London’s beautiful talent profile.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
There’s only one explanation for Diontae Johnson’s 2022 season; after an offseason workout in rainy Pittsburgh, he entered his house with an umbrella still drawn and tripped over his black cat, which sent him hurdling into his full-length entryway mirror, thus shattering it into a million pieces. This unlikely yet possible turn of events is the only explanation for his wretchedly unlucky season. Despite ranking 13th in target share, tenth in red zone targets, and the WR20 in expected fantasy points per game, Johnson finished the season with zero touchdowns as the WR39 in fantasy points per game. Kenny Pickett‘s play was a factor, but Johnson simply had a terrible run-out. Regression is coming for Johnson and this offense. He still ranked 11th in total route wins, so no skill dropoff is involved here, it’s just a case of legendarily bad luck. Johnson is a WR3 with top-15 upside.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks’ pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle’s usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let’s discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent. In 2021, he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2022, he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF’s deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect. With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don’t plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don’t want to take anything away from Tyler Lockett, he hasn’t been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he’s never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019, he’s ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
Rashod Bateman looked like a receiver on his way to a breakout campaign before his season was derailed by a foot sprain in Week 4 and ultimately ended in Week 8 with a LisFranc injury. In Weeks 1-3, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, a 30.3% air yard share, and 3.14 yards per route run. He was also only a 72.7% route per dropback player in that stretch. Bateman’s talent is real, but he needs his health to comply and this could be a breaking point season. The team signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft. This will be the best collection of weapons Lamar Jackson has ever had, but that also means it’s the most competition for targets Bateman has dealt with during his time in Baltimore. He has the talent to still emerge as the number one receiver in this offense and compete weekly with Mark Andrews to the team lead in targets with Mark Andrews. He’s a WR3/4 that could easily finish as a WR2.
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)
Ok, Deep breath. Here’s the list of injuries Mike Williams has sustained since entering the NFL: herniated disk, knee strain, back spasms, hamstring strain, hip flexor strain, high ankle sprain (twice), and transverse process fracture. I bring this up because Quentin Johnston could be operating as the Chargers’ WR2 sooner rather than later. That type of upside in his rookie season shouldn’t be ignored in an offensive system that could challenge for the league lead in passing attempts and play volume. Even if he doesn’t supplant Williams this season, Johnston offers this offense a different element as a YAC specialist. Last year, Johnston ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Kellen Moore can design looks for Justin Herbert to get Johnston the ball in space and let him do his thing.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
Kelce is a difference-maker and worth a top-five selection in any draft. He showed no drop off in his production last year, ranking first in receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game at the tight end position. His skills remain razor-sharp, as he was also second in yards per route run and fourth in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). Even comparing his fantasy production to other positions, Kelce deserves high praise. He would have been the RB5 and WR6 in fantasy points per game last year. Kelce is set for another stellar season if he can continue holding off Father Time.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
Andrew has not finished lower than TE5 in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons. Despite Lamar Jackson struggling and Tyler Huntley being unable to deliver an accurate pass in 2022, Andrews was still the TE3 in fantasy. He commanded a 29.0% target share (first) and was fourth in red zone targets. Andrews was also sixth in receiving grade and third in yards per route run (per PFF). While his target share could dip with more receiving talent on the depth chart this year, the overall passing volume will rise to compensate. Andrews is one of the few tight ends that can give Kelce a run for his money for TE1 in 2023.
Darren Waller (TE – NYG)
Waller will likely be my highest-rostered tight end this year in all formats. The upside case for Waller is worth going overweight for, because it isn’t being priced into his ADP. Is injury risk present? Sure, but that fear is what’s pushing him down draft boards. If you don’t want to follow me down this road, I get it, but if Waller stays healthy, he will be one of the best value picks of 2023. Waller’s talent hasn’t diminished, and his situation could create a perfect storm for him to rival Travis Kelce. Last year, Waller was 13th in receiving grade, 12th in yards per route run, and first in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). The last time we saw Waller flanked by league-average wide receiver talent, he was first in targets (145), first in target share (28.7%), and the TE2 in fantasy points per game. Waller the baller will be back in 2023.
Gerald Everett (TE – LAC)
I expect Everett’s offensive environment to be a point-scoring paradise this season. Kellen Moore’s system propped up a lesser talent in Dalton Schultz to fantasy success in previous seasons, so why not a more talented player in Everett this year? Everett ranked 15th in receiving grade, 21st in yards per route run, and 12th in YAC per reception last year (per PFF). Another low-key metric synonymous with the top tight ends in fantasy yearly is their performance in yards per route run against man coverage. Last year, he ranked third in yards per route run against man coverage behind only Darren Waller and Mark Andrews (minimum ten man coverage targets per PFF). Everett’s numbers scream that he could be a diamond in the rough.
Jelani Woods (TE – IND)
Yep. I’m going deep with this one. If Gerald Everett isn’t THE late-round tight end this year, it’s because Jelani Woods has broken out gloriously. Woods checks more than a few boxes I look at when searching for a breakout tight end. First is athleticism, which can never be questioned with Woods and his 95th percentile burst score and 82nd percentile agility score. Next is efficiency and last year, Woods was 14th in yards per route run and ninth in yards per route run against man coverage. Frank Reich and his Russian Roulette usage of tight ends is gone. Shane Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter have historically both relied upon one tight end, with Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, and Dallas Goedert among those names. Woods can be that guy this year and he can sneak into the top-12 tight ends in fantasy if he earns the role.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
