DBro’s Late Round Fantasy Football Draft Strategy & Top Targets (2023)

DBro’s Late Round Fantasy Football Draft Strategy & Top Targets (2023)

We have a brand new season of fantasy football on the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy.

The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts. These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Regardless of whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB, or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the late rounds and they can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.

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DBro’s Late Round Draft Strategy (2023 Fantasy Football)

*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

Approach to players outside the top 100

Quarterbacks

  • Geno Smith: What does Chef Geno have to do? After posting a QB8 season last year, I would think fantasy GMs would be clamoring to draft Smith this year, but that is sadly not the case. Was he a flash in the pan? Possibly, but if he isn’t, he’ll be one of the best values on the board this year. Smith excelled in nearly every passing metric in 2022. He was fifth in big-time throw rate, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. Seattle added supreme prospects in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet while also fortifying the offensive line depth with two late selections in the NFL Draft. There is a lot to like here, and Chef Geno should cook up an 18-week course of fantasy football goodness this year.

  • Russell Wilson: Was Russell Wilson’s 2022 season grotesque? Wretched? A Mile High mountain of stink? Yes and no. Overall, Wilson was a major disappointment, but there is hope for a rebound. After Week 10, he started to turn things around in Denver. From that point on, he was eighth in big-time throw rate, seventh in adjusted completion rate, and had the eighth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate per PFF. With a stocked cupboard of skill players and Sean Payton at the helm, Wilson should be able to build upon his late-season bounce-back. If he does, he could be a late-round home run in 2023. Don’t let last year cloud the fact that he was a top-six fantasy quarterback in two of the three years prior. Once I hit the later rounds of drafts, if I’ve decided to wait on a quarterback, it’s time to ride with Wilson for 2023.
  • Kenny Pickett: Ok, let me preface this, as I know Steelers’ fans will read this and immediately think, “Wait…I thought he was a Kenny Pickett hater.” My disdain for Pickett was not centered around his ability to become a league-average quarterback, but more along the lines of questioning his ceiling in the NFL. With new information, it’s time to adjust my thinking about that. We always have to stay liquid in fantasy football. Based on his end-of-season finish down the stretch, I could have been selling Pickett short. In Weeks 12-18 last year, he ranked first in passing grade, fourth in big-time throw rate, and first in deep passing grade (minimum 50 dropbacks, per PFF). During that span, the Steelers offense was third in EPA per play and passing EPA per play. Pickett should have more time in the pocket than last year, since the Steelers re-made the left side of an offensive line that, as a whole, ranked 15th in PFF pass-blocking grade last year. Adding Broderick Jones and Isaac Seumalo (tenth in PFF pass-blocking grade among guards with at least 150 blocking snaps last year) to this front five will pay massive dividends. Pickett is a great late-round dart that could walk into QB1 production this year.

Running Backs

  • Samaje Perine: Perine outplayed Joe Mixon last year in Cincinnati. Yeah, I said it. Perine should get the uptick in workload that he deserves this year in Denver. Last year, he was 24th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 75 carries). He’s displayed an excellent three-down skill set over the last two years. In the four games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps, he averaged 19.5 touches and 103.6 total yards with RB3, RB10, RB18, and RB2 finishes in weekly fantasy scoring. Denver could require his every down skill set for most of this season, depending on the health of Javonte Williams, who is still recovering from a catastrophic knee injury last year. With only Tony Jones Jr. and Tyler Badie behind him on the depth chart, Perine should have no problem capturing a 70% snap share in any games Williams misses as well as having a stand-alone role when Williams is active.
  • Rashaad Penny: I know this will be seen as hyperbole, but when healthy, Rashaad Penny has arguably been the most efficient running back in the NFL over the last few seasons. Since 2006, Penny has been the only running back to eclipse 4.50 yards after contact per attempt in a single season (the 2021 season, per PFF). Penny has also led the NFL in yards after contact per attempt in each of the last two seasons, with outrageous 4.52 and 4.23 marks. Penny also led the NFL in breakaway run rate in back-to-back seasons. He has a plethora of talent, he just needs his health to comply so he can let it shine for a full NFL season. If he can stay healthy, he should have the opportunity to do just that this year. Last year, the Eagles were tenth in neutral rushing rate and fourth in red zone scoring attempts per game, and their backs operated behind an offensive line that was sixth in adjusted line yards and second in second-level yards (per Football Outsiders). If all the stars align, Penny could be an RB2.

  • Roschon Johnson: Roschon Johnson could take over the starting running back job in Chicago by midseason, if not earlier if he has a standout camp and preseason. In college, Johnson was hidden behind Bijan Robinson, so he couldn’t show what he could do with more volume. The glimpses we did get of Johnson in college, however, were fantastic. He ranked 11th and 17th in yards after contact per attempt, and third and fifth in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries, per PFF). Johnson is already arguably the best pass-protecting running back on the roster, which head coach Matt Eberflus has stressed is paramount for his running backs. This should allow him to grab most of the passing-down snaps quickly. Johnson’s upside scenario is as the team’s workhorse, with Herbert or Foreman spelling him occasionally.
  • Tank Bigsby: Bigsby got the draft capital nod from Jacksonville as they took him in the third round of the NFL Draft. The fact that the Jaguars chose to spend some significant capital on their backfield is interesting. Travis Etienne had a productive season last year, but Bigsby brings a different skill set to this running back room. Bigsby lives up to his first name as a mauler in the open field capable of blowing apart corners that try to take him down. He was top-15 in yards after contact per attempt and PFF’s elusive rating in two of the last three seasons (minimum 100 carries, per PFF). Bigsby could carve out a stand-alone role early as the team’s goal line hammer. Last season, Etienne was one of the worst backs in the NFL inside the red zone. In 2022, Etienne ranked 57th among 65 qualifying backs in red zone touchdown conversion rate. Bigsby can do the dirty work in close, leaving Etienne as an in-between-the-20s electric space back. Bigsby is an RB3/4 with high-end handcuff appeal.
  • Jaylen Warren: Warren was a late-round crush of mine last year, so I’m running it back considering what he flashed in his rookie season. Warren was 16th in breakaway run rate, fifth in juke rate, and 18th in fantasy points per opportunity. Warren’s excellence as a receiving threat could also force the Steelers’ hand this upcoming season and make this a full-blown committee backfield. Warren proved to be a better pass catcher than Najee Harris last year, ranking fourth in PFF receiving grade (Harris was 32nd) and 18th in yards per route run (Warren had 1.24, Harris had 0.77). In Weeks 5-18, Warren had six performances as an RB3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring. The path to weekly flex production has already been laid, so he’s not a wasted pick, even as a low-end RB3 or RB4 in drafts. Warren is a priority late-round pick.

Final Round picks

  • DeWayne McBride: With Dalvin Cook out of Minnesota, don’t rule out McBride stealing the early down role away from Alexander Mattison by the end of the season. Mattison is the biggest hurdle McBride has to jump to grab the role, but Mattison isn’t insurmountable. His per-carry efficiency has been dropping since he hit the league. His yards after contact per attempt and breakaway percentage have dropped in each of his four seasons in the NFL. In 2022, Mattison ranked 41st in yards after contact per attempt and 60th in breakaway percentage among 61 rushers with at least 70 rushing attempts (per PFF). On paper, McBride is one of the best tackle-breaking backs from this draft class. Over the last two years in college, McBride has ranked top-12 in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway rate, and PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). Mattison feels like a classic dead zone back that I’m ok with heavily fading this year, especially with McBride as a late-round option.

Wide Receivers

  • Rashod Bateman: Rashod Bateman looked like a receiver on his way to a breakout campaign before his season was derailed by a foot sprain in Week 4 and ultimately ended in Week 8 with a Lisfranc injury. In Weeks 1-3, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game, with an 18.8% target share, a 30.3% air yard share, and 3.14 yards per route run. Bateman also only had a 72.7% route per dropback rate in that stretch. Bateman’s talent is real, but he needs his health to comply and this could be a breaking point season. The team signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft. This will be the best collection of weapons Lamar Jackson has ever had, but that also means it’s the most competition for targets that Bateman has dealt with during his time in Baltimore. He has the talent to still emerge as the number one receiver in this offense and compete weekly for the team lead in targets with Mark Andrews. He’s a WR3/4 that could easily finish as a WR2.
  • Quentin Johnston: Ok. Deep breath. Here’s the list of injuries Mike Williams has sustained since entering the NFL: herniated disk, knee strain, back spasms, hamstring strain, hip flexor strain, high ankle sprain (twice), and transverse process fracture. I bring this up because Quentin Johnston could be operating as the Chargers’ WR2 sooner rather than later. That type of upside in his rookie season shouldn’t be ignored in an offensive system that could challenge for the league lead in passing attempts and play volume. Even if he doesn’t supplant Williams this season, Johnston offers this offense a different element as a RAC specialist. Last year Johnston ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Kellen Moore can design looks for Justin Herbert to get Johnston the ball in space and let him do his thing.
  • Jameson Williams: Don’t lose faith in Jameson Williams. Despite his six-game suspension, Williams remains an extremely talented wide receiver entering his sophomore season with a mountain of upside. Williams was placed in bubble wrap in 2022 by the Detroit Lions, who took a cautious approach with their blazing-fast rookie coming off a major injury (ACL tear). Assuming Williams is good to go for 2023, he’s still the same player that ranked 13th in yards per route run among all FBS wide receivers in 2021 (minimum 50 targets). Williams could be the number two option in this passing attack when he returns behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams is a WR4 that could crush his ADP in 2023.

  • Rondale Moore: Moore’s abbreviated sophomore season was impressive. In his seven full games, he garnered a 22.7% target share producing 1.62 yards per route run. He handled a 22% target per route run rate in that stretch. In his full games played, he averaged 12.6 (PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good for WR32 (PPR) in fantasy scoring over the entire season. There’s still a domino to fall in the Cardinals’ passing attack. Will Kyler Murray play more than half this season (if that)? Moore is a WR4/5 that could easily walk into WR3 production.

Final Round Picks

  • Rashid Shaheed: Rashid Shaheed quietly had one of the most impressive rookie seasons of 2023. While his 488 receiving yards and two scores won’t perk up many eyebrows, I love Shaheed in 2023 in all formats. After earning at least a 60% route per dropback rate last year, Shaheed was an impact player with three top-36 wide receiver weeks over his final seven games. In 2022, Shaheed ranked fourth in yards per route run and 22nd in PFF receiving grade (minimum 30 targets, per PFF). Those numbers jump off the page. If Michael Thomas can’t make it back on the field at this point in his career, Shaheed could finish second in targets on the Saints in 2023.

  • Chase Claypool: While consensus is ready to throw in the towel on Chase Claypool, I’m not. Everyone forgets so quickly that Claypool is an uber-athlete. His 90th percentile or higher speed and burst scores can create big plays at the drop of a hat. His rookie season marks of a 25.2% target per route run rate (15th-best) and 0.5 fantasy points per route run (14th-best) were the early signs of big-time talent. Has his value dropped after a down season in 2022? Yep. That’s exactly why his ADP has dipped to its current basement location. Claypool showed promise of living up to his rookie season flashes in three games with the Bears, in which he played at least 63% of the snaps. In that small three-game sample, he saw a 22.1% target share, a 50% end zone target share, 1.77 yards per route run, and a 28% target per route run rate. Claypool is one of the best WR5 upside darts to toss this year.
  • Puka Nacua: I don’t normally have a heavy infatuation with a wide receiver taken in the fifth round of the NFL Draft, but I do for Puka Nacua. I won’t apologize for falling head over heels for a wide receiver that you can easily draft with your final pick in best ball and redraft that ranked second and sixth in yards per route run over the last two years (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Nacua has highlight-reel body control and strong mitts. Last year, he ranked 17th in contested catch rate (minimum ten contested targets, per PFF). Nacua has a fairly easy path to playing time this season, with only Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell ahead of him to start camp. He could get some Robert Woods-esque handoffs this year after amassing 357 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns at BYU. Nacua is a smash pick.

  • Marvin Mims: Sean Payton traded up in the second round of the NFL Draft to take the talented rookie from Oklahoma. Mims closes his collegiate career with a 94th percentile yards per reception and 96th percentile breakout age. Mims can work underneath and take the top off defenses with his 4.38 speed. He can also play above the rim with exceptional leaping ability and body control. With Tim Patrick lost to injury, Mims will be a full-time starter immediately in Week 1. Mims is a fantastic WR5 draft pick to stash on your bench. He could be a stretch-run hero and difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs if this offense bounces back from last year’s pitiful showing.
  • Isaiah Hodgins: Isaiah Hodgins is a priority pick in the later rounds of drafts. Once New York made him a full-time player, he crushed it. In Weeks 13-17, he logged four top-24 wide receiver outings in five games. Yes, he also got lucky with touchdowns as he scored in each of those four games, but those were a result of Daniel Jones‘ trust in Hodgins in the red zone, garnering five red zone targets in those four games. When looking at his deeper metrics, his production was also related to his underrated talent. Hodgins ranked first last year in route win rate and win rate against man coverage. If Hodgins can pick up where he left off last year, he’ll be a screaming value in 2023.

Tight Ends

  • David Njoku: Last year, Njoku was the TE8 in fantasy, commanding an 18.6% target share (11th-best) with the second-most red zone targets among tight ends. Njoku’s stock will rise even further if Deshaun Watson does bounce back and resumes his standing among the league’s best quarterbacks. He was also tenth in yards per route run and 12th in fantasy points per route run. If Cleveland becomes an offensive juggernaut in 2023, Njoku is likely smashing his ADP.
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo: At this point, you’ve probably got Okonkwo overload with how much he’s been mentioned this offseason around the fantasy football industry. There’s a reason for that though. His combination of athleticism and per-route efficiency jumps off the page. It’s a swing for the fences that everyone should be taking. His 92nd percentile speed score helped him rank third in receiving grade and first in yards per route run last year (per PFF). If he hits this year, Okonkwo could be a weekly TE1.

Final Round Picks

  • Irv Smith Jr.: These final two tight ends provide dirt-cheap access to high-powered offenses with tons of touchdown equity. Last year, Cincinnati was seventh in points per game and ninth in red zone scoring attempts per game. In Weeks 1-12, this scoring bonanza carried Hayden Hurst to TE12 in fantasy points per game before his calf strain. Irv Smith Jr. isn’t a world-beater, but neither is Hurst, who was fifth in routes per game last year. The combination of Joe Burrow‘s arm, the Bengals’ touchdown-happy offense, and Smith Jr. as the unquestioned every-down starter could be the perfect recipe to coax a top-12 fantasy season out of Irv Smith Jr.
  • Gerald Everett: Like Smith Jr., I expect Everett’s offensive environment to be a point-scoring paradise this season. Kellen Moore’s system propped up a lesser talent in Dalton Schultz to fantasy success in previous seasons, so why not a more talented player in Everett this year? Last year, Everett ranked 15th in receiving grade, 21st in yards per route run, and 12th in YAC per reception (per PFF). Another under-the-radar metric synonymous with the top tight ends in fantasy each year is their performance in yards per route run against man coverage. Last year, Everett ranked third in yards per route run against man coverage behind only Darren Waller and Mark Andrews (minimum ten man coverage targets, per PFF). Everett’s numbers scream that he could be a diamond in the rough.

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