DBro’s Fantasy Football Draft Busts to Avoid (2023)

Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry. I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be avoiding like the plague. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.

More Fantasy Football Advice
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid

Here are a few of my players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football.

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)

Could Watson bounce back in his second season in Cleveland? Sure, it’s possible, but the quarterback position is far too plentiful, with options up and down draft boards that could actualize a similar ceiling. My pessimism about Watson also stems from the fact that he wasn’t just league average last year in his return. He was incredibly putrid. Seeing him operate at such a pedestrian level can be explained away to an extent, but it can’t be unseen. Watson had the 10th-highest turnover-worthy play rate and the fourth-lowest big-time throw rate. Only Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Daniel Jones had lower big-time throw rates last season. Even when Watson operated in a clean pocket, he was an utter mess. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 33rd in clean pocket passer rating. There are plenty of upside arms to target in the middle and later rounds of fantasy football drafts that it’s not worth chasing Watson’s possible upside and absorbing the sizable risk that he might just not have the magic anymore.

Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)

Questions swirl around Kyler Murray from a health standpoint and regarding the offensive system being installed in the desert in 2023. Murray tore his ACL in Week 14 of last season, and with the Cardinals having one of the worst rosters in the NFL, we may not see Murray until late this season. Murray has been a perennial fantasy difference-maker with two top-five fantasy points per game seasons under his belt. Still, I’m not drafting a quarterback of all positions with a murky recovery timeline. Also, we have no clue what the Cardinals’ offensive system will be this year and if it will be any good. Arizona hired Drew Petzing to be the offensive coordinator. This will be his first season leading an NFL offense after nine seasons as an offensive assistant, wide receivers coach, tight end coach, and quarterback coach. Could Murray burn me as I shy away in 2023? Possible but not likely. There are too many other quarterbacks to take shots on for upside throughout fantasy drafts to absorb the risk of Murray in search of upside.