Las Vegas Raiders

Will Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs maintain high-level fantasy value?

With a Vegas win total of 6.5, the Raiders are expected to be cellar dwellers in 2023. If the team is as bad as expected, does that mean its top offensive stars are unlikely to provide a satisfying return on investment in fantasy? Davante Adams finished WR2 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last season, and Josh Jacobs finished RB3. Adams spent the first eight years of his NFL career playing with QB Aaron Rodgers, then joined former Fresno State teammate Derek Carr in Las Vegas last year.

Now, Adams is going to be paired with Jimmy Garoppolo, a game-manager type who isn’t an aggressive downfield thrower. There are questions about the fitness of Garoppolo’s foot, as he’s still recovering from offseason surgery. If Jimmy G isn’t able to answer the call in Week 1, the Raiders’ QB prospects will be bleak. Adams has expressed displeasure with the direction of the Las Vegas offense — an ominous sign. Jacobs, meanwhile, led the NFL with 1,643 rushing yards last year and punched in 12 touchdowns. This was after the Raiders declined to pick up his fifth-year option. The Raiders have given Jacobs the franchise tag, but he remains unsigned and seems displeased with the situation. If Jacobs is unhappy and playing in a bad offense, can he come close to duplicating his splendid 2022 numbers? Adams’ ADP in half-point PPR scoring is WR18 and No. 14 overall, according to FantasyPros, while Jacobs is RB7 and No. 18 overall. For a pair of players with top-20 ADPs, Adams and Jacobs have the potential to be major fantasy disappointments.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

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Los Angeles Chargers

Can Quentin Johnston break out in his rookie season?

Quentin Johnston’s breakout path could be forged in several ways, with injuries to Keenan Allen or Mike Williams or with Johnston’s talent asserting itself in this offense. Johnston offers inside/outside versatility, and a YAC element neither Allen nor Williams has at this stage of their careers. With Kellen Moore directing the offense, the play volume should be present for all three big receivers to earn plenty of volume this year.
-Derek Brown

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Los Angeles Rams

Is 2023 finally Cam Akers szn?

It’s now or never for Cam Akers. The former 2020 second-rounder has had a roller-coaster career through three seasons filled with some great highs and rock-bottom lows. One minute he’s touting the rock 20-plus times per game as the Rams bell cow, and the next minute he’s a healthy scratch. Throw in an Achilles injury that he was able to come back from in the same calendar year, and there’s virtually nothing that hasn’t been thrown Akers’s way for him to overcome.

And that’s the most important part to remember about the just-turned-24-year-old as we project him forward. This dude has been through the absolute ringer of adversities faced by an NFL running back. And yet, he overcame it all during the last part of the 2022 season when he was LA’s entire offense. He finished the season as the RB4 in the final six weeks leading the NFL in rushing yards (85 yards/game). He’s finally gained the full trust of head coach Sean McVay who has already spoken about Akers being a “central figure” in their plans in 2023. With Matthew Stafford returning and little competition for touches (Sony Michel, 2.9 ypc in 2022 – child, please) in the L.A. backfield, 2023 will be Cam Akers szn.
-Andrew Erickson

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Miami Dolphins

Who will lead the Dolphins in carries in 2023?

Until the ink has dried on Dalvin Cook‘s contract in South Beach (if it happens), my money is with El Jefe to lead this team in opportunities. Jeff Wilson led the team in red zone rushing attempts last year while proving he can still create big plays on the ground at a high rate. He ranked ninth in breakaway run rate and 14th in yards per touch last season. Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane will still demand work in this backfield, but Wilson should lead the way.
-Derek Brown

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Minnesota Vikings

Who is the RB2 to target late in drafts in Minnesota?

Alexander Mattison has risen up the depth chart and now sits on the starter’s throne. Now the big query becomes, who will take his place as the backup to garner in fantasy? Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu, and DeWayne McBride will be busy in training camp, trying to cement themselves as the primary backup. Currently, my money is on McBride to seize this job. Chandler is an explosive player and a good fit for a zone running scheme, but he can’t break tackles like McBride. In each of his final two seasons in college, McBride ranked inside the top 12 in yards after contact per attempt, elusive rating, and breakaway rate (per PFF). Nwangwu is an athletic freak in his own right, but the team would be wise to continue to utilize his talents on kick returns. McBride proved in college that he could shoulder the load, so don’t be surprised when he’s named the RB2 for Minnesota.
-Derek Brown

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New England Patriots

How much better can this offense be with Bill O’Brien?

I can say unequivocally that the Patriots’ offense was a complete joke last season, outside of Rhamondre Stevenson. If Stevenson wasn’t ripping off a massive run, this team was not doing anything on offense. Their biggest issue was in the red zone, where their offense, led by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, ranked dead last in conversion rate. Coaching – or their lack of it – shows up more when the field tightens. And with Dumb and Dumber leading the charge, it comes as no surprise to see these porous numbers. Or to see Mac Jones take a substantial step back in Year 2, so much so that a Bailey Zappe hive transpired (still ongoing).

But with Bill O’Brien – a legitimate offensive play caller/mind – this offense is going to improve drastically. Because what Jones did as a rookie under Josh McDaniels is much more indicative of what the 2023 Patriots offense can be. The unit ranked top-10 in EPA/dropback and red-zone scoring rate. Jones posted the sixth-highest passer rating (92.5) and second-highest completion percentage (67.6%) for a rookie quarterback with at least 300 attempts in NFL history. And as bad as last year was, Jones still showed some promise. When Jones operated from a clean pocket (a sticky stat for QBs from year to year), he was PFF’s 5th-highest passer. He ranked 16th in that category in 2021. With free agent additions such as JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki, we should easily see this offense get back *at worst* league average.
-Joe Pisapia/Andrew Erickson

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New Orleans Saints

How should fantasy managers play the looming Alvin Kamara suspension?

I find myself frequently avoiding the Saints RB room in many of my articles due to the total ambiguity of the situation. As of this writing, Alvin Kamara’s court date is set for July 31, with any repercussions likely following that. For the sake of uncertainty, let’s estimate Kamara is suspended for the first six weeks of the season. That aligns with what players typically get knocked on for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. And considering how soft the Saints’ schedule is overall and to open the season, I’d bet the team leans into Kamara taking on the suspension earlier rather than later should he go through the appeal process. Teams want to hit their stride in the second half of the year, and keeping Kamara fresh would be in their best interest.

With Kamara out for six weeks, Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller immediately become extremely enticing options. Ergo, you should be drafting both with ADPs outside the top 30 and sometimes top-40 RBs (platform-specific). The team invested in both RBs through free agency and the NFL Draft because they likely knew Kamara would be slated to miss some time. Why else would they sign Williams to a three-year deal with $8 million guaranteed? Or draft Miller 71st overall? They are going to have roles when Kamara misses time at some point this season. That’s just not reflected enough in their ADPs. Furthermore, their ADPs are at a price where you could still draft them at value, knowing that Kamara wouldn’t miss games (injuries withstanding). Williams is being drafted alongside the likes of A.J. Dillon, Rashaad Penny, Khalil Herbert, Elijah Mitchell, etc. A la the same tier of No. 2 real-life RBs he would already be drafted around should Kamara have no suspension looming. He’s free money in drafts.

Remember, the Saints coaching staff has never shied away from featuring the likes of backup grinders such as Latavius Murray/Mark Ingram with a healthy AK41 and when he has missed time in the past. Miller is more of the home-run lottery ticket option, as his explosive skill set gives him the ability to usurp Williams entirely. I prefer him more in the best ball format, as he seems destined to be a featured asset down the stretch. As for Kamara himself, his price is more accurately baking in his potential suspension, unlike with the other two RBs. But aside from his suspension, he has NOT a lot going in his favor. Williams and Miller are legitimate snap/touch threats, especially in the red zone. Taysom Hill remains a threat in the red zone. Kamara’s receiving usage was hot garbage last season, with his target share dropping from 22% to 11%. The Saints RB never caught more than two passes in any game from Weeks 13-18, and his days as a game-breaking receiver seem to be long gone. His rushing production was also subpar, finishing second worst in the rushing EPA (-41) and managing only two games with over 65 rushing yards before the schedule eased up in the final four games. So, although I understand the “get Kamara at a discount” rhetoric due to his suspension, I think the better way to approach the better ambiguity is through the untapped upside of the other RBs on the depth chart, particularly with the rookie Miller.
-Andrew Erickson

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New York Giants

Who will emerge as Daniel Jones‘ No. 1 pass-catcher?

Darren Waller joins an elite tight-end group of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews as the first pass-catcher drafted from his respective team. The market is placing its chips in on the Giants’ prized free agent acquisition to be the No. 1 target for Daniel Jones. And I tend to agree, given the state of New York’s current roster that has essentially monopolized slot WR3s. That includes Parris Campbell, Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard and Jamison Crowder.

Campbell has been a standout during OTAs coming off a fully healthy pseudo-breakout year despite a dumpster-fire Colts offense. He set career-high counting stats in catches, yards and targets, albeit accompanied by horrible efficiency numbers. His yards per route run ranked second worst among all WRs with at least 65 targets (1.03). But the fact that he stayed healthy for an entire season was enough to entice a WR-needy team like the Giants, who desperately need speed at the position. He will turn 26 in July and still possesses 4.3-speed that the Giants can utilize. Per NFL next gen stats, Campbell’s max speed of 22.11 MPH in Week 18 was the fastest recorded time in 2022.

He will compete for playing time with Shepard and Robinson, who are both returning from season-ending injuries. Shepard looks spry so far in his injury return and was mega-productive in 2022 prior to his injury with a 27% target share. But he’s played just ten games over the past two seasons. Robinson was great as a rookie — 24% target rate per route run when healthy with an 81% slot rate – but he doesn’t appear likely to be ready for the start of the season coming off a late November ACL tear. As for the outside and bigger WRs, the list includes veterans Isaiah Hodgins/Darius Slayton, with third-rounder Jalin Hyatt (who can also be used inside). Slayton is the highest-paid WR on the Giants and the safest bet to maintain a full-time role in the offense. From Weeks 5-17, Slayton was the WR31 in total points (WR39 points per game), averaging 8.8 fantasy points, 59 receiving yards and nearly six targets per game (20% target share). Hodgins stepped up big last year when every other Giants WR was unavailable. Once fully entrenched in the offense from Week 12 onward, Hodgins has zero drops on 45 targets and averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game. However, his low financial commitment makes him easier for the team to move on in favor of other players. Hyatt was a big-play savant in a gimmicky Tennessee offense, giving him a wide range of outcomes heading into his rookie year. Like Campbell, he offers another speed element that was lacking in the Giants’ offense last season.

Everything considered, Slayton is my favorite Giants WR to draft. He has been with the Giants and Daniel Jones all four years and showed up big-time in 2022 when the team initially looked like they wanted nothing to do with him. Now he’s the highest-paid WR on the team. Campbell looks like he might be a solid slot option to start the year, but his injury history, mixed in with the returns of Shepard/Robinson, brings concerns. Still, I prefer Campbell after he stayed healthy all last season over those other two. When he’s healthy, he will likely command a decent target share after what we saw from Robinson and Richie James Jr. in 2022. Then when it comes to Hodgins/Hyatt, I am leaning on the veteran. He’s already proven himself to the current coaching staff and thrived. Per PlayerProfiler.com he finished 1st in route win rate overall and versus man coverage. He can get open, and that’s good enough for me.
-Andrew Erickson

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New York Jets

What sort of fantasy value will the Jets’ passing game yield with Aaron Rodgers at QB?

The Jets’ QB situation in 2022 was bleak. Zach Wilson made a team-high nine starts at the position and flopped badly. Mike White and Joe Flacco each made four starts. Now, future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers is taking the helm of the Jets’ offense. If Garrett Wilson was able to rack up 83 receptions and 1,104 receiving yards as a rookie while playing with an assortment of mediocre quarterbacks, what might he be able to do when paired with one of the best passers in NFL history?

Wilson is the headliner of the Jets’ pass catchers, but there might be fantasy value to be mined elsewhere on the roster. Ex-Packer Allen Lazard has been a fixture in the Green Bay offense for the last four years, and his familiarity with Rodgers could make him a significant contributor in 2023. Rodgers milked an 11-TD season out of modestly-skilled TE Robert Tonyan in 2020, so Tyler Conklin is an interesting late-round TE option for 2023. It’s possible Rodgers could rekindle the fantasy value of Mecole Hardman, Corey Davis and/or Randall Cobb, all of whom have had the fantasy value of wet wood lately.

But here’s a word of warning about the Jets’ passing game in 2023: The Jets have one of the better defenses in the league, so they probably won’t be involved in a lot of shootouts, and Rodgers might be more of a game manager than a gunslinger. It’s also worth noting that the last time Rodgers was paired with Nathaniel Hackett, who’s now the Jets’ offensive coordinator and was the Packers’ OC from 2019 to 2021, Green Bay had one of the slowest-paced offenses in the leagues. A slow offensive pace means fewer plays and fewer chances to amass fantasy points.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

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Philadelphia Eagles

Can Jalen Hurts improve even further in 2023?

Yes, I know that Jalen Hurts was the QB1 in fantasy points per game last year, so in that sense, no, he can’t improve his standing. That doesn’t mean he can’t post even gaudier numbers this year and repeat as the QB1 in fantasy with even more fantasy points per game. As good as Hurts was, he finished tied for 14th in passing touchdown rate and only tenth in passing yards. With another year in the system, Hurts can improve in both areas. If his rushing production stays consistent and his passing numbers get another bump, he will be the runaway QB1 again in 2023 in an even more dominant fashion.
-Derek Brown

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Will Kenny Pickett make enough progress to elevate the Steelers’ passing game?

Projecting a second-year leap for a quarterback is not hyperbole. Gone are the days of the sophomore slump as we routinely see QBs take a step forward in Year 2. And Kenny Pickett did enough as a rookie for those to be optimistic that he can deliver. From Weeks 12-18, Pickett was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback. He also added 235 rushing yards on the ground, putting him close to that desired 250 rushing yards threshold we should be aiming for our fantasy QBs to hit. Pittsburgh did an excellent job revamping their offensive line this offseason, and the offense is not short on playmakers between Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

The one glaring weakness I see with the Steelers comes down to offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Since he took over as the OC in 2021, Pittsburgh ranks 26th in yards per game and 31st in net yards per attempt. But as alluded to earlier, the offensive improved with Pickett in the second half, going 5th in EPA per dropback, 7th in first downs per game and 12th in red-zone efficiency. Part of the boost in passing efficiency came in the form of a complimentary stable run game. No team rushed the ball more than the Steelers over this stretch. They ran the ball on 1st down at a 62% clip (5th). Their overall pass-to-run percentage was 51% run, and 49% pass. Considering this was the most success Canada had as the Steelers OC, I doubt he goes too far away from the ground attack in 2023. That doesn’t mean Pickett is a bad fantasy option – efficient QB play matters – but don’t expect this team to be near the top of the league in total passing yards, attempts, etc. But like other low-volume efficient passing offenses (49ers are the first to come to mind), oftentimes supporting 3-plus pass-catchers doesn’t work. One of Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth or George Pickens likely won’t provide consistent fantasy production in a run-heavy offense.
-Andrew Erickson/Joe Pisapia

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San Francisco 49ers

Who will be the primary QB this year, and does it even matter?

“Avengers…assemble.” This is what 49ers GM John Lynch is saying about San Francisco’s unbelievable group of skill position players, with mad scientist Kyle Shanahan designing the offense and calling plays. But who will the quarterback be? Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy, who shocked the league last year but has a limited ceiling and is coming off an injury? Trey Lance, coming off an even worse injury, but with the pedigree of being the No. 3 overall pick just a couple of years ago? Or maybe it will end up being another former top pick, Sam Darnold, who is now in by far the best offensive setup in his career. Any one of these QBs would likely have success playing in Shanahan’s system surrounded by players like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. But which one will end up making the most starts this year?

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Seattle Seahawks

How should fantasy managers play the Seattle RB situation?

Only Pete Carroll could turn a once super-easy backfield situation to read into a fantasy manager’s worst headache. Kenneth Walker was slated for easy fantasy RB1 status in 2023, just to get the rug pulled out from underneath him after the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round. In addition to drafting Charbonnet, the Seahawks also drafted Kenny McIntosh – another strong pass-catching running back. The market correctly adjusted to Walker based on the addition of Charbonnet, moving his price to the high-end RB2 range.

However, drafting Walker in Round 4 is still a substantial amount of draft capital to pay. As a rookie, he underwhelmed as a receiver and finished second to last in rushing success rate. This raises questions about his efficiency and consistency as a runner. Fantasy managers rely on reliability and productivity from their running backs, and Walker’s struggles in this area are a cause for concern. Per FantasyPros boom-or-bust report, Walker had the second-highest bust rate (29%) among RBs inside the top 20 last season. And to make matters worse for Walker, Charbonnet fills in all the holes in Walker’s game. From a real-life perspective, it makes sense why Seattle drafted Charbonnet. The former UCLA running back boasts an impressive skill set, excelling as a receiver and displaying high efficiency as a rusher. He posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. He also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs.

With Charbonnet likely to earn playing time and potentially cut into Walker’s touches – potentially of the high-value variety – I just can’t justify Walker as the Seattle RB to draft. Even with his explosiveness, his inconsistencies don’t bode well for him to see the massive workload from 2022. Charbonnet comes with an RB3/RB4 price tag, which I’d much rather buy. His 3-down skill set and strong draft capital (same as Walker’s) suggest that he will be heavily involved in the Seahawks’ offense as a rookie. Keep in mind that Carroll is never afraid to shake things up when it comes to his backfield. The team drafted Rashaad Penny in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. But former 7th-round draft pick Chris Carson was the team’s leading rusher in 2018, 2019 and 2020. One of Charbonnet’s closest comparisons, per Mockdraftable.com, is Carson.
-Andrew Erickson

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Can WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin maintain their fantasy value with Tom Brady gone?

In Tom Brady’s three seasons as the Buccaneers starting quarterback, Chris Godwin averaged 16.8 PPR fantasy points per game, and Mike Evans averaged 15.7. It’s fair to wonder whether Evans and Godwin will be able to maintain the same sort of fantasy value with Baker Mayfield or perhaps Kyle Trask manning the QB position for the Bucs in 2023. From 2019 through 2021, D.J. Moore averaged 14.5 PPR fantasy points per game. In Mayfield’s six starts for Carolina last season, Moore averaged 8.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Trask hasn’t started an NFL game and has played 10 snaps in two seasons. Evans turns 30 in August. Last year, he endured an 11-game touchdown drought. It’s too early to say Evans carries age-related risk, but perhaps his superpowers aren’t quite what they were a few years ago, and a drop-off in QB play could exacerbate any minor age-related slippage. Godwin, whose average depth of target last year was just 5.7 yards, might have less fragile fantasy value than Evans since Godwin targets generally require less from a quarterback than Evans targets. Still, it seems unlikely Godwin’s fantasy value will escape a QB downgrade completely unscathed.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

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Tennessee Titans

Which of the Titans’ pass catchers are worth rostering?

Like moths to a flame, fantasy football managers are often attracted to teams with ambiguity at the pass-catching positions, thinking the wide receivers and/or tight ends at the top of those depth charts are destined to provide fantasy value because they have a clear path to significant targets. That can be a fatal attraction, however, particularly with unproven players in weak passing attacks.

Titans WR Treylon Burks and TE Chig Okonkwo are trendy fantasy options for 2023 because Tennessee has few other credible pass catchers on the roster. But Burks and Okonkwo are second-year players who are largely unproven themselves. Burks’ first-round draft capital and 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame gives him some appeal, but he had 33-444-1 in 11 games and dealt with injuries and conditioning issues as a rookie. Okonkwo had 32-450-3 as a rookie, but he was a fourth-round draft pick who didn’t exactly put up eye-popping college numbers at Maryland. Burks and Okonkwo are certainly intriguing, but it’s risky to count on them for high-level production in what figures to be a run-heavy and below-average offense.

And what if either Burks or Okonkwo were to miss games? Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips and Chris Moore are behind Burks on the WR depth chart and could conceivably be fantasy-viable if forced into significant roles. Kevin Rader and rookie Josh Whyle are behind Okonkwo at TE, and it’s hard to imagine either becoming a coveted fantasy commodity under any circumstances. Caution is warranted when approaching Titans pass catchers.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

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Washington Commanders

Is there a Washington RB worth targeting in fantasy drafts?

The Washington backfield is one of the hardest for fantasy managers to parse. Third-round rookie Brian Robinson led the Commanders with 205 carries and 797 rushing yards in 12 games last season, but he scored only three touchdowns, averaged 3.9 yards per carry, and was a nonfactor as a pass catcher. Antonio Gibson had double-digit touchdowns in each of his first two seasons with the Commanders but seemed to fall out of favor last year after having fumbling issues in 2021. Gibson had only 149-546-3 rushing in 15 games last season, although he did have a career-high 46 catches.

It’s hard to discern how the Commanders will split snaps and touches at the RB position, particularly with the arrival of a new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, who comes over from the Chiefs. Robinson didn’t look very explosive last year, but he also came back surprisingly early from a pair of gunshot wounds after he was the victim of a robbery attempt on Aug. 28, and it’s possible he was never at 100%. Ron Rivera, the Commanders’ head coach, has talked about wanting to get Gibson more touches this year, but it’s hard to tell whether that’s just idle chatter. And there are other RBs who could potentially become factors — rookie Chris Rodriguez and/or veterans Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams. Training camp and the preseason could yield interesting clues about which Washington RB, if any, is worth an investment in 2023.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

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