We have a brand new season of fantasy football peeking over the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled, and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy. The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts. These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Regardless of whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the first four rounds that can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
Derek Brown’s Early-Round Draft Strategy & Top Targets
Here is my approach and players to target for each of the early rounds.
Round 2
Early-Round Players to Targets
- A.J. Brown: The 2022 season was liberating for A.J. Brown stans like myself. Brown was freed from the run-first chains of the Tennessee offensive structure and allowed to spread his wings with the Eagles. Brown was the WR8 in fantasy as he set career marks in nearly every category. Brown ranked third in yards per route run and top 15 in route win rate. Brown remains an upper-echelon wide receiver tied to one of the league’s best young passers. He’s a WR1 that should come close to replicating last year’s fantastic stat line.
Mid-Round Players to Targets
- Garrett Wilson: After enduring putrid replacement-level quarterback play for most of his rookie season, Garrett Wilson should be on cloud nine with Aaron Rodgers chucking passes his way weekly now. Last season in Weeks 8-18, Wilson had a 26.9% target share, a 37% air yard share and 2.08 yards per route run. Combining these metrics and the quarterback upgrade should put Wilson on the fast track to WR1 production if everything hits. The cold water that could cap his target volume and fantasy ceiling is the snail’s pace that Nathaniel Hackett and Rodgers have run at when teamed up. Wilson’s median outcome is as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
Late-Round Players to Targets
- Rhamondre Stevenson: “Dread it, run from it…destiny arrives all the same. And now it’s here.” Mondre season is upon us. The team has already scrapped the supposed threat to his early down work in James Robinson. Ty Montgomery remains, but you can miss me with any banter of him significantly eating into Stevenson’s work in the passing game. In reality, Stevenson is one of the best backs in the NFL, and he will be the engine of the Patriots’ offense this year. Last year he was first in yards after contact per attempt, eighth in breakaway run rate, 18th in yards per route run and 10th in target per route run rate (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets per PFF). Last year the Patriots leaned on Stevenson as he recorded 12 games with at least 60% of the snaps played, averaging 18.7 touches and 122.8 total yards over that timeframe. In those games, Stevenson had an outstanding 18.8% target share and a 60.1% route run rate. Bill O’Brien tends to lean on one back, and that will be Mondre. During O’Brien’s last five years of leading an NFL offense, his starting running back saw at least a 58.7% opportunity share, with some backs earning up to 73.9% (ninth-best in 2016) of the backfield touches. Mondre is a league winner.
Rhamondre Stevenson > CMC in 2023.
Yeah. I said it. MONDRE SZN is HERE❗️ pic.twitter.com/KVA6kg9pW7
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 23, 2023
Round 3
Early-Round Players to Targets
- DeVonta Smith: The Slim Reaper put all the BMI truthers and doubters in a body bag in 2022, finishing as the WR14 in fantasy points per game. After operating as the team’s field stretcher in his rookie season, DeVonta Smith became the high-volume intermediate target hog I hoped for. Smith saw 42.2% of his targets last year within nine yards of the line of scrimmage and thrived. He was 19th in target per route run rate and seventh in YAC. He finished 14th in target share, ninth in receptions and eighth in receiving yards. In Weeks 11-17, he led the team with a 30.5% target share and a 37.3% air yard share as A.J. Brown took a slight backseat (28.2% target share, 36.2% air yard share). Smith should be considered a rock-solid WR2 with WR1 upside this season.
Mid-Round Players to Targets
- Mark Andrews: Andrews has not finished lower than TE5 in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons. Despite Lamar Jackson struggling and Tyler Huntley being unable to deliver an accurate pass in 2022, Andrews was still the TE3 in fantasy. He commanded a 29.0% target share (first) and was fourth in red zone targets. Andrews was also sixth in receiving grade and third in yards per route run (per PFF). While his target share could dip with more receiving talent on the depth chart this year, the passing volume will rise to compensate. Andrews is one of the few tight ends that can give Kelce a run for his money for TE1 in 2023.
Late-Round Players to Targets
- Calvin Ridley: My body is ready for Calvin Ridley to return to the NFL and set the stat sheets on fire. Trevor Lawrence tickled our spider senses last year by flashing elite upside at the quarterback position. Ridley should have no problem earning the alpha WR1 role in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. The last time we saw Ridley with a set of pads on, he was seventh in target share (27.4%), fourth in air yard share (40.0%) and fifth in route win rate. No, I’m not worried even a little bit about “rust.” I don’t think Ridley forgot how to get open after time away from the game, and you shouldn’t, either. Draft the Jaguars WR1 with confidence.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: This year, the Lions turned in their old sports car for a newer model that still has that new car smell. The new Corvette in the driveway is Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs was a big play waiting to happen at Alabama last year, ranking seventh in breakaway percentage (per PFF). Much like his predecessor D’Andre Swift, Gibbs is a pass-game weapon that ranked ninth and second in yards per route run over his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). David Montgomery will be a thorn in Gibbs’ side, especially in the red zone, but he doesn’t have Gibbs’ upside for big plays and a heavy pass game role. Detroit ranked 13th in target share and 11th in raw target volume last season to the running back position. Expect those numbers to rise in 2023. I have concerns about his overall volume and touchdown equity, but Gibbs has RB1 upside with an RB2 price tag.
Round 4
- Lamar Jackson: The Baltimore Ravens love fest continues. This is an offense that I will be heavily invested in for 2023. With that being the case, If I miss out on Jalen Hurts or Justin Fields in drafts, then I’ll easily and aggressively pivot to Lamar Jackson. Break out the streamers and party hats because Jackson has been liberated. In steps Todd Monken who is riding in on his valiant play volume steed. Monken will inject new life into the pace of this offense as he’s ranked inside the top 12 in neutral script pace in three of his last four seasons as an offensive coordinator. With Monken and an army of new skill player additions, Jackson can revisit the torrid pace he started with last year before the receiving depth chart fell apart. In Weeks 1-3 with Rashod Bateman on the field, Jackson was the QB1 in fantasy points per game, averaging a whopping 34.8 points. He was also on his way to a beautiful passing season ranking third in passing grade, first in big-time throw rate and third in yards per attempt (minimum 80 dropbacks per PFF). Jackson could break fantasy football this year.
The Lamar Jackson haters don't want you to know
With Rashod Bateman in Weeks 1-3 playing at least 60% of the snaps…
L Jax among 30 QBs with at least 80 Dropbacks
– PFF passing grade – 3rd
– Big Time throw rate – 1st
– Yards per attempt – 3rdLamar with a STOCKED depth chart… pic.twitter.com/pu00mvj824
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 8, 2023
- Drake London: If we’ve learned anything over the last few years as fantasy managers, second and third-year wide receivers that have already flashed massive upside are strong bets to make in fantasy. While London didn’t live up to lofty predictions (WR43) as a rookie, everything screams that he is an insanely talented player to double down on in 2023. London posted alpha-level usage metrics ranking fifth in target share (29.4%) and second in target per route run rate (32.4%) among wide receivers. He was also 11th in yards per route run and 16th in open score (per ESPN analytics). London already gave us a peek at his WR2 floor for 2023 during last year’s stretch run. In Weeks 13-18, he was the WR20 in fantasy, even though he failed to score a touchdown in this span. I’ll continue betting on London’s beautiful talent profile.
Drake London doing Drake London thingspic.twitter.com/8vf6Hf4L3q
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 8, 2023
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
