We had some big-name players in our first overvalued piece a month back, and we will keep them coming! People think that the players you draft are the most important when it comes to fantasy football, but what you avoid is equally as valuable. You usually can’t win your league through the draft, but you can certainly lose it if you reach for some of these overvalued players. With that in mind, let’s start with many people’s favorite quarterback to break out this season.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Overvalued Players to Avoid on Yahoo! Leagues
Here are players at each position that are currently being overvalued on Yahoo! Leagues.
Overvalued Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX): ADP 59, ECR 54
We’re just as excited as anyone to see the jumps that Lawrence has made, but he’s never proven to be this valuable. The former top pick is the QB7 right now, ahead of guys like Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott. The Herbert omission is what drives me crazy because Lawrence would give anything to duplicate what Herbert has done over recent years. Despite improving last year, Lawrence finished 14th in fantasy points per game. That was a considerable jump since he was the QB22 in his rookie season. It would be hard to see him jumping all the way to QB7 this year, especially since he averaged just 20 fantasy points per game before Week 10 last year. While we expect Lawrence to take another step, there’s no chance we’d take him ahead of studs like Dak and Herbert.
Overvalued Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV): ADP 14, ECR 19
This saddens me because Jacobs was spread across my fantasy teams last season. The fantasy football community loves to overreact though, and it’s funny he went from one side of the spectrum to the other in a two-year span. We were taking JJ in the sixth round last year, but you’re paying a second-round price tag this year! He earned it with his league-leading rushing total, but there’s no chance he will do that again. The 340 carries were a career-high by nearly 70 totes, and he also had more receptions than he did in the two previous years combined. We don’t expect the usage to remain the same though; Jacobs averaged 244 carries for 1,029 yards through his first three years. He also averaged just 36 catches for 251 receiving yards in those three years, and we anticipate him creeping closer to that this season. What’s wild is that Derrick Henry and Jacobs are expected to go around the same spot in drafts, but Henry has been the much better option since these two were drafted. In fact, Henry is averaging 320 more rushing yards and four more touchdowns in those four years, despite having similar workloads in the passing game.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT): ADP 27, ECR 26
Harris is expected to be the bellcow in Pittsburgh, but it feels like people forget just how bad he was last year. Najee never scored more than 25 fantasy points in any game, and he scored 15 or fewer fantasy points in 15 of 17 games. That’s a nightmarish floor from such a high draft pick, and it looks even more terrifying since he’s never cracked more than 3.9 yards per carry since being drafted. We have to wonder if this guy is even a good runner out of the backfield, which becomes more problematic since we saw his targets drop from 94 in his rookie season to 53 last year. The nail in the coffin is the fact that he plays in the AFC North, which is one of the best defensive divisions in the NFL.
AJ Dillon (RB – GB): ADP 96, ECR 84
Why do we do this with Dillon every year? We all know this guy is a talented runner, but he’s stuck behind Aaron Jones in this Green Bay offense. The last two years have been eerily similar, with Dillon recording 803 rushing yards on 187 carries in 2021 and 770 rushing yards on 186 carries in 2022. We usually draft backup running backs because they’re the focal point in the passing game, but that happens to be Jones’ role too! Dillon is averaging just 259 receiving yards on 31 catches in those two years. All of these statistics make Dillon a risky pick, but his floor makes him even riskier. AJ scored 7.2 or fewer fantasy points in 10 of 17 games last year and never scored more than 20 fantasy points. Use this mid-round pick to draft a high-upside receiver like Michael Pittman, Diontae Johnson, or Marquise Brown.
Overvalued Wide Receivers
Chris Olave (WR – NO): ADP 33, ECR 31
I was shocked to see this ADP. Olave is undoubtedly one of the top picks for a sophomore breakout, but I’m not willing to pay this price tag for it. Some of the guys that Olave is going ahead of include Deebo Samuel, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and DK Metcalf. I would rather have any of those veterans over this unproven youngster, especially since Olave is already dealing with Achilles tendonitis. As someone who has that issue, it seldom goes away! What’s scary is that Olave didn’t do much with a ton of usage last year, ranking 20th in targets per game and 10th in air yards. It’s hard to see him getting much more usage than that, which is alarming since he finished as the WR27 in points per game. There’s a high-risk, high-reward aspect with Olave, but I’d rather use this pick on one of those steady studs mentioned above.
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAX): ADP 54, ECR 51
I’m excited to see what Ridley brings to the table in Jacksonville, but I’m not willing to take him in the fifth or sixth round to find out. This man is entering a crowded offense, with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram all having good seasons last year. That’s a ton of cooks in the kitchen, and it becomes more concerning since Travis Etienne is also looking at a monster workload out of the backfield. Stepping into a new offense takes time to adjust, and we can’t overlook the fact that Ridley has only played five games over the last two seasons. You’re paying a pretty penny for the hopes that Ridley returns to the stud we saw in 2020, and it’s not worth it with so many question marks surrounding this new team dynamic and his return to play. Terry McLaurin and Chris Godwin are going a round later, and both guys look like much safer options.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – FA): ADP 55, ECR 48
Hopkins has been one of the best receivers in the NFL for a decade now, but everyone falls off at some point. It appears that’s starting to happen with D-Hop, who had 106 receptions and 1,289 receiving yards over the last two years combined. He only played 19 games to compile those numbers, but the injury question marks also scare us. The fact that he’s unsigned is also frightening, and it’s becoming evident that these teams don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only teams in consideration are the Patriots and Titans, which makes Hop even less intriguing. Those are two of the worst passing teams in the NFL, ranking 21st and 30th in pass attempts last year.
Overvalued Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI): ADP 56, ECR 68
When it comes to drafting tight ends, I have three strategies. I either take one of the top four guys or wait for Darren Waller. If I can’t do either of those, I’ll punt the position and figure things out from there. That makes Goedert off-limits because he’s currently going as the TE5 in drafts. It feels strange to pay that much for someone like Goedert who has never shown a massive upside at any point in his career. His best year from a usage standpoint was 2019, collecting 58 catches and just five touchdowns. Both of those being career-high totals is somewhat shocking, but it looks like people are encouraged by his 702 receiving yards last year. But a tight end that lacks receptions and touchdowns is a horrendous sign, particularly when he’s the fifth one off the board. Adding D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny to this crowded offense will limit Goedert even more because pass-catching backs like that will steal targets and red zone opportunities.
More Fantasy Football Commissioner Site Guides
- ESPN (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- Sleeper (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- Yahoo (Undervalued)
- FFPC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- RTSports (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- NFFC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- Fantrax (Undervalued | Overvalued)
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