We have a brand new season of fantasy football peeking over the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled, and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy. The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts.
These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB, or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the middle rounds that can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.
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- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
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DBro’s Middle-Round Draft Strategy (2023 Fantasy Football)
*Unless otherwise specified, All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com.*
Derek Brown’s Middle-Round Draft Strategy & Top Targets
- Dameon Pierce: Pierce should be the straw that stirs the drink for Houston in 2022. The coaching room for the Texans is littered with former 49ers staffers, so we shouldn’t be shocked if the team lives and dies by the run game this year as they ease C.J. Stroud in. In his rookie season, Pierce was the RB16 in expected fantasy points per game with 19.8 touches per game in the 12 games he played at least 50% of the snaps. Pierce was also ninth in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in breakaway percentage. Devin Singletary will spell him at times on early downs, but this is Pierce’s backfield. He’s an RB2 with an RB1 upside.
- Diontae Johnson: There’s only one explanation for Diontae Johnson’s 2022 season. After an offseason workout in rainy Pittsburgh, he entered his house with an umbrella still drawn and tripped over his black cat, which sent him hurdling into his full-length entryway mirror, thus shattering it into a million pieces. This unlikely yet possible turn of events is the only possible explanation for his wretchedly unlucky season. Despite ranking 13th in target share, tenth in red zone targets, and the WR20 in expected fantasy points per game, Johnson finished the season with zero touchdowns as the WR39 in fantasy points per game. Kenny Pickett‘s play was a factor, but Johnson simply had a terrible run-out. Regression is coming for Johnson and this offense. Johnson still ranked 11th in total route wins, so no skill dropoff is involved here. It’s just a case of legendarily bad luck. Johnson is a WR3 with top-15 upside.
- James Cook: James Cook was explosive with the ball in his hands last season. He has the talent to take over the backfield of one of the best offenses in the NFL this year. That is a player worth betting on, especially at his modest ADP. Last season he ranked 28th in yards after contact per attempt, first in breakaway percentage, and 19th in elusive rating (per PFF). Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are looming goal-line sloths, but Cook has the talent to own the passing downs and eat into the early downs.
Cook ranked ninth in yards per route run and sixth in targets per route run last season (minimum 30 targets). Devin Singletary produced RB30 and RB24 fantasy points per game finishes over the last two years with 58-59% opportunity shares. Cook could produce similar (if not better) results on less volume. Cook has RB2 upside at an RB3 price tag. - Treylon Burks:Treylon Burks is staring down a sophomore season with tons of opportunities to put his disappointing rookie season in the past. Burks saw a 17.6% target share last season while ranking 35th in air-yard share and 32nd in yards per route run. While none of these numbers will inspire confidence in Burks entering year two, his 17th-ranked route win rate and 24th-ranked open rate (tied with Marquise Brown, per ESPN analytics) should. While DeAndre Hopkins landing in Tennessee likely crushes any aspirations of the highest ranges of Burks’ 2023 outcomes, that doesn’t mean he can’t still produce a solid sophomore campaign. Burks falls in the WR3/4 bucket, but he could crush that expectation.
- Daniel Jones: Last year Jones was the QB10 in fantasy points per game with a pathetic group of receiving talent around him. This offseason, the front office continued to add talent to this roster. Is the Giants’ receiver room one of the best in the league? No, but the front office has taken a Kansas City Chiefs-like approach to building out their passing game. Darren Waller will operate as the clear number one option for Jones, with the rest of the group fitting in as role players. Brian Daboll can mix and match wide receiver talents again this year with a deeper and more diverse group to choose from. Jones’ top-five finishes last year in red zone carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns are all replicable in 2023. The big area where Jones can continue to show growth is in the passing department. With more competent weapons in-house from the start of the season, we should see this offense tilt to more passing. After Week 10 last season, the team was tenth in neutral pace, 14th in neutral passing rate, and 11th in play success rate. Jones is a QB1 with a top-five upside if his passing numbers creep up this year.
- Kadarius Toney: Kadarius Toney could be an elite fantasy option if he can ever secure a full-time role and stay injury free. Toney was an efficiency darling in his rookie season, ranking seventh in target per route run rate and 17th in yards per route run. Those beautiful metrics carried over into 2022, with Toney garnering a 28.6% target per route run rate and 2.44 yards per route run. Toney only eclipsed 40% of the snaps once last year with the Chiefs. He then got dinged up and returned to 30-32% snap shares in Weeks 16-18. Even in the playoffs, he couldn’t surpass 29% of the team’s snaps in any game. If his stars align, Toney is a WR4 that could evolve into a weekly WR2.
- Jordan Addison: Adam Thielen earned a 17.0% target share and 107 targets last year. He did this while ranking outside the top 55 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). Why can’t a talented first-round wide receiver match (or easily exceed) these volume numbers in his first season? Addison can. He absolutely can. Addison has ranked 22nd or higher in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade in each of his last two collegiate seasons (minimum 50 targets per PFF). The Vikings were third in neutral passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season. I don’t see them dropping outside the top 5-10 teams this season in either category. Addison could be a WR2 in fantasy if he can pass T.J. Hockenson in the target pecking order.
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