We have a brand new season of fantasy football peeking over the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled, and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy. The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts. These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Regardless of whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the first four rounds that can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Derek Brown’s Early-Round Draft Strategy & Top Targets

Here is my approach and players to target for each of the early rounds.

Approach to Round 1

Early-Round Players to Target

• Justin Jefferson: What is there to say about Jefferson? He’s at the top of nearly every receiving production and volume metric you can find, and he’s primed to run it back in 2023 with a similar stat line. Last year Jefferson was the WR2 in fantasy points per game, leading the NFL in targets (184), red zone targets, receptions, receiving yards and YAC. With Dalvin Cook off the roster, expect Minnesota to lean even more into their passing game after ranking third in neutral script passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season. You’ll need the 1.01 in nearly every league to secure his services in fantasy football for 2023. If he falls to 1.02 in any league, I will break my phone by pressing the draft button so swiftly.

The 2023 Crop of possible WR1 OVERALL candidates:

Favorite: Justin Jefferson
1B Favorite: Ja'Marr Chase
Would it shock me…No: Cooper Kupp
Bills Mafia perennial pick: Stefon Diggs
WR available outside the top 3 picks: Tyreek Hill

Dark horse Candidates:

Amon-Ra St. Brown…

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 8, 2023

• Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is one of the few wide receivers that can possibly compete with Jefferson for the top spot among wide receivers. Chase could take his game to another level in 2023 after what we saw down the stretch to close out last season. Over his final five games of the season, he led all wide receivers with 11.8 targets per game, ranked fourth in target share (30.9%) and was the WR3 in fantasy points per game. Over that same span, he also led all wideouts with 1.2 end-zone targets per game. If Chase had kept up that type of blistering pace for 17 games, he would have walked away with 204 targets, 136 receptions, 1,499 receiving yards and 10 receiving scores. Chase competing for the crown of the best wide receiver in the NFL in his third season is easily in the range of possibilities for 2023.

We still haven't seen the best from Ja'Marr Chase

After his return in Week 13 he went on a ridiculous tear

That 5 game sample extrapolated to 17 games:

204 targets
136 receptions
1,499 receiving yards
10 tds

Chase could unlock another level in 2023.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 11, 2023

• Travis Kelce: Kelce is a difference-maker and worth a top-five selection in any draft. Last year Kelce showed no fall-off in production, ranking first in receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points per game at the tight end position. His skills remain razor sharp as he was also second in yards per route run and fourth in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). Even comparing his fantasy production to other positions, Kelce deserves high praise. He would have been the RB5 and WR6 in fantasy points per game last year. Kelce is set for another stellar season if he can continue holding Father Time off.

Mid-Round Players to Target

• Tyreek Hill: If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, Tyreek Hill could break records this season. Last year in the games in which Tagovailoa was active, Hill averaged 108.3 receiving yards to put him on an insane 17-game pace of 1,841 receiving yards. Megatron still holds the single-season receiving yardage crown with 1,964 in 2012. I don’t doubt that Hill can make a run at this lofty total entering his second season in this offensive system. Hill can still cook corners with the best in the league. Last year he ranked first in receiving grade and yards per route run (per PFF). He was also fourth in open score (per ESPN analytics). Hill will remain the tip of the spear for an offense that will remain pass-happy in 2023.

If we get a full szn of Tua Tagovailoa…

Tyreek Hill is going for 1800-1900 yds

In games Tua played:

Hill avg 108.3 receiving yards per game

Over a full szn: 1,841 rec yds

Hill is an easy top 5 pick this year

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 7, 2023

• Cooper Kupp: After pushing their chips to the middle for years, the Rams’ house of cards finally came tumbling down last year. Injuries decimated the team, but that didn’t slow down Cooper Kupp when he was on the field. Kupp ranked third in target share, 12th in air-yard share and was the WR1 overall in fantasy points per game. He was also seventh in receiving grade and yards per route run (per PFF). With Matthew Stafford back in the huddle and the team likely to field a bottom-five defensive unit, there should be plenty of passing volume to fuel Kupp to another top-five fantasy wideout season.

• Austin Ekeler: Last year Ekeler built upon his fantasy legend status as the RB1 in fantasy points per game. This is after he was the RB2 in the previous season. After contract worries early in the offseason, Ekeler is back in the fold and fully invested in crushing it again in 2023. Ekeler still has plenty left in the tank after ranking seventh in yards per route run and evaded tackles last season. With the team moving toward chucking it deep more this year, Ekeler’s target share (18.9%, second) could dip slightly with Justin Herbert checking it down less, but Ekeler will still be involved heavily. In 2020-2021 under Kellen Moore’s direction, the Cowboys were 13th and 10th in target volume directed to the running back position.

Late-Round Players to Targets

• Bijan Robinson: One of the best running back prospects in recent memory landed on a team that was second in neutral script rushing rate and led the NFL in red zone rushing rate last year. Yeah. Robinson is a player I’ll have heavy exposure to in every format. Robinson should be considered a lock for 300-plus touches. With that type of volume and his talent profile, Robinson has RB1 overall upside this season. Robinson ranked 11th and 18th in yards after contact per attempt and sixth and third in elusive rating (minimum 100 carries per PFF) over the last two years. No one will be muttering Arthur Smith jokes at the end of the season if Robinson carries them to fantasy titles.

Since 2013 Rookie RBs finishing with at least 250 touches:

93.7% have finished as Top 20 RBs (in fppg)

68.7% have finished as an RB1

31.2% have finished as Top 5 RBs

This is a Bijan Robinson Tweet

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 1, 2023

• CeeDee Lamb: Last year in his third NFL season, Lamb finally broke out and entered the WR1 ranks in fantasy (WR7). Lamb should run it back in 2023 with another top-12 season, but the great thing is it’s possible that we still haven’t seen Lamb’s ceiling. Last year he was top six in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns among wide receivers. Lamb is an elite target earner, ranking ninth in target share (28.7%) and seventh in target per route run rate (30.1%). He was top seven in route win rate and win rate against man coverage. With Michael Gallup hopefully rounding back into form and the addition of Brandin Cooks, opposing defenses won’t be able to key in on Lamb as much in 2023. The needle remains pointed up for Lamb.

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*