We have a brand new season of fantasy football on the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy.
The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts. These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Regardless of whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB, or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the late rounds and they can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.
We have a brand new season of fantasy football on the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy.
The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts. These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Regardless of whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB, or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the late rounds and they can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.
DBro’s Final Round Draft Picks
*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
- DeWayne McBride: With Dalvin Cook out of Minnesota, don’t rule out McBride stealing the early down role away from Alexander Mattison by the end of the season. Mattison is the biggest hurdle McBride has to jump to grab the role, but Mattison isn’t insurmountable. His per-carry efficiency has been dropping since he hit the league. His yards after contact per attempt and breakaway percentage have dropped in each of his four seasons in the NFL. In 2022, Mattison ranked 41st in yards after contact per attempt and 60th in breakaway percentage among 61 rushers with at least 70 rushing attempts (per PFF). On paper, McBride is one of the best tackle-breaking backs from this draft class. Over the last two years in college, McBride has ranked top-12 in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway rate, and PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). Mattison feels like a classic dead zone back that I’m ok with heavily fading this year, especially with McBride as a late-round option.
- Pierre Strong: I’ve loved Strong since I looked at him as a prospect. If anything happens to Rhamondre Stevenson, Strong is the backup to garner. He is one of those savvy last-round picks you make instead of drafting a kicker or defense. Let camp play out and if no injuries strike, then you cut him to waivers before Week 1. In his four seasons at North Dakota State, he ranked top-ten in yards after contact per attempt and breakaway percentage twice among all FBS or FCS running backs with at least 100 carries (per PFF). Strong is an easy bench stash in all formats.
- Rashid Shaheed: Rashid Shaheed quietly had one of the most impressive rookie seasons of 2023. While his 488 receiving yards and two scores won’t perk up many eyebrows, I love Shaheed in 2023 in all formats. After earning at least a 60% route per dropback rate last year, Shaheed was an impact player with three top-36 wide receiver weeks over his final seven games. In 2022, Shaheed ranked fourth in yards per route run and 22nd in PFF receiving grade (minimum 30 targets, per PFF). Those numbers jump off the page. If Michael Thomas can’t make it back on the field at this point in his career, Shaheed could finish second in targets on the Saints in 2023.
- Chase Claypool: While consensus is ready to throw in the towel on Chase Claypool, I’m not. Everyone forgets so quickly that Claypool is an uber-athlete. His 90th percentile or higher speed and burst scores can create big plays at the drop of a hat. His rookie season marks of a 25.2% target per route run rate (15th-best) and 0.5 fantasy points per route run (14th-best) were the early signs of big-time talent. Has his value dropped after a down season in 2022? Yep. That’s exactly why his ADP has dipped to its current basement location. Claypool showed promise of living up to his rookie season flashes in three games with the Bears, in which he played at least 63% of the snaps. In that small three-game sample, he saw a 22.1% target share, a 50% end zone target share, 1.77 yards per route run, and a 28% target per route run rate. Claypool is one of the best WR5 upside darts to toss this year.
- Puka Nacua: I don’t normally have a heavy infatuation with a wide receiver taken in the fifth round of the NFL Draft, but I do for Puka Nacua. I won’t apologize for falling head over heels for a wide receiver that you can easily draft with your final pick in best ball and redraft that ranked second and sixth in yards per route run over the last two years (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Nacua has highlight-reel body control and strong mitts. Last year, he ranked 17th in contested catch rate (minimum ten contested targets, per PFF). Nacua has a fairly easy path to playing time this season, with only Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell ahead of him to start camp. He could get some Robert Woods-esque handoffs this year after amassing 357 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns at BYU. Nacua is a smash pick.
- Marvin Mims: Sean Payton traded up in the second round of the NFL Draft to take the talented rookie from Oklahoma. Mims closes his collegiate career with a 94th percentile yards per reception and 96th percentile breakout age. He can work underneath and take the top off defenses with his 4.38 speed. He can also play above the rim with exceptional leaping ability and body control. Mims could be fighting for playing time with Tim Patrick from the outset, but it’s possible he leaps him on the depth chart and becomes a full-time starter immediately with a strong camp and preseason. Mims is a fantastic WR5 draft pick to stash on your bench. He could be a stretch-run hero and difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs if this offense bounces back from last year’s pitiful showing.
- Isaiah Hodgins: Isaiah Hodgins is a priority pick in the later rounds of drafts. Once New York made him a full-time player, he crushed it. In Weeks 13-17, he logged four top-24 wide receiver outings in five games. Yes, he also got lucky with touchdowns as he scored in each of those four games, but those were a result of Daniel Jones‘ trust in Hodgins in the red zone, garnering five red zone targets in those four games. When looking at his deeper metrics, his production was also related to his underrated talent. Hodgins ranked first last year in route win rate and win rate against man coverage. If Hodgins can pick up where he left off last year, he’ll be a screaming value in 2023.
- Gerald Everett: Like Smith Jr., I expect Everett’s offensive environment to be a point-scoring paradise this season. Kellen Moore’s system propped up a lesser talent in Dalton Schultz to fantasy success in previous seasons, so why not a more talented player in Everett this year? Last year, Everett ranked 15th in receiving grade, 21st in yards per route run, and 12th in YAC per reception (per PFF). Another under-the-radar metric synonymous with the top tight ends in fantasy each year is their performance in yards per route run against man coverage. Last year, Everett ranked third in yards per route run against man coverage behind only Darren Waller and Mark Andrews (minimum ten man coverage targets, per PFF). Everett’s numbers scream that he could be a diamond in the rough.
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