The NFL season is fast approaching, and every year one of the most exciting parts of fantasy football is taking stands on players with shaky job security. These players tend to be available cheaper than they have been in previous years, or the shakiness is baked into the cost of acquiring them in 2023.
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Starters with Shaky Job Security
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)
It might seem strange to think of Russell Wilson as someone with shaky job security not even a year after he signed a five-year $245m contract extension with the Broncos, but make no mistake; the heat has been turned up on Wilson with the arrival of Sean Payton.
Most reports have suggested that the Broncos ownership has given Payton carte blanche to do as he sees fit with the team, and if that means they have to eat tens of millions in dead-cap next year, so be it. Wilson can be traded next summer for as little as $18m in dead cap while saving the team $17m, which isn’t terrible if they feel like they have to move on.
Payton prioritized signing former Raiders backup Jarrett Stidham in free agency, giving him a two-year $10m deal and talking him up as a potential starter in the league. Wilson needs to get out to a hot start to quiet any whispers about Stidham taking his job.
Mac Jones (QB – NE)
Much of last year’s issues can be put down to the co-offensive coordinators that Bill Belichick chose to put in charge of the offense, and despite Belichick having a lot of credit in the bank, that decision looks disastrous in hindsight. The Patriots dropped from a top-five offense in weighted DVOA in 2021 to 27th in 2022, along with ranking bottom five in total first downs. Simply put, you can’t score points or win games if you can’t stay on the field. That’s not to excuse Mac Jones, who regressed from his impressive rookie season, seeing his time to throw grow from 2.59 seconds to 2.69, and his completions over expected per game dropped from 2.6 in 2021 to -0.6.
Bailey Zappe seemed to have earned the trust and faith of his coaches in a way the fiery Jones has yet to do, and if Jones doesn’t have a solid training camp, the rumor mill might start churning.
Need 2021 Mac Jones Back More Than I Need Air pic.twitter.com/AzVmOjH0VP
— ????? (@patswrId) July 18, 2023
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
On paper, the Vikings seem to have plenty of faith in Alexander Mattison, turning the running back duties over to him after re-signing him in free agency and then releasing Dalvin Cook. However, Mattison’s contract isn’t particularly spectacular, with him earning only $7m over the next two years, and rumors are doing the rounds that the Vikings have already offered Dalvin Cook a contract if he’d like to return to Minnesota.
Mattison has had to bide his time behind Cook throughout his career, but in the six games he’s had over 50% of the snaps in the last three years, he’s averaged 22.15 PPR points per game. The problem for Mattison is that he’s only had six games in the last three years where he’s had 50% of the snaps. That’s a tiny amount for a player now expected to become a workhorse, and the Vikings have a cluster of running backs behind Mattison who could eat into the workload if he fails to impress.
Just because Mike Zimmer loved Alexander Mattison in one-week increments a few years ago doesn't mean Kevin O'Connell will love him over the course of a full season.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 17, 2023
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
With Samaje Perine moving on from the Bengals in free agency, it felt like there was a chance Mixon could revert to complete workhorse duties without so much of a doubt. Still, the Bengals seemingly weren’t happy that they were paying Mixon substantially more than Perine last year, and often it was Perine who looked like the better running back.
Mixon agreed to a hefty pay cut to stay with the team, seeing his base salary drop by almost $7m for this year and while it could be spun that Mixon staying with the team is positive, the other side of that coin is that the Bengals are now far less invested in Mixon than they were previously and could easily decide to give him fewer touches if he fails to impress this year.
Najee Harris
Jaylen Warren has made it very hard to envision Najee Harris returning to the workhorse days he had under Ben Roethlisberger when he played 85% of snaps, significantly higher than 2022’s 66%. Warren outproduced Harris in Yards Per Carry (4.8 vs 3.8) and Yards Per Reception (8.3 vs 5.5).
Harris blamed his lack of explosiveness on the injury, but it might just simply be truer that Warren is a more explosive player. Harris has the more extensive investment in himself from the team, costing a first-round pick in 2021. Warren is an undrafted free agent, but we’re approaching year three of Harris’s career, and that investment is mattering less and less as his career goes on.
Najee Harris is fantasy football’s Taylor Swift.
Consistent, high-volume performer, & you pretty much know what you’re getting.
But massively overpriced & not a special talent relative to their peers.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) July 10, 2023
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
The Broncos seem to have shopped around all of their healthy wide receivers this offseason, with Baltimore reporters suggesting before the Ravens signed Odell Beckham that they were close to a deal for Courtland Sutton at one point. Now, Sutton finds himself ready to go into training camp with a new head coach for the second time in two years, and it feels possible that Sutton has a huge range of outcomes for this season. It is reflected in his ADP, which has dropped by over 60 spots from last year’s third-round cost.
Sutton has been quoted as saying he will be the Michael Thomas in this Sean Payton offense, but if Marvin Mims flashes in camp and Tim Patrick recovers well from his ACL injury, are we that sure Sutton will be on the team in November?
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
There hasn’t been a single positive sign from the Saints this year that they believe in Alvin Kamara. During free agency, they sought out a goal-line specialist and between-the-tackles runner in Jamaal Williams, and then during the draft, added Kendre Miller, who is fresh off 1400 yards and 17 touchdowns for TCU.
Kamara has scored only six rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons, with only two in 2022. Now that the team has more options, it’s entirely possible he returns from an inevitable suspension to find his workload much lighter than in previous years.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
The Rams haven’t made many additions on offense this offseason, with Zach Evans the only running back of note to be added during the draft, and so far, no free agents have been signed to a team that seems to be embracing a soft-rebuild in 2023. Cam Akers could have a massive amount of touches this year, and with him another year removed from his Achilles tear, it’s possible he looks more like the promising rookie we once saw.
Of course, it’s also possible that the Rams don’t particularly have any faith in Akers after trying to give Kyren Williams more work last year and telling Akers he was welcome to seek a trade before last year’s deadline. Right now, it seems like the two parties are aware they need each other, but if the Rams don’t want Akers around long-term and he doesn’t flash, will we see more Kyren Williams and Zach Evans? It certainly feels possible.
After a couple of years of drafting the likes of Trey Lance and D’Andre Swift this year I’m focusing my efforts on drafting players who are actually liked by their coaching staff.
Yes, this is a Cam Akers tweet.
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 23, 2023
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