We’re still a way away from the season starting, but Fantasy Football is year-round and early drafters can take advantage of values at this stage of the offseason. They also need to be aware of some overpriced players. Sleeper is now one of the most popular Fantasy Football platforms available, but some players still look overpriced despite their ADP updating regularly.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Players to Avoid Drafting (Fantasy Football)
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) ADP – 11.2
In best ball drafts, it’s not uncommon to see Jonathan Taylor available in the mid-to-late parts of the second round. On Sleeper, he’s being pushed up into the first round fresh off the back of an incredibly disappointing season in 2022.
Taylor regressed from being the RB2 in points per game the previous season down to RB19 in 2022 and didn’t look anywhere close to how he did during his breakout year. With Matt Ryan and other bad quarterbacks under center, Taylor found it particularly hard to find the high-value touches he needed, with 76 scoreless attempts between weeks 3-8 in a particularly barren run, where he averaged only 13 receiving yards per game.
Now Taylor finds himself playing with a dual-threat quarterback. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see his efficiency improve, but it might come at the cost of work in the receiving game, and for a round-one player, that’s not something we want to hear. If you can get Taylor in the middle-to-backend of the second, that’s a much more appetizing pick.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT) ADP – 30.4
Another player going much lower in best ball drafts is Najee Harris, who can slide into the fifth round at times, yet on Sleeper, drafters appear to have more confidence in the third-year back who struggled with injuries in 2022. Jaylen Warren seized that opportunity to take a bigger part of this backfield than many would have expected from an undrafted free agent. Warren made the most of it, outproducing Harris in Yards Per Carry (4.8 vs. 3.8) and Yards Per Reception (8.3 vs. 5.5). Harris blamed his lack of explosiveness on the injury. Still, it might simply be truer that Warren is more explosive.
Najee Harris is fantasy football’s Taylor Swift.
Consistent, high-volume performer, & you pretty much know what you’re getting.
But massively overpriced & not a special talent relative to their peers.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) July 10, 2023
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) ADP – 75.5
In the last month, Javonte Williams’s ADP has fallen by almost two rounds, which makes it slightly more palatable, but still, it’s worth reiterating the case against. There has been some cause for optimism around Williams with a few positive reports about his health, but it’s also hard to ignore that the Broncos saw recruiting Samaje Perine as a priority. Denver has reportedly been very interested in Dalvin Cook who is now a free agent.
Williams tore his ACL and LCL in October and anyone who drafted JK Dobbins last year will remember how bumpy returns can be from serious knee injuries, even if Williams’s is a less severe injury. This is all to say before we consider that Sean Payton has consistently talked about wanting to utilize a two-back approach in his offenses.
George Kittle (TE – SF) ADP – 47.5
It seems impossible to ignore the fact that George Kittle’s 2022 touchdown total of 11 is by far an outlier when you look at his career. He had never managed more than six before last year. Perhaps it’s possible that Brock Purdy utilizes Kittle in a way that Jimmy Garoppolo never did. However, it’s also worth noting that Kittle had the second-highest touchdown rate of any tight end who saw over 50 targets. In the eight games with no touchdowns, he averaged a woefully disappointing 4.9 Half PPR points, which is not helping anyone who has paid a fourth-round pick.
Kittle dominated against opponents who struggled to defend against tight ends, dominating the Seahawks and Cardinals in particular, with six touchdowns against them across three games. Kittle also experienced massive differences in his returns when Deebo Samuel was missing time, seeing his Half PPR Points Per Game jump from 9.14 with Samuel playing, all the way up to 18.0 in games Samuel missed. It’s unlikely Kittle’s ADP drops without an injury, and at this price, he’s overvalued by at least a couple of rounds and an easy avoid.
George Kittle is a YAC monster. But his 11 TDs were a ton for a player with just 16 red zone targets, fewer than half of Travis Kelce's 33 to lead the position. Kittle had never scored more than 6 TDs in his first 5 NFL seasons, and so I would fade him in 2023 fantasy drafts. pic.twitter.com/8Y7HJ27PUO
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) January 24, 2023
James Cook (RB – BUF) ADP – 81.3
The Buffalo Bills moved on from Devin Singletary this offseason, but nothing they’ve done has suggested they’re putting all their eggs in a James Cook-shaped basket. Damien Harris was added to the roster, and he profiles far more like the type of back that the Bills could use in short-yardage situations and around the goal line.
Cook is an explosive player who will offer aspects Harris can’t, but he’s by no means an every-down back, seeing only 28.8% of the Buffalo running back touches in 2022, and at this price, we’d need a significant jump from that. Of the running backs being drafted ahead of Cook, only Alexander Mattison saw a smaller workload in 2022. Volume is king for running backs, and it’s entirely possible we’re projecting too much for a player we’ve never seen have it.
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) ADP – 107.4
When the Bears allowed David Montgomery to move on this offseason, it seemed that the Khalil Herbert truthers were primed to see if he could deliver for them as a clear RB1. Fast forward a few months, and Herbert seems to be entrenched in a three-way running back committee with Roschon Johnson and D’Onta Foreman, who both bring elements that Herbert might not. Johnson, in particular, shines in pass protection, and Foreman has shown an ability to create big plays.
The Bears have talked about being willing to give one player a larger share of the workload if they can show they deserve it, but using Herbert in a league where you have to set a lineup will require a leap of faith to start the season. Herbert will always be in danger of Justin Fields stealing the goal-line work.
The Bears wouldn’t have signed D’Onta Foreman and drafted Roschon Johnson if they thought Khalil Herbert was the man
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) July 9, 2023
Jamaal Williams (RB – NO) ADP – 101.9
Another running back who finds himself in a murky situation is Jamaal Williams. It wasn’t long ago that Williams was the 1A in Detroit, rushing for over 1000 yards and scoring a whopping 17 touchdowns as the coaching staff was vindicated for their faith in Williams over Swift. A few months later, Williams found his way to New Orleans, where he could be a part of a three-way committee with Alvin Kamara and rookie Kendre Miller.
It seems inevitable that an Alvin Kamara suspension will be handed out between now and early August, which would give Williams a chance to stake a reasonable workload in this Saints offense. Still, we need Williams to score plenty of touchdowns in order to be fantasy viable. While Williams put on a show around the goal line in Detroit last year, Taysom Hill was the Saints’ preferred option inside the 10-yard line leading the team with 11 carries to Kamara’s eight and scoring five touchdowns in that area compared to Kamara’s two. Williams will have a role in this offense, but will it be worth close to a top-100 pick? That’s very much open for debate.
More Fantasy Football Commissioner Site Guides
- Sleeper (Undervalued)
- ESPN (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- Yahoo (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- FFPC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- RTSports (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- NFFC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- Fantrax (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- MFL (Undervalued | Overvalued)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
