The 2023 regular season is still a few months away. However, some fantasy football leagues will have their draft starting in the next few weeks. Some fantasy players like to draft early, while others prefer to draft last minute. Early drafters like taking advantage of the values in the ADP. Meanwhile, last-minute drafters like avoiding preseason injuries and training camp battles.
Fantrax isn’t the most popular fantasy football platform. However, they have some significant values in their ADP that fantasy players should take advantage of. Meanwhile, some players are overvalued at their current ADP.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Overpriced Players to Avoid on Fantrax
Here are seven players I am avoiding in Fantrax drafts.
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL): ADP 37.42 | QB5
Some fantasy players don’t want to hear it, but Jackson comes with too much risk to get drafted as a top-five quarterback. He hasn’t been the same fantasy superstar since his 2019 MVP year. Jackson’s average fantasy points per game has dropped in three consecutive seasons. Furthermore, the former Louisville star has totaled only five rushing touchdowns over the past two years after having at least five in every previous season of his career. More importantly, Jackson has struggled to stay healthy, missing five games each of the past two years. While the team improved his receiving core this offseason, I’m not taking the Baltimore star ahead of Justin Fields or Justin Herbert.
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU): ADP 58.31 | RB20
Despite being a fourth-round rookie, I was a massive fan of Pierce last year. He was an underrated draft prospect and had an easy pathway to a featured workload in Houston. The former Gator was a top-15 running back, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 14. Unfortunately for Pierce’s workload, the Texans severely upgraded their offense this offseason. They improved the passing game by drafting C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell. More importantly, Houston signed Devin Singletary in free agency, giving the second-year running back legit competition for touches in the backfield. While I would draft Pierce over Singletary, he shouldn’t get drafted as a top-20 running back.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): ADP 77.59 | RB27
Everyone knows the veteran running back is facing a lengthy suspension. However, that’s not the only reason I won’t draft Kamara this year. The former Tennessee star averaged 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and had only two rushing touchdowns last season, both career lows. Kamara was a touchdown machine before that, scoring 13 or more in three of his first four years in the NFL. Unfortunately, he now has 13 total touchdowns over the past two years. Meanwhile, the Saints added Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller this offseason. While Kamara was once a fantasy superstar, he is now part of a crowded backfield with a suspension hanging over his head.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): ADP 35.91 | WR16
I’ve never been a fan of the San Francisco receiver. Samuel had a career year in 2021, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he has struggled outside of that year and he’s missed nearly a quarter of the games in his career because of injury. More importantly, the veteran’s fantasy production plummeted after the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey. Before the superstar running back’s arrival, Samuel was the WR10, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game. By comparison, he was the WR59 after, averaging only nine fantasy points per game. There is no reason why Samuel should get drafted with a top 60 pick, let alone the top 36.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA): ADP 79.98 | WR35
While Smith-Njigba should be the first wide receiver selected in dynasty rookie drafts, the former Ohio State star shouldn’t be the first rookie in redraft leagues and he shouldn’t be a top-36 wide receiver. Smith-Njigba will be a star one day, but his fantasy value as a rookie will be limited. Since the Seahawks drafted DK Metcalf in 2019, no one other than Tyler Lockett earned more than 63 targets in any season. The veteran duo were also both top 18 wide receivers last season, finishing top 20 in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in 2022. Unless Metcalf or Lockett misses significant time, Smith-Njigba will struggle to have consistent fantasy production.
Michael Thomas (WR – NO): ADP 105.47 | WR44
Last year, Thomas was the WR9 on a points-per-game basis. He averaged 14.4 fantasy points per contest, which was only 0.2 points fewer than A.J. Brown. However, Brown ended the year as the WR5, while Thomas was the WR114 after playing only three games. The veteran has missed 80% of the contests over the past three years because of injuries. Meanwhile, Chris Olave has taken over as the No. 1 wide receiver in New Orleans, which will limit Thomas’ target share when he is on the field. While Thomas is currently going as the 44th wide receiver off the board, fantasy players shouldn’t draft him over Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman. Thomas has too much injury history to be worth a ninth-round selection.
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): ADP 89.75 | TE8
Engram was a popular sleeper tight end last season, ending the year as the TE6 and averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game. However, the former first-round pick scored half his fantasy points last year over a four-week window. In the other 13 games of the year, Engram averaged only 4.5 targets and 5.4 fantasy points per game. On a 17-game pace, he would have ended the year as the TE20 with that fantasy points per game average. Calvin Ridley and Brenton Strange will also join the team in 2023. They will cut into Engram’s 22.6% target share from last season and crush his fantasy value.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
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