We have a brand new season of fantasy football peeking over the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled, and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy. The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts.

These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB, or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the middle rounds that can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.

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DBro’s Middle-Round Draft Strategy (2023 Fantasy Football)

*Unless otherwise specified, All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com.*

Derek Brown’s Middle-Round Draft Strategy & Top Targets

• Justin Herbert: Herbert is in a fantastic spot to reclaim his top-five fantasy quarterback status this year. Herbert suffered in 2022, watching his passing touchdowns, rushing yards, and yards per attempt all drop off the map. Kellen Moore can help all of those areas rebound this year. Under Moore, expect the Chargers to push the pace and throw downfield, which Joe Lombardi was allergic to. Moore has never directed an offense that ranked outside the top two in neutral script pace. Dak Prescott has ranked inside the top-13 quarterbacks in the NFL in air yards per attempt in three of his last four seasons. If Keenan Allen and Mike Williams stay reasonably healthy, Herbert could post career-best numbers this season.
• Trevor Lawrence: After a lost rookie season under the buffoonery of Urban Meyer, Trevor Lawrence entered 2022 as a giant question mark. Would he ever fulfill the lofty expectations placed upon him? Would Doug Pederson be the coach to unlock his potential? After Week 8 last year, the light finally came on for Lawrence, and he put all those worries to bed. In Weeks 9-18, Lawrence was second in passing grade, second in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in yards per attempt as the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Once Lawrence flipped the switch, Pederson leaned on his young franchise quarterback, bumping up their neutral passing rate to tenth and throwing in the red zone at the 11th-highest clip in the NFL. With an already talented supporting cast surrounding Lawrence and Calvin Ridley added to the mix, Lawrence has an intriguing top-five upside this year.
• Cam Akers: If Akers continues steamrolling opponents in 2023 in a similar fashion to the final few games of last year, he’ll earn himself a nice payday after the season. I love targeting contract-year running backs. When motivation and talent align, it’s a beautiful thing. If you question whether Akers is fully back from the Achilles tear, you must be blinded by take lock. In Weeks 10-18 last season, he was 21st in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in PFF elusive rating (per PFF). In Weeks 13-18, Akers averaged 19.1 touches, 101.8 total yards and was the RB6 in fantasy points per game. He handled 100% of the team’s carries inside the ten-yard line during that time frame. Akers should be the Rams’ workhorse.
• Tyler Lockett: Tyler Lockett kept trucking along in his age-30 season last year, finishing with another stellar stat line. He was the WR16 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.8% target share (26th) and 30.5% air yard share (24th). Lockett showed little signs of slowing down, ranking 25th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). He was also second in open rate behind only Diontae Johnson (per ESPN analytics). Lockett should have at least one more WR2 season left in the tank, but adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba could hurt his raw target volume. Lockett is a borderline WR2/3.
• David Montgomery: David Montgomery might not be the sexiest name to click during a draft, but he’s set up nicely. I love Jamaal Williams‘ swag just as much as the next person, but we need to accept that he’s a replacement-level running back. Montgomery is easily the more talented back and, hands down, the better receiver. Last year Montgomery was 26th in yards after contact, 12th in elusive rating, and 22nd in yards per route run (per PFF). Jahmyr Gibbs is an incredible talent, but his size doesn’t make him the favorite for goal-line duties. That role probably goes to Montgomery. Williams led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, and while that number could regress this year, this offense should still offer Montgomery plenty of goal-line plunges. Detroit was second in red zone scoring attempts per game last season, behind only Kansas City. Montgomery could post an RB2 season in 2023.
• Brandin Cooks: Last year, Cooks saw his fantasy value crater as Pep Hamilton tried to pigeonhole him into a low aDOT role early on, which crushed his productivity. After Week 8, Hamilton returned to his senses and transitioned Cooks to his field-stretching role. Once the switch was made, his yards per route run jumped from 1.39 to 1.86. His aDOT climbed from 8.6 to 15.3 during this time. Cooks might not be a young pup anymore, but his top-25 rankings in route win rate and win rate against man coverage last year dispel any notion that he’s turned to dust. With Dalton Schultz gone and Michael Gallup being JAG, Cooks should return WR3/4 value with room for more if he gels quickly with Dak Prescott. Another 1,000-yard season with a new team is possible for Cooks in 2023.
• Anthony Richardson: Rushing. Rushing. Rushing. We all know the ceiling and floor-raising ability this skill can have for fantasy quarterbacks. This leads me to kneel at the altar of Anthony Richardson later in fantasy drafts. Expect Shane Steichen to utilize his legs a ton in the design of the Colts’ offense. Last year Jalen Hurts led all quarterbacks in rushing attempts and red zone rushing attempts per game. Richardson could come close to matching that in his rookie season. Richardson is regarded as a raw passer, but Steichen’s system should highlight the best parts of his aerial game while covering up some flaws. Steichen will feature play-action and deep shots in this passing attack, making Richardson’s transition to the NFL easier and offering explosive upside on the field. Last year Jalen Hurts was seventh in deep passing attempts and fourth in play-action passing attempts (per PFF). Richardson is a hand and glove fit with both of these wrinkles. In his final season at Florida, he was fifth in play-action passing grade, 19th in play-action yards per attempt, and 20th in PFF’s deep passing grade (minimum 150 dropbacks or 20 deep pass attempts per PFF). Rushing quarterbacks with cannon arms are my ultimate weak spot.

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