There are times and places in life when it makes sense to be conservative, but fantasy football doesn’t make the list. As legendary racecar driver Ricky Bobby would say, “If you’re not first, you’re last.” When it comes to fantasy football draft strategy, it often pays to be aggressive. That can mean a number of things, but it primarily means finding upside in players compared to where they’re being drafted. If you hit on enough high-upside players, you’ll find yourself in the fantasy playoffs with a shot at a coveted championship.
We asked our featured experts for their running backs, wide receivers and tight ends with the most upside at their current ADP along with players they’re passing on in that same range.
- AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
High-Upside Players for Fantasy Football Drafts
Which RB comes with the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP and which player(s) would you pass on with a higher ADP at his position?
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
“The guy was a touch monster down the stretch last year (21 per game over last 4 games), and it’s like all anyone can think about is his Achilles. Seemingly healthy with the backfield to himself, he is a screaming value. I’ll gladly snag him ahead of Dalvin Cook (no team) and Dameon Pierce in drafts.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“Jahmyr Gibbs has the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP. While many will draft him far behind fellow rookie Bijan Robinson, Gibbs’ upside is astronomical-especially in the receiving game. Gibbs has a shot to be a 100-target player in this Lions offense and could be a 250-touch player overall. His receiving workload could be similar to that of Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler this season. Players I’d pass on for Gibbs: Breece Hall, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne.”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)
“The uncertainty of rookie running backs tends to push down their ADP. We’ve heard enough tales about Bijan Robinson to get him into the first round of fantasy drafts, but Jahmyr Gibbs’s fourth-round ADP can be a steal if it holds. Detroit selected Gibbs just four picks after Robinson in April’s NFL Draft, and they have an ascending offense with one of the best offensive lines in the league. His pass-catching and explosiveness boost his ceiling in that offense. I would pass on Kenneth Walker, an unproven pass-catcher with a new rookie teammate to compete with, and take Gibbs a few picks later.”
– Aaron Larson (FantasyPros)
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
“Antonio Gibson can easily smash his ADP at RB34. Yes, Brian Robinson is still there to take carries, but with Jd Mckissic gone, Gibson has a clear path to the Jerick McKinnon role in new Washington OC Eric Bieniemy’s offense. Gibson was the half-PPR RB10 and RB12 in 2021 and 2020, respectively, and he could make a run at those numbers again in 2023 on passing volume alone. I don’t want any part of Breece Hall at his current ADP. Despite reports that Hall is running at 23 MPH as he returns from a torn ACL suffered in October, straight-line speed is quite different than rushing that ball in an NFL game. There is too much of a track record for running backs needing well over a year to return to form for me even think about Hall as an early-round pick.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
“This is a real head-scratcher for me. Yes, Alexander Mattison hasn’t done it before as the #1 guy, I get it, but we have seen Mattison be really good in the past filling in for Dalvin Cook when he has been hurt. Looking at the conditions for Mattison in 2023, they could not be any better. He has no competition behind him, he will be on the field a ton, he will get plenty of goal-to-go carries for the Vikings, and the Vikings’ offense will put up a lot of points. Getting this guy in round 5 of your drafts should be considered theft, plain and simple. I will happily take Mattison over the likes of Cam Akers, Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders, and Aaron Jones. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)
“Miles Sanders’ is not usually associated with the word “upside,” which makes sense at his current ADP of RB20. Even with a rookie under center, the Panthers project to be a run-heavy team in a division where the Saints and Falcons allowed the 8th and 9th most rushing yards per game, respectively. Over the last three years, there has only been one back to have 250+ carries (14.7 per game) and finish outside of the top 12. I think he has a better chance of finishing in the top 12 than Travis Etienne (ADP RB13), who lacks passing volume and shares work with Tank Bigsby.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
“Isiah Pacheco (current ADP RB 26 Ringo’s Rank RB 7) Isiah Pacheco plays for arguably the most explosive offense in the league. He also played most of last season with a torn labrum and still played great. In 2023, he’ll be the starter and knows the playbook inside and out. And if he siphons off even a little of Jericho McKinnon’s workload (which I expect him to do), he’ll be a top-ten RB imo. I’m passing on: Jonathan Taylor (current ADP RB 5), Josh Jacobs (current ADP RB 9), Rhamondre Stevenson (current ADP RB 10), Breece Hall (current ADP RB 11).”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC)
“Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs – Only three running backs had multiple RB1 overall weeks last Fantasy season: Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler and Jerick McKinnon. Yet, there are currently forty-three backs being drafted ahead of McKinnon. He is the epitome of a high-upside play, as shown by the ceiling he showed at the end of the season last year. McKinnon scored nine touchdowns over the final six games, including eight receiving scores showing that he is arguably Patrick Mahomes‘ favorite Red Zone option. I would take him ahead of Tyler Allgeier, Damien Harris, and even his teammate Isiah Pacheco.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
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