The regression articles can always be tricky, but many people don’t realize that regression goes both ways. The word itself has a negative connotation, but it just means we’ll creep back closer to the mean. That’s how life works because everything creeps back to the mean in one facet or another. That’s what’s beautiful about sports because we have all of these variables, but things always tend to inch closer to what we see on the back of the baseball card.
We’re talking about football here, though, and you better believe those numbers on the back of the football card also look the same year by year.
The regression articles can always be tricky, but many people don’t realize that regression goes both ways. The word itself has a negative connotation, but it just means we’ll creep back closer to the mean. That’s how life works because everything creeps back to the mean in one facet or another. That’s what’s beautiful about sports because we have all of these variables, but things always tend to inch closer to what we see on the back of the baseball card.
We’re talking about football here, though, and you better believe those numbers on the back of the football card also look the same year by year.
Tight End Target Regression Candidates
Positive Regression Candidates
Kittle has been one of the best tight ends throughout his career, but his 11 touchdowns overshadowed what was a disappointing season from a usage perspective. This guy had just 60 catches on 86 targets for 765 receiving yards. In the four years prior, Kittle averaged 73 catches on 100 targets for 994 receiving yards. What makes that even more remarkable is that he played just eight games in 2020, which means he’s averaging about 80-85 catches and 100-120 targets in a full season in that span.
Those numbers dwarf the usage we saw last season, and we have to assume he’ll creep closer back to the usage hound we saw in the past.
Waller is my go-to tight end in drafts this season because I genuinely believe he will finish second at the position in targets and receptions. Travis Kelce is the only guy who I believe will get more usage because Waller is the only genuine threat in this offense. The receiving corp has Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Parris Campbell as the top options, and there’s no chance any of those guys get more opportunities than Waller.
An injury-riddled 2022 campaign is making fantasy managers blind to the fact that Waller has been a top-tier tight end throughout most of his career. His workload made him so effective; he ranked second in targets per game in 2020 and 2021. He was also third in total targets in 2019, and this is the worst pass-catching group he’s had to battle for touches. The 28 catches for 388 yards last year have fantasy managers running for the hills, but we’ll lean on the 84 receptions for 1,002 receiving yard averages in the three years prior.
Somebody needs to step into the Waller role in Vegas. It looks like Hooper will be that guy, and he’s essentially free in drafts right now. This guy has an ADP of 281 and an ECR of 299, going undrafted in most leagues. We’re not even saying you need to draft him but don’t be surprised to see him streamed as a BYE week guy later in the season. We say that because Hoop is averaging 54.2 receptions on 75.2 targets over the last five years.
The last two years have been disappointing, but to put that in perspective, Dallas Goedert had 55 catches on 69 targets last year. Being lost in the Cleveland and Tennessee offenses hurt Hooper’s fantasy value, but he doesn’t have to battle David Njoku or Chigoziem Okonkwo for tight end touches. This team also needs him to fill the Waller role, which is fantastic since this team is known for feeding their tight ends. Who was Jimmy G’s top target in San Fran? Yes, Kittle is right!
Negative Regression Candidates
Kmet looked like a potential breakout after his sophomore season, but things are trending in the wrong direction. This young tight end had 60 catches on 93 targets in 2021 but backed it with 50 catches on 69 targets last season. The decrease is slightly concerning, but other things are more horrifying.
The fact that he caught 72 percent of his targets is a sign that he’s due for some negative regression because Justin Fields isn’t exactly known for his passing. This youngster also ranked fifth among tight ends with a 19 percent team target share, which isn’t sustainable either.
This team is expected to throw less than almost any team in the NFL, and the newly-acquired DJ Moore will surely be the focal point in the passing game. Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are also expected to take a jump in this offense, which is scary since the efficiency is expected to fall off for Kmet.
The Jaguars have developed one of the best passing games in the NFL, but there’s no chance Engram has the same role we saw last season.
This guy set career-highs with 73 catches for 766 receiving yards. He hadn’t cracked 46 receptions in three of the previous four years, despite averaging nearly 80 targets per year. Those rates don’t match up because Engram had 73 catches on 98 targets last season. That efficiency should fall off for EE, but the usage will also drop with Calvin Ridley joining the team. That’s 75 receptions and 100 targets that need to be accounted for, and most of that will come across the field and in the slot. That’s usually where Engram thrives, but look for him to take a step back with so many variables against him.
Higbee was Top 5 in receptions and targets among tight ends last year, but there’s no chance he can sustain that. The primary reason for the bump was the injury to Cooper Kupp. The top receiver in fantasy regularly received double-digit catches and 15 targets a game before getting injured, but Higbee was the guy when he was out.
Higbee’s 108 targets last year was a career-high by a mile, averaging just 57 targets through the first six seasons of his career. We don’t expect it to be that low, but regressing toward 60-80 seems in play when evaluating his career averages and assuming Kupp returns to full health.
Knox has been an excellent red zone target for the Bills since he was drafted, but there’s one glaring issue in his fantasy value. This team went out and took Dalton Kincaid with their first-round pick, and it looks like Knox’s time in Buffalo could be coming to an end after his contract expires. A first-round rookie will surely limit Knox’s usage in the future, which is scary since he’s never had more than 50 catches in any year.
He also saw his targets go from 71 in 2021 to 65 last year, and that trend should continue downward, with Kincaid being a significant part of this passing game. Many people assume Knox had a solid year last year, but if he didn’t finish the season with a touchdown in each of his final four games, he would’ve been one of the biggest busts at the position.
Knox averaged just 5.6 fantasy points per game through the opening 13 weeks, and that’s what we expect to see with Kincaid in the picture.
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