Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. Let’s take a look at breakout candidates to target in fantasy football drafts.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Fantasy Football Breakout Picks to Target
Here are 2023 fantasy football outlooks for potential breakout players.
Coming back from major knee surgery, J.K. Dobbins‘ 2022 season debut was delayed until Week 3. And he posted middling results, failing to surpass 50 rushing yards or 13 carries in any game with little receiving usage to speak of (6 targets). It was revealed that Dobbins needed another knee surgery after Week 6 and he was placed on IR until Week 14. It wasn’t until Dobbins came back later in the year that fantasy managers got a glimpse of what the talented RB displayed as a rookie. The Ravens RB1 played in five games (including playoffs) averaging 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards, and 14 carries per game. Although he still split time with Gus Edwards – nearly identical carry totals in the Wild Card Round loss to the Bengals – and Dobbins’ receiving usage remained obsolete with just 7 targets total to close out the year (5 of which came versus Cincinnati).
-Andrew Erickson
Cam Akers was a total zero from the get-go, getting benched in Week 1 and he looked like he was going to be outright cut by the Rams. Eventually, Akers inherited the Rams’ RB1 role and he delivered as the fantasy RB4 during the last six weeks of the season. With LA in a rebuilding year, Akers will again be a truly polarizing player. Did he do enough in the final six weeks as the NFL’s leading rusher averaging 85 rushing yards per game to retain bell-cow-type usage?
The good news is that Sean McVay is remaining in Los Angeles, which bodes well for Akers to remain the go-to guy in the backfield. Recall that Akers played 100% of the snaps in the Rams’ season finale.
And with so many needs on the Rams’ current roster, they did not add any running backs in the draft until the sixth round. That means Akers will be competing for volume with Zach Evans, alongside Day 3 scrubs Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers.
And although it seems impossible considering his career arc, Akers isn’t even 24 years old yet. With free agency on the horizon, the Rams have all the reason in the world to ride Akers into the ground during a contract year.
-Andrew Erickson
Jerry Jeudy weathered the Russell Wilson stink better than Courtland Sutton in 2022. Sutton dealt with a hamstring strain down the stretch and a grossly ineffective Wilson when he decided to chuck it deep. Jeudy parlayed his 20.8% target share (35th) into a WR19 finish and a 16th ranking in yards per route run. Jeudy’s lower aDOT (11.8, 40th) helped shield Jeudy from the atrocious Wilson deep ball. Jeudy was 11th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Jeudy is a talented player who still has untapped potential in the NFL. With Sean Payton in town, we could have been a year early touting this offense as a breakout unit. Jeudy is a borderline WR2/3.
-Derek Brown
Kadarius Toney could be an elite fantasy option if he can ever secure a full-time role and stay injury free. Toney was an efficiency darling in his rookie season, ranking seventh in target per route run rate and 17th in yards per route run. Those beautiful metrics carried over into 2022, with Toney garnering a 28.6% target per route run rate and 2.44 yards per route run. Toney only eclipsed 40% of the snaps once last year with the Chiefs. He then got dinged up and returned to 30-32% snap shares in Weeks 16-18. Even in the playoffs, he couldn’t surpass 29% of the team’s snaps in any game. If his stars align, Toney is a WR4 that could evolve into a weekly WR2.
-Derek Brown
Treylon Burks is staring down a sophomore season with tons of opportunities at his disposal to put his disappointing rookie season in the past. Burks saw a 17.6% target share last season while ranking 35th in air-yard share and 32nd in yards per route run. While none of these numbers will inspire confidence in Burks entering year two, his 17th-ranked route win rate and 24th-ranked open rate (tied with Marquise Brown, per ESPN analytics) should. Burks enters the offseason with only Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, and Chigoziem Okonkwo to compete for targets in 2023. Burks falls in the WR3/4 bucket, but he could easily crush that expectation.
-Derek Brown
A midseason trade to the Vikings invigorated T.J. Hockenson in 2022. In seven games with the Lions, he averaged 6.1 targets and had 26 catches. After the trade, Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets in Minnesota and had 60 catches in 10 games. He also had 10 catches for 129 yards in the Vikings’ playoff loss to the Giants. Entering his age-26 season, Hockenson is in the prime of his career and is an attractive option at the TE position now that he’s with a team eager to leverage his pass-catching talents.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
A fourth-round draft pick from Maryland, Chigoziem “Chig” Okonkwo was a pleasant surprise for the Titans in his rookie season, catching 32 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 14.1 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target, flashing impressive speed and tackle-breaking ability after the catch. Okonkwo is an exciting addition to the TE pool, although the Titans’ grim QB situation might force us to temper our enthusiasm for this up-and-comer.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
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