The Yellowstone Caldera will wipe us off the map one day. Liquid-hot magma bubbles ominously below where the bison roam. Geologists say a cataclysmic eruption is long overdue. In the meantime, we’ll simmer in the broth and build dynasty rosters that will hopefully bring us joy for years on end.

Much like a caldera, there are NFL players who are building up steam to break through the crust this season. While some of them have been good before and are hopeful to return to their previous form, others are a mere twinkle of potential with a newly optimistic outlook heading into the 2023 season. Let’s traverse the dynasty breakout terrain together.

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Dynasty Breakout Candidates

JK Dobbins (RB – BAL)

The former Ohio State standout is now a full year removed from his catastrophic knee injury. Dobbins is only 24 years old and is one of the most efficient ball carriers in the league. He averaged north of 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie in 2020, a staggering figure. In his eight games last season, he averaged a whopping 5.65 YPC and scored three touchdowns. His absence in the receiving game was purely a figment of Greg Roman’s antiquated offense. Dobbins will thrive under Todd Monken, who loves to bend the status quo for the purpose of getting athletes in space in the passing game. The injury history is depressing Dobbins’ dynasty value, which opens an acquisition window that promises a boatload of upside at the position.

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)

Williams and Dobbins are on eerily similar arcs, albeit one year apart. The Denver RB suffered his horrendous knee injury early last season and endured the same cartilage and ancillary ligament damage that prolonged Dobbins’ recovery time. While a return to play is very likely this season, Williams’ managers will need to have some faith and patience for his return to form. Javonte is among the best RBs in the NFL at shedding tackles and breaking off huge chunks of yardage, so buying low on him now figures to pay off by 2024 and onward.

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)

The fantasy community held a funeral for the Rams last season. Some players were buried, others cremated or sent down the river in a canoe set ablaze. Cam Akers was a different story. His wake had already been minted in the photo albums after he ruptured his Achilles in 2021. Although certainly not the picture of efficiency as Dobbins, Akers also has been mucked by poor offensive line play dating back to his days at Florida State. Sean McVay put his trust in Cam to finish last season, as he toted more than 20 touches and surpassed 100 rushing yards in each of the last three games. The Rams are due to lurch awake from their post-championship coma this season, paving the way for Akers to seriously pay off at his current dynasty value.

TJ Hockenson (TE – MIN)

The tight end landscape (err, hellscape) in dynasty is truly nightmarish. Those of us who unfortunately don’t roster Travis Kelce, or even one of Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts, reek of desperation whilst picking through the tumbleweeds. Some have placed their temperate hopes on Hockenson after his nice post-trade stretch with the Vikings last season. He certainly has the talent, but what of the opportunity? His time in Detroit was marred with injuries and long stretches of disappearance. Jordan Addison‘s arrival to the route tree does not instill much confidence that Hockenson can break out and pay off at his current value.

Chig Okonkwo (TE – TEN)

The future of the Titans’ offense sure is bleak. Derrick Henry remains a monolith in the backfield, not quite yet gathering moss on his north end. The receiving corps has one recognizable name, Treylon Burks, with a litany of NPCs without speaking roles behind him. Ryan Tannehill is okay, but his collar is steamy, with a couple of unfinished sculptures behind him on the depth chart. It’s truly difficult to not beam with excitement for Chig Okonkwo. The hyper-athletic former Maryland Terrapin was outstanding on a per-touch and per-route basis as a rookie last season. There’s a distinct feeling in the air that Okonkwo’s value will blast off very early in the 2023 season, so don’t be late to put on your goggles.

Kadarius Toney (WR – KC)

A one-trick pony better have an outstanding gimmick. Kadarius Toney’s is spectacular. He is immeasurably elusive after the catch. That’s about it. Toney was a disastrous first-round selection by David Gettleman in New York. The Giants did not appreciate Toney’s talents enough to see past his myriad soft tissue injuries and off-field peccadilloes. The new regime cut bait and shipped him off to the Chiefs for pennies on the dollar. The Chiefs gave him more than 20 snaps only once last season. More injuries and an immense learning curve to Andy Reid’s offense prevented that. A Toney breakout is possible, albeit implausible considering his sparse track record of production and availability. We would need an entirely unseen version of Kadarius Toney to warrant treating him as anything more than the dart throw he has been since his days in Florida.

Treylon Burks (WR – TEN)

Where I am incredibly bullish on Burks’ teammate Okonkwo, I am tempering my optimism of a breakout for the former Arkansas Razorback. Burks has all the physical tools needed to be a force in the NFL, but his learning curve to fill AJ Brown‘s shoes is staggering. The Titans got thoroughly finessed in that deal. Burks is better suited as a big slot who can impose his will after the catch and get open with the built-in cushion from aligning off the line of scrimmage. Tennessee shoe-horned their unpolished rookie into the X position vacated by Brown, who is multitudes better at running the entire route tree. Burks started to find a groove last season, despite all the QB turmoil. I like him as a prospect and his theoretical target share is impossible to ignore. As a dynasty asset, however, I believe his ceiling for any real breakout is just above his crown already.

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