As we all should know by now: targets are earned, not just vacated. Target distribution will obviously change when a player changes teams, but they aren’t just sitting there for anyone to pick up with another player’s departure. For this article, I will look specifically at players who stayed on their same teams and who I think can see their targets go up, either due to the system changing around them or them becoming more worthy of getting more targets. Let’s dig in!
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6 Wide Receivers Expected to See More Targets
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
When putting together this list, I almost didn’t include Waddle, but the more I think about it, the more I like it. Waddle earned 117 targets in 2022 in 17 games, a 6.9/game average. In Waddle’s rookie season, he earned 141 targets in 16 games. Obviously, this is due to the addition of Tyreek Hill in 2022. Obviously, that kind of player would reduce the number of targets available to Waddle. So why do I think he’s in line for positive regression with Hill still on the team?
Honestly, it’s really just a gut call, but let me elaborate. Hill has come out saying he wants to get 2,000 yards this year. He’s also said he will only play through the 2025 season. Defenses are going to blanket the heck out of Hill this year, as they try to do every year. But as Hill gets older and potentially slower, I think Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense are going to find a way to get Waddle more involved.
I think Waddle’s targets per game could easily get back to that 9-10 target range that he saw in 2021 and that he deserves if Hill is covered and demanding so much coverage. We’ve seen Waddle do it before, and I think he’s going to be the alpha in this offense over Hill, who will be relegated to splash plays and decoy work. Both Hill and Waddle are consensus top 12 WRs, but I think Waddle is the safer bet of the two. This is especially true in dynasty, where his future is much brighter and longer than that of his teammate.
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
Kupp makes my list for a few reasons, but the largest one is the most obvious: they just don’t have that many options to throw to in Los Angeles. Kupp played in nine games last year and saw a whopping 98 targets, almost 11 per game. He finished as WR23 while missing almost half the season. Suppose he plays all 17 games, which is always a big supposition, he could easily see 180 targets in this offense. I want all of the Kupp shares I can get heading into 2023. I think he’s about to go off.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
The Green Bay Packers have officially moved on from veteran QB Aaron Rodgers and are now moving into the Jordan Love era. With Rodgers, rookie phenom Watson saw a meager 66 targets in 14 games, finishing as WR40 overall. His yards per reception were similar to stud WRs like Amari Cooper (WR10 in 2023) and Mike Evans (WR17 in 2023). Now that he’s going to play with Love, I think his yards per target comes down slightly, but his volume goes way up, making him much more appealing in PPR leagues than he might be getting credit for as we head into 2023.
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
Dotson is primed to explode in 2023. As a rookie last season, he saw an impressive 61 targets in 12 games played on a pretty bleak Commanders offense. Dotson was a first-round pick for a reason, and new Offensive Coordinator Eric Bienemy is probably salivating at the thought of how he can deploy a stud like Dotson in 2023. Teammate Terry McLaurin should still get his, but I expect Dotson’s targets per game to go from five to seven or eight this season, and if he plays all 17 games, he could finish as a top 20 WR. This will depend on the quarterback’s play, but in terms of positive target regression alone, Dotson is a no-brainer to me.
Kendrick Bourne (WR – NE)
The New England Patriots are in a weird spot. They added JuJu Smith-Schuster to the offense to give it some life but might be looking at the end of the Bill Belichick era if he can’t turn this team around. Bourne might be the third option now, but his 48 targets in 16 games bring me some hope. In addition to adding Juju, the team signed DeVante Parker to a big contract, meaning Bourne is largely going overlooked, but he’s exactly who I want to add to my bench. He could easily outperform his ADP this year and be a spot flex-worthy candidate on your fantasy team. I’m not saying he’ll dominate your roster, but I think you could do worse in those later rounds of your draft.
Terrace Marshall (WR – CAR)
Finally, my deepest option on the list comes from the new-look Carolina Panthers. Marshall got 47 targets in 14 games last year, an average of 3.4 per game. This is nothing to write home about, but then again, neither were the Panthers as a whole. Now the team looks to have their QB of the future in Bryce Young and has revamped their entire offense through Free Agency. Marshall is still being overlooked in most drafts, but this new chance could impact him more than anyone else on this team. He’s got the potential to see six targets per game which is almost double where he was last year. That kind of increase is something I like to have in case I need it, but can also be prime trade bait if he starts out hot too. He might not be drafted in your league, but keep his name on your radar, just in case.
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his profile and follow him @AndrewHallFF.