The running back position is arguably the hardest to evaluate in fantasy football every year, especially after the first few superstars. Therefore it’s critical to know which running backs to target and which to avoid during your fantasy football drafts.
Here are six running backs that fantasy players should avoid drafting this year, especially at their current average draft position (ADP).
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6 Running Backs to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)
Saquon Barkley (NYG): ADP 10.7 | RB4
Thankfully Barkley stayed healthy last season after dealing with injuries over the past three years. While he finished the year as the RB6, averaging 16 half-point point per reception (PPR) fantasy points per game, Barkley’s production declined over the second half of the season. The veteran was the RB4, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt over the first 10 weeks.
By comparison, he was the RB16, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game and four yards per rushing attempt over the final eight weeks last year. Meanwhile, the superstar has threatened to sit out the 2023 season over his contract. There is too much risk to take Barkley as a top-five running back.
Travis Etienne (JAC): ADP 35.7 | RB13
After Jacksonville traded away James Robinson, Etienne’s fantasy value skyrocketed. From Week 7 through Week 17, the second-year star was the RB12, averaging 13.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he averaged 5.1 yards per rushing attempt last year. More importantly, Etienne finished 13th in the NFL with 220 rushing attempts.
Meanwhile, the former Clemson star had the ninth-most rushing yards (1,125). Unfortunately, the Jaguars want to lighten the running back’s workload this season. The team signed D’Ernest Johnson and spent a Day 2 draft pick on Tank Bigsby. While he will be the lead guy, Etienne no longer has a featured workload and isn’t worthy of his late third-round ADP.
Kenneth Walker (SEA): ADP 40.3 | RB15
It’s been over two months since Pete Carroll gave the fantasy community the double bird and drafted Zach Charbonnet. Do I still want to stick the head coach in a retirement home? Yes! Walker was a fantasy star after Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury. After taking over as the starter in Week 6, the rookie was the RB6 for the rest of the year, averaging 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest.
Unfortunately, the Seahawks crushed Walker and Charbonnet’s fantasy upside by making them split the backfield work in Seattle. While I am still a big fan of the former Michigan State star, fantasy players should draft the wide receivers in this range over Walker.
Dameon Pierce (HOU): ADP 55.7 | RB19
Last year Pierce’s ADP skyrocketed when he took over the featured role in the backfield. The fourth-round pick was excellent as a rookie. The former Gator was the RB15, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before an ankle injury forced him to miss the final four weeks last season. Unfortunately, Houston signed Devin Singletary this offseason.
The former Buffalo Bill has totaled at least 819 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons despite averaging only 11.1 rushing attempts per game during those two years. While he won’t supplant the second-year back as the lead running back, Singletary is a massive upgrade over Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman. Sadly, Pierce isn’t worth his RB19 draft price.
Rachaad White (TB): ADP 67.7 | RB24
The Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette in the offseason after he had 262 touches last year. Instead of adding an established veteran or a high-priced rookie, Tampa Bay only signed Chase Edmonds to replace Fournette. The lack of additions means White will be the featured back this season. Unfortunately, he averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt as a rookie.
More importantly, White lacks explosiveness, as 6.2% of his rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards, and only 3.1% were for 15 or more yards in 2022. I would draft a few running backs with a later ADP, including James Conner (74.7) and David Montgomery (77.3), over the former Arizona State star.
Alvin Kamara (NO): ADP 98.7 | RB32
Kamara’s legal problems got solved last week, but he still faces a suspension from the NFL. Yet, that’s not the only reason I won’t draft the veteran this season. He averaged 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and had only two rushing touchdowns last year, both career lows. Furthermore, the former Tennessee star was a touchdown machine, scoring 13 or more in three of his first four years in the NFL.
Unfortunately, Kamara has 13 total touchdowns over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, New Orleans signed Jamaal Williams and drafted Kendre Miller this offseason. While Kamara once was a fantasy superstar, the veteran is now part of a crowded backfield with a suspension hanging over his head.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
