Targets are earned, not vacated. If a player changes teams, he takes his targets with him, at least in general. We’re not here to talk about vacated targets but rather about what players should see more targets on the season or on a per-game basis. These are running backs that I think could be in line for a positive regression in terms of target share for 2023.

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Positive Target Regression RBs

Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) 

My favorite candidate for positive target regression in the running back group has to be in Philadelphia and Kenneth Gainwell. The team cut Miles Sanders in March and signed Rashaad Penny in free agency. They then traded for D’Andre Swift after the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs. All of this change shows me that the Eagles know that their weakness last year was in running the ball and, more specifically, who was going to run it.

That being said, how does the addition of two running backs, likely ahead of Gainwell on the depth chart, help him in terms of positive target regression? Just look at who they added: two fragile running backs that have a history of not staying healthy. To me, this just means that Gainwell, who is ahead in terms of familiarity with the offense, could be the easy choice for the team to lean on. Gainwell played in all 17 games last year and only earned 29 targets, three more than his now-former teammate Sanders. I think 60+ targets are possible for Gainwell this year, even with the addition of two adequate running backs to the backfield, and that’s a big increase from last season.

Breece Hall (NYJ) 

I know that Hall missed some time last year due to injury, but I still think he’s in line for more targets this year than he got last year. His 31 targets in 7 games (4.42/game) were above average for the league. On a 17-game pace, that would be 75 targets, just three more than Green Bay RB Aaron Jones earned last year with Hall’s new QB. Rodgers clearly loved leaning on RB Aaron Jones in Green Bay, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Hall take on the Jones-style role in New York and flourish in PPR formats as long as he stays healthy.

James Cook (BUF) 

Cook was the backup on the Bills last year. He played in 16 games and got 32 targets behind Devin Singletary on the depth chart. Singletary is now on the Texans, and the Bills added Damien Harris from the Patriots, but all signs point to Cook being the RB1 this year. If that’s the case, I fully expect Cook to get more than two targets per game. As much as QB Josh Allen likes to run, and as much as Harris could play a role, it sure looks like Cook is going to be the guy in Buffalo until he’s not.

Nick Chubb (CLE)

In almost every way, Chubb is a stud. Last season, he got 37 targets in his 16 games, largely due to Kareem Hunt being on the team. Hunt got 44 targets in 17 games. While most people expect Browns RB Jerome Ford to take a step up, I’m expecting a lot of those RB targets to go to stud RB Chubb instead. As of right now, Chubb is the 1A and the 1B on this offense, and those are becoming harder and harder to find for fantasy. Sign me up for Chubb getting over 60 targets easy in 2023.

Jonathan Taylor (IND)

The Colts were a train wreck in 2022, at least in general. Taylor was the lone bright spot on a team that felt like it lacked direction. Well, they drafted their new direction in April with QB Anthony Richardson, who is not only high-powered through the air but can also run the ball himself. This should open up the offense for players like Taylor to step up and become more efficient and productive in general. Taylor’s 40 targets in 11 games was a great pace, and I think he gets even more this year as the offense gets better. As long as he stays healthy, he should see a healthy increase in target volume overall as well.

Samaje Perine (DEN)

Shockingly enough, Perine finished with a whopping 51 targets on the Bengals in 2022. This was the 20th most at the running back position and a solid 3.19 per game. Now he should start the year as the starting running back on the Denver Broncos while RB Javonte Williams continues to heal. The Broncos and QB Russell Wilson now get to work with head coach Sean Peyton calling plays. Peyton loved using RB Alvin Kamara in New Orleans, so I’m fully expecting him to use Perine as much as possible as well. Perine is going under a lot of people’s radar for 2023, but he should definitely be a valuable RB1/2 option most weeks based on his expected target volume alone.

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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his profile and follow him @AndrewHallFF.