We have a brand new season of fantasy football on the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy.
The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts. These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Regardless of whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB, or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the late rounds and they can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
DBro’s Late Round Draft Strategy (2023 Fantasy Football)
*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
Approach to players outside the top 100
- Russell Wilson: Was Russell Wilson’s 2022 season grotesque? Wretched? A Mile High mountain of stink? Yes and no. Overall, Wilson was a major disappointment, but there is hope for a rebound. After Week 10, he started to turn things around in Denver. From that point on, he was eighth in big-time throw rate, seventh in adjusted completion rate, and had the eighth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate per PFF. With a stocked cupboard of skill players and Sean Payton at the helm, Wilson should be able to build upon his late-season bounce-back. If he does, he could be a late-round home run in 2023. Don’t let last year cloud the fact that he was a top-six fantasy quarterback in two of the three years prior. Once I hit the later rounds of drafts, if I’ve decided to wait on a quarterback, it’s time to ride with Wilson for 2023.
- Rashaad Penny: I know this will be seen as hyperbole, but when healthy, Rashaad Penny has arguably been the most efficient running back in the NFL over the last few seasons. Since 2006, Penny has been the only running back to eclipse 4.50 yards after contact per attempt in a single season (the 2021 season, per PFF). Penny has also led the NFL in yards after contact per attempt in each of the last two seasons, with outrageous 4.52 and 4.23 marks. Penny also led the NFL in breakaway run rate in back-to-back seasons. He has a plethora of talent, he just needs his health to comply so he can let it shine for a full NFL season. If he can stay healthy, he should have the opportunity to do just that this year. Last year, the Eagles were tenth in neutral rushing rate and fourth in red zone scoring attempts per game, and their backs operated behind an offensive line that was sixth in adjusted line yards and second in second-level yards (per Football Outsiders). If all the stars align, Penny could be an RB2.
- Jaylen Warren: Warren was a late-round crush of mine last year, so I’m running it back considering what he flashed in his rookie season. Warren was 16th in breakaway run rate, fifth in juke rate, and 18th in fantasy points per opportunity. Warren’s excellence as a receiving threat could also force the Steelers’ hand this upcoming season and make this a full-blown committee backfield. Warren proved to be a better pass catcher than Najee Harris last year, ranking fourth in PFF receiving grade (Harris was 32nd) and 18th in yards per route run (Warren had 1.24, Harris had 0.77). In Weeks 5-18, Warren had six performances as an RB3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring. The path to weekly flex production has already been laid, so he’s not a wasted pick, even as a low-end RB3 or RB4 in drafts. Warren is a priority late-round pick.
- Quentin Johnston: Ok, deep breath. Here’s the list of injuries that Mike Williams has sustained since entering the NFL: herniated disk, knee strain, back spasms, hamstring strain, hip flexor strain, high ankle sprain (twice), and transverse process fracture. I bring this up because Quentin Johnston could be operating as the Chargers’ WR2 sooner rather than later. That type of upside in his rookie season shouldn’t be ignored in an offensive system that could challenge for the league lead in passing attempts and play volume. Even if he doesn’t supplant Williams this season, Johnston offers this offense a different element as a RAC specialist. Last year, he ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Kellen Moore can design looks for Justin Herbert to get Johnston the ball in space and let him do his thing.
- Rondale Moore: Moore’s abbreviated sophomore season was impressive. In his seven full games, he garnered a 22.7% target share producing 1.62 yards per route run. He handled a 22% target per route run rate in that stretch. In his full games played, he averaged 12.6 (PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good for WR32 (PPR) in fantasy scoring over the entire season. The looming domino to fall in the Cardinals’ passing attack is Kyler Murray. Will Murray play more than half this season (if that)? Moore is a WR4/5 that could easily walk into WR3 production.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo: At this point, you’ve probably got Okonkwo overload with how much he’s been mentioned this offseason around the fantasy football industry. There’s a reason for that though. His combination of athleticism and per-route efficiency jumps off the page. It’s a swing for the fences that everyone should be taking. His 92nd percentile speed score helped him rank third in receiving grade and first in yards per route run last year (per PFF). If he hits this year, Okonkwo could be a weekly TE1.
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