Fantasy football seasons are often littered with tales of players bouncing back from a challenging year to surprise us all with an impressive follow-up and continuing biases from one year into the next isn’t helpful in this game.
This article will put together the best contenders for a second-chance season in the form of a starting lineup that could prove to be a bargain at cost if everything comes together.
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Second Chance Team (Fantasy Football 2023)
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)
Russell Wilson needs a second chance as much as any player in the NFL right now, with his departure from Seattle having been the source of great amusement to many across the league as Wilson fell flat on his face with the Broncos. There are reasons for optimism, though, with Sean Payton installed as the new head coach of the Broncos, and he immediately got to work rejuvenating the Broncos’ offensive line, adding several high-profile additions, which should allow Wilson more time to survey the field and make correct choices.
After Nathaniel Hackett was fired, Wilson went on the have two top-five performances across the last three weeks of the fantasy season, and with a better head coach, better offensive line, and healthy receiving options, Wilson could come good on his second chance, particularly if he allows himself to be coached by Payton who had great success with Drew Brees for many years.
If Wilson doesn’t pay attention to Payton, he might find himself unable to get a third chance in the NFL.
In 2022 Russell Wilson led the NFL in deep throw % when leading or tied with a rate of 21.4%.
When trailing that number surprisingly dropped down to 12.4%.
I am really interested to see how things change with Sean Payton in the fold.
Data via @FantasyPtsData Suite.
— Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) July 17, 2023
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
2021 was an incredible year for Jonathan Taylor as he finished as the RB1 in total points and RB2 in points per game, but he was unable to repeat that measure in 2022, crashing back to Earth and finishing as the RB19 in points per game. Taylor struggled to overcome a sluggish Colts offense that regressed under Matt Ryan, with the offensive line also taking a noticeable backward step.
Now with Anthony Richardson set to take over as the Colts starting quarterback Taylor can hope to benefit in the same way many running backs benefit from defenses having to try and account for a dual-threat quarterback as well as the other offensive weapons. Taylor will likely lose some work in the passing game, but if his efficiency can take a step forward, then we know he has the talent to break off game-changing runs at any moment.
JK Dobbins (RB – BAL)
This time last year, fantasy managers were right to be skeptical about JK Dobbins, who was returning from a very serious knee injury that went far beyond the ACL injury that it was usually surmised as. Dobbins needed a second surgery to remove scar tissue which further slowed down his recovery, but by all reports now, he’s moving much better and is keen to make up for lost time.
Under Greg Roman, the Ravens’ running backs were frequently rotated, with Dobbins averaging 11.2 touches per game through his career and often taken out at times when Roman seemed to prefer Gus Edwards for unknown and unobvious reasons. John Harbaugh would often remark in post-game press conferences that he wasn’t sure why Dobbins wasn’t featured more, only for Greg Roman to continue to be the scourge of fantasy managers, but that is no longer the case with Todd Monken in Baltimore.
In 2016 and 2017, when Monken was the OC in Tampa, Doug Martin averaged 17.1 touches per game, and in 2018, Peyton Barber averaged 15.9. When Monken was in Cleveland in 2019, Nick Chubb averaged a whopping 21.3 touches per game. If Dobbins is finally trusted with a large workload, as well as seeing even a slight uptick in the receiving game, with Monken’s love for screen passes well known, then it absolutely could be wheels up for him in 2023.
JK Dobbins career avg touches 11.2
In 2016 and 2017 when Monken was the OC in Tampa, Doug Martin averaged 17.1 touches per game and in 2018 Peyton Barber averaged 15.9. When Monken was in Cleveland in 2019, Nick Chubb averaged a whopping 21.3 touches per game.
It's time…
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) July 17, 2023
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
Deebo Samuel followed up 2021’s WR3 performance with a disappointing WR24 finish in points per game and dropping all the way to WR24 in total point per reception (PPR) points. Samuel struggled through injuries after an offseason where his contract dispute got ugly, not to mention the annual quarterback issues that it seems the Niners must face on a yearly basis. In games with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, Samuel averaged 11.34 half PPR points per game.
Samuel, though, deserves a second chance this year, primarily because Samuel seemed to be Brock Purdy‘s preferred target on many occasions, and Samuel saw barely any drop-off in opportunities after Christian McCaffrey was acquired, putting up eight touches per game before and 7.8 afterward, even while dealing with injuries. We’ve seen Samuel be a league-winner before, and it’s possible he does so again, and this time at a cheaper cost than in 2022.
Deebo Samuel's weekly target shares in four starts with Brock Purdy:
13. 24.3% (team-high)
14. 21.7% (tied for team-high)
18. 15% (first game back)
WC. 30% (team-high)— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) January 15, 2023
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Yes, that’s right, we’re stacking up the Broncos for this second-chance team, and there is no other Broncos pass-catcher you should be more confident in than Jerry Jeudy. Much like most of the offense, there were bad times for Jeudy in 2022, but they were primarily in the first half of the season with Jeudy’s average weekly positional finish WR49 between Weeks 1-10.
After that, over Weeks 11 to 17, Jeudy was the PPR WR11 scoring 17.4 points per game at an average of 2.7 fantasy points per touch, which was equal to Justin Jefferson during that period. The Broncos were struggling to stay on the field, and Jeudy had to be efficient. With upgrades to the coaching staff and offensive line, there is reason to think that the offense should be more competent in 2023, and the Wilson and Jeudy stack has the opportunity to pay off handsomely.
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
It’s possibly unfair to label Kyle Pitts as needing a second chance when he was second in target share among tight ends last year but was 47th in catchable ball rate among tight ends with at least 25 targets, which for the record, was dead last in that category. Instead, it’s perhaps Arthur Smith who needs a second chance to prove he isn’t going to waste Kyle Pitts’s talents any longer.
Out of the top 20 tight ends in 2022 PPR points per game, Kyle Pitts was one of six players to score 2.7 points per touch. Pitts also led the position in air yards per game with 81.6 despite seeing 5.9 targets per game, which ranked eighth.
We never got to see Desmond Ridder and Kyle Pitts take the field together in 2022, but in 2023 we should see it plenty, and if Ridder can make even a semi-competent second-year leap, then it could finally be wheels up for Kyle Pitts.
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