As the dynasty fantasy football landscape continues to evolve, identifying promising rookies who can make an immediate impact is crucial for a successful dynasty draft. However, it’s equally important to recognize that not every highly-touted rookie will live up to the hype and deliver consistent production over the long term. We’ve gathered insights from three esteemed experts—Pat Fitzmaurice, Tom Strachan, and Mike Fanelli—who share their thoughts on six NFL rookies they believe are best to avoid in dynasty drafts.
While it’s important to note that these rookies may still hold potential in redraft or seasonal leagues, our focus here is on dynasty formats, where long-term investment is paramount. These experts have conducted thorough evaluations based on player profiles, landing spots, depth charts, and other critical factors to help dynasty managers make informed decisions when it comes to their draft selections.
Remember, avoiding a potentially overvalued prospect can be just as important as discovering a hidden gem, as it allows you to allocate your resources more efficiently and build a sustainable dynasty roster.
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Rookies the Experts are Fading in Dynasty Leagues
Who is one rookie RB you’re fading in dynasty startup drafts ahead of this season and why?
Kendre Miller (RB – NO)
“Kendre Miller had a productive college career at TCU. However, the rookie doesn’t have a pathway to consistent work this year. He is third on the depth chart behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. While Kamara is facing a suspension, Williams is coming off a career year in 2022. More importantly, both veterans will be with the Saints through the 2024 season. Unfortunately, Miller has an uphill fight at becoming a consistent fantasy player, while his third-round draft capital isn’t enough to keep the Saints from replacing him a year from now.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC)
“Tank Bigsby is a buzzy rookie RB prospect due largely to the fact that he was a Day 2 draft pick. He’s a tough north-south runner, but it’s hard to imagine Bigsby displacing Travis Etienne, who was a much better prospect than Bigsby coming out of college and didn’t disappoint last year in his first NFL season after missing all of 2021 with a foot injury. Bigsby isn’t going to play on passing downs because he doesn’t have a true third-down skill set, and it’s hard to imagine him getting more early-down work than Etienne, who ran for 1,125 yards in 2022 and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. I don’t dislike Bigsby as a prospect; I just think he’ll have an uphill climb to fantasy relevance.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
“De’Von Achane – At less than 190lbs and 5ft8, Achane is far from the size we’d like for a running back in the NFL. Add to this that the Dolphins already have Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert and have offered a contract to Dalvin Cook. Achane has speed to burn and might make some splashy plays, but he doesn’t have the size profile to become a three-down back, and for the cost of a top-90 pick in startups, there are many paths to failure.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
Who is one rookie WR you’re fading in dynasty startup drafts ahead of this season and why?
Jalin Hyatt (WR – NYG)
“I wasn’t interested in Jalin Hyatt before the NFL Draft, and I’m even less of a fan now. The former Volunteer was a third-round pick and the 10th wide receiver off the board. More importantly, he landed with the New York Giants and joined their island of misfit toy wide receivers. Yet, Hyatt hasn’t separated himself from the group this offseason. Furthermore, the few reports about the rookie have been mostly negative, including him working with the third-team unit in minicamp. A year or two from now, we will look at Hyatt the same way we do Anthony Schwartz – a speedy receiver who will never matter to the fantasy football community.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
“Rashee Rice has impressive ball skills, but he ran a limited route tree in his college, and he didn’t produce big numbers until his senior year despite playing in a pass-happy offense at SMU. Rice will get a disproportionate share of attention from dynasty managers because he landed with the Chiefs and will get to play with Patrick Mahomes, the best pure passer in the game. But landing with the Chiefs didn’t do much for Skyy Moore in his rookie year, and it can be argued that Moore was a far better prospect than Rice. I’m just not that interested in Rice at a price that’s been driven up by Chiefs-flation.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR)
“Jonathan Mingo is being drafted inside the top 100 picks of dynasty startups on Sleeper, a position that feels quite perplexing given his pre-draft stock. It’s true that the Panthers don’t have many exciting young players for Mingo to compete with, but we’ve been here before, hyping up players with a ‘someone must catch the ball argument,’ and more often than not, it falls flat on its face. Mingo is a nice prospect, but I’m content to let someone else pay up for him and be disappointed when the Panthers add serious competition in the next stage of their rebuilding process.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
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