Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
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Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
Zay Flowers spent four seasons at Boston College simply dominating as the team’s best wide receiver. He posted a career 33% dominator rating — highest in the draft class. His senior year was truly special as the 5-foot-9, 182-pound wideout racked up 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 receiving TDs. Per Sports Info Solution, Flowers finished 3rd in the class in unique routes run, 6th in target share (30%) and third in deep route percentage (49%). With first-round draft capital and projected inside/slot usage that will work well with QB Lamar Jackson…don’t count out Flowers emerging as Baltimore’s WR1. The best ability is availability… which has not been the case for either Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman. Targeting highly drafted rookie WRs tends to be a +EV strategy anyway. 26% of 1st round WRs drafted since 2013 have finished as top-24 options. 32% inside the top-36. Rookie WRs ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. Draft them all day every day.
Jonathan Mingo, the Carolina Panthers’ second-round pick from Ole Miss, is a compelling choice to lead all rookies in receiving yards in 2023, offering enticing +1200 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Mingo possesses an impressive size/speed combination, standing at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and boasting 4.46 speed. This physical profile, coupled with his ability to adjust to balls downfield and break tackles, makes him an appealing option for big receiving totals. Mingo’s downfield prowess should mesh well with his rookie quarterback, Bryce Young. In 2022, a notable 31% of his targets came on throws of 20-plus yards downfield, trailing only Marvin Mims in the class (38%). Remarkably, Mingo earned a superb 99.9 PFF grade when targeted downfield, equivalent to his draft classmates Jalin Hyatt and Jordan Addison. Furthermore, he excelled in generating yardage after the catch, ranking 10th in the FBS among wide receivers with at least 80 targets in yards after the catch per reception (7.5). Although Mingo had a breakout season at Ole Miss, amassing 51 catches for 861 receiving yards and five touchdowns, his trajectory was impacted by an injury in 2021. Nonetheless, he showcased his potential by averaging over 100 receiving yards per game in the first three games of the season before being sidelined. The Panthers receiving corps features two veterans in Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr., but Mingo has a strong chance to emerge as the team’s primary wide receiver in his rookie year. With his draft capital, an immediate opportunity for playing time, and ability to generate significant yardage both after the catch and downfield, Mingo presents a savvy bet to lead all rookies in receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Panthers General Manager Scott Fitterer previously drafted a wide receiver from Ole Miss in the second round, DK Metcalf, back in 2019. In his first year, Metcalf finished third among rookies in receiving yards, while leading in targets and routes run. This precedent adds further credibility to Mingo’s potential impact.
Darnell Mooney ranked 12th in air yards share (37%) and 15th in target share (27%) in his 11 healthy games played in 2022. If he can return to 100% off a late November broken ankle, the fourth-year wide receiver can play an integral role in Fields’ growth as a passer in 2023. Specifically, the two should be able to connect on Fields’ long ball, providing Mooney with spiked fantasy weeks. I’d also bet on Mooney emerging as the team’s primary slot receiver, with D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool operating from the outside in 3 WR sets.
Elijah Moore is in a brand-new situation with the Cleveland Browns and could easily emerge as the No. 2 WR on the offense. Because the talent is THERE. Moore was the WR2 overall during his last stretch of six games during his rookie season, despite catching passes from Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Josh Johnson. I am buying Moore with the hopes that he recaptures that same fantasy ceiling with an upgraded quarterback and a new situation in 2023. There’s a path where he is easily second on the team in targets, and I wouldn’t completely rule out him out-targeting Cooper after we saw Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones (a free agent at the end of the season) post similar production at times in 2022. He should project as the team’s locked-and-loaded starting slot WR, with rookie third-rounder Cedric Tillman pushing DPJ for snaps on the perimeter.
Cooper’s status as a “fake alpha” always seems to improve the efficiency of the No. 2 WRs he plays alongside, which further bolsters the case for Moore to hit value in 2023. Names like Michael Crabtree, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Donovan Peoples-Jones all thrived with Cooper. I expect Moore to be the latest name to benefit, as Deshaun Watson‘s new favorite vertical target from the slot. Watson posted the league’s second-highest passer rating targeting the slot in his final year in Houston (112.4).
Brandin saw a reduced role in the Texans’ offense this past season, but he still has plenty in the tank. The soon-to-be 30-year-old earned a 22% target share in 2022 (6.7 targets per game). After re-entering the lineup in Week 16 for Houston, Cooks finished the year as WR18 in points per game. He also averaged 1.64 yards per route run (39th), which was superior to anyone on Dallas last season not-named CeeDee Lamb (Brown, 70th). The former first-rounder is a great fit in Dallas but be warned that a heavy-run approach will make Cooks extremely boom-or-bust for fantasy purposes. He finished 9th in the percentage of catches for 20-plus yards (23%) and as PFF’s 7th-highest graded WR on targets 20-plus air yards – highlighting his big-play ability. Michael Gallup caught only one of his 11 deep targets last season.
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