The running back dead zone has generally been rounds three through six. Running backs in this range have struggled historically compared to wide receivers and even tight ends in the same span.
A couple of factors go into the running back dead zone. The top one is fantasy players pushing running backs up in the ADP after seeing an early run at the position in the first two rounds. However, that has changed over the past year or so. The general public has become more willing to draft wide receivers early in their drafts. With more wide receivers getting drafted in the first two rounds, running backs have been more appropriately ranked and drafted.
While the dead zone has shrunk, there are still running backs fantasy players want to avoid in that draft range. Below are five running backs inside the dead zone that fantasy players don’t want to draft this season.
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5 Running Backs to Avoid Inside the Dead Zone
Breece Hall (NYJ): ADP 29.7 | RB12
Hall’s ADP was higher a few months ago, but it’s been rightly on the decline for the past few weeks. Last year the former Iowa State star was the RB6, averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Unfortunately, it seems that Hall isn’t 100% healthy. The Jets have flirted with Dalvin Cook after reportedly wanting to land either Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs during the 2023 NFL Draft. However, they wouldn’t do that if the second-year star was healthy. While he’s worth the risk as the 12th running back off the board, I would draft the safer Mark Andrews (ADP 32.7) instead.
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC): ADP 35.7 | RB13
After the Jaguars traded away James Robinson, we saw Etienne’s fantasy production shoot through the roof. Starting in Week 7 through Week 17, the former Clemson star was the RB12, averaging 13.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Etienne averaged 5.1 yards per rushing attempt last season. More importantly, he finished 13th in the NFL with 220 rushing attempts. Yet, Etienne had the ninth-most rushing yards (1,125). Unfortunately, Jacksonville wants to lighten his workload this year. They signed D’Ernest Johnson in free agency and spent a third-round pick on Tank Bigsby. While he will be the lead guy, Etienne no longer has a featured workload and isn’t worthy of his late third-round ADP.
Kenneth Walker III (SEA): ADP 39.7 | RB15
Yes, it’s been over two months since Pete Carroll gave the fantasy community the double bird. No, I still want to stick him in a retirement home. Walker was a fantasy star after Rashaad Penny got inevitably got hurt. After taking over as the starter in Week 6, the former Michigan State star was the RB6 for the rest of the season, averaging 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, Seattle used a second-round draft pick on Zach Charbonnet, severely tanking Walker and the rookie’s fantasy value. While it breaks my heart to do it, I am drafting Amari Cooper (ADP 39.7), Calvin Ridley (46.3), and DJ Moore (51.3) over Walker.
Dameon Pierce (HOU): ADP 56.3 | RB19
Last year Pierce’s preseason ADP exploded after it was clear that he would be the featured guy in Houston’s backfield. The former Gator was outstanding as a rookie. He was the RB15, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before an ankle injury forced him to miss the final four weeks. However, the Texans added Devin Singletary in the offseason. The veteran has had at least 819 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons despite averaging only 11.1 rushing attempts per game during those two years. While Singletary won’t supplant Pierce as the lead running back, the veteran is a massive upgrade over Rex Burkhead and others. Unfortunately, the former Gator isn’t worthy of his RB19 spot.
Rachaad White (TB): ADP 67.7 | RB24
The Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette and only signed Chase Edmonds to replace him. While a few are holding out hope for Sean Tucker, White will be the featured running back in Tampa Bay this season. However, the former Arizona State star averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt as a rookie. More importantly, he lacks explosiveness, as 6.2% of his rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards, and only 3.1% were for 15 or more yards last season. I would draft a few running backs with a later ADP over White, including James Conner (74.7) and David Montgomery (77.3).
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.