Before you know it, we’re going to be entering the draft rooms for our fantasy football leagues. These are five running backs that fantasy managers should draft with caution heading into the 2023 fantasy football season.
5 Risky Players to Draft With Caution (2023 Fantasy Football)
According to our standard running back rankings on FantasyPros, Hall is listed as the 10th overall running back. Now, I’m not saying don’t draft the player, but in a standard league, I wouldn’t be spending a first round pick on a player that’s coming off a torn ACL. Furthermore, he’s not expected to be ready for day 1 of training camp.
If Hall is healthy, he warrants the first round selection. In half-PPR points per game, he averaged 15.4 points per game in just seven games. That was good enough for an RB6 ranking. There’s much to be desired with Hall’s pass-catching ability, as he earned a 34.4 percent target rate per route run last season.
But there’s a big IF on this, and it’s dependent on the knee of Hall. While he’s about seven months post-surgery, I could see a scenario where the Jets rush Hall back into the mix, and we see a similar situation with Hall as we did last season with J.K. Dobbins. We’ll see how it goes by the time the season starts, but I’d tread carefully when selecting the talented Jets running back.
Maybe I’m just salty from drafting Dobbins last season and not getting the results I wanted. However, Dobbins had major knee surgery in 2021, and then he needed another knee surgery after Week 6 of the 2022 season. Back-to-back knee surgeries, Dobbins sitting out of minicamp due to a contract situation, and head coach John Harbaugh citing a soft-tissue injury make me terrified of Dobbins this season. Meanwhile, I watched him struggle to break away from defenders on a consistent basis last season.
Listed as RB15 on our standard league rankings, I’d easily push Dobbins down the board further, and I might just pass on him altogether. He’s only played in 23 games over his three-year career, and while he’s been productive when on the field, I’ll have to follow the wait-and-see approach.
This team is going to be bad. Do you really think Conner is going to be one of the few bright spots for this team? Seeing Conner ranked ahead of Isiah Pacheco, David Montgomery, and Alvin Kamara makes me nervous.
Since his arrival in the Cardinals offense, Conner has been productive. He has put up over 750 rushing yards while managing over 35+ receptions in consecutive seasons. However, much of his success has been dependent on touchdowns. During his 28 games played in Arizona, he’s scored 26 touchdowns. However, he was part of an offense that had an offensive-minded head coach, a healthy Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. That all changed quite a bit with the Cardinals moving on from Kliff Kingsbury to Kyler Murray coming off a torn ACL and Hopkins being let go. Much of this offense will be dependent on James Conner. But can he stay healthy?
Conner is 28 years old and dealt with injuries last season. He missed four games completely and left three games early due to injuries. With a strength of schedule ranking of 20th, I’m not convinced that Conner can put up the RB1 numbers that we’re used to seeing from him.
Depending on how many teams your fantasy league has, you might be able to justify selecting Antonio Gibson as a backup running back with potential flex appeal. However, I’d much rather have players such as Khalil Herbert, Jamaal Williams, and Samaje Perine. Gibson will have appeal as a pass-catcher, but the downside is the uncertainty at the quarterback position in Washington.
During his three-year career, Gibson has 124 career receptions for 894 yards and five touchdowns. However, that’s only a 2.75 reception average per game. Meanwhile, Gibson has seen a significant drop in production when running the football. After posting 18 rushing touchdowns between his first two seasons in the NFL, he only recorded three rushing touchdowns in 2022. Lastly, he saw 109 fewer carries from 2021 to 2022.
All of this is concerning.
In PPR leagues last season, Gibson outscored his fantasy projection a total of six times and only posted double-digit point totals seven times. With a strength of schedule ranking of 18th, a split backfield, and potentially poor QB play on the horizon, I’d look elsewhere for a pass-catching back. Ranked 38th on our running back rankings, I think you could find similar or better production from players such as Zach Charbonnet, Kenneth Gainwell, Gus Edwards, and Jerick McKinnon.
Personally, I struggle with this one because I’m such a Spartan fan. However, Kenneth Walker battled through an injury last season, and the Seahawks drafted running back Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd Round of the 2023 NFL Draft. That is the first red flag in evaluating what to do with Walker.
As talented as he is, he does have a tough schedule. He’s got the 28th-ranked strength of schedule for backs, and he’s expected to split carries out of the backfield with rookie Charbonnet. While Walker did post 1,000+ yards rushing as a rookie with nine touchdowns, I do think there will be some regression from him this season especially if there’s any regression from quarterback Geno Smith. If he struggles to make some key throws, this offense won’t be on the field nearly as much as they were in 2022. Keep in mind that Seattle had the second-lowest time of possession for any offense in 2022 at 28:35.
Even though there’s much to be desired with Walker’s skill set, it’s hard for me to get behind his top-15 running back ranking and ADP of 31st overall. Last season, Walker was a steal due to his ADP, but by having a tougher schedule and a much more talented running back behind him to take touches, you’ll need to get Walker at the right price. Depending on how certain fantasy drafts fall, I’d consider taking players such as Aaron Jones, Isaiah Pacheco, and Alexander Mattison over Walker.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
