Every season we look toward which running backs might finally see their chance at an increased workload because we know how valuable those additional touches are, especially at the running back position.
With so many teams opting for a committee approach to the position, it can take time to identify those players who can command a large workload. Still, there are cues to take note of that signal a player could be in line for more touches than the season prior, and today we’ll be breaking down the running backs who are expected to see an uptick in carries.
Every season we look toward which running backs might finally see their chance at an increased workload because we know how valuable those additional touches are, especially at the running back position.
With so many teams opting for a committee approach to the position, it can take time to identify those players who can command a large workload. Still, there are cues to take note of that signal a player could be in line for more touches than the season prior, and today we’ll be breaking down the running backs who are expected to see an uptick in carries.
Running Backs Expected to See More Carries
Leonard Fournette has moved on, and all signs point to Rachaad White getting something close to a proper three-down role for the Buccaneers in 2023. The closest thing to a notable addition the Buccaneers made in this backfield was Chase Edmonds, who has never had more than 116 carries in a season, which he did back in 2021. White eclipsed that carry total last year as a rookie with 129 and saw 58 targets in the receiving game.
If we modestly project that White will get 60 targets (essentially the same as last season) and 180 carries (nine less than Leonard Fournette had in 2022), it’s easy to see how large of a workload that would be. Only nine running backs in the NFL saw that type of workload in 2022 – Fournette, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Josh Jacobs. The possibility of White ending up as an RB1 in 2023 is genuine.
The Buffalo Bills boast one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and James Cook figures to be a significant contributor in 2023. Cook was one of the most efficient runners in the entire league in 2022, and the upside is tantalizing when we think of what even a moderately expanded role could look like.
Of players with over 80 rushing attempts, Cook ranked seventh in yards per attempt with 5.7. The only running back ahead of him on that list is Breece Hall, who averaged 5.8 yards per attempt. He ranked second in true yards per carry, third in the league in yards per touch, and first in breakaway run rate per PlayerProfiler.
Devin Singletary is no longer in the picture, and while Damien Harris has entered the fold, Cook only needs part of the backfield to himself to be a difference-maker for fantasy football. With his level of efficiency combined with what he can contribute as a pass catcher, Cook could be on the brink of a true breakout season.
We’ve been talking about Alexander Mattison as a premier handcuff option for Dalvin Cook managers for the past few seasons, but Mattison now has hold of the lead back role following the Vikings’ release of Cook.
Mattison never had more than 134 attempts in a single season, and that total figures to grow significantly in 2023. He might not be the player prime Dalvin Cook was, but the increase in opportunity alone bears mentioning for fantasy purposes. He will still face competition for early down work from DeWayne McBride and figures to compete with Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu for third-down work, but this should be Mattison’s biggest season to date.
Fantasy managers who held onto him through the early parts of this offseason should either reap the reward in the form of newfound running back depth on their roster or capitalize on the trade market by selling high before the season starts. Regardless, Mattison should be in line for over 200 carries in 2023.
Tony Pollard enjoyed the best season of his professional career in 2022 without leading the team in rushing attempts. Ezekiel Elliott had 231 carries to Pollard’s 193, and Pollard was still the leading rusher on the team with 1,007 yards.
Elliott was released by the Cowboys earlier this offseason. Despite rumors of the team potentially spending early-round draft capital on a running back, Deuce Vaughn and Ronald Jones were the only notable additions they made to the position.
While it might not be the sizable jump that others on this list will make, Pollard should see something closer to the 231 carries Elliott had in 2022. If he’s fully recovered from his late-season injury, the path to repeating as an RB1 is clear for Pollard, and the upside is massive. With over 200 attempts and maintaining his level of involvement in the receiving game, Pollard has the potential to finish as a top-five option at the position in 2023.
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