Disclaimer: There is no such thing as a “Do-not-draft WR.” A player’s appearance on this list corresponds to their fantasy value relative to their current ADP (average draft position). For example, Garrett Wilson may qualify as a ‘DND’ in the first round. However, if he is available in the fourth round, he becomes a steal. We’re using our consensus ADP for PPR formats.

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2023 Fantasy Football Do Not Draft List: Wide Receivers

Let’s look at wide receivers that should be avoided in your 2023 fantasy football drafts based on their current ADPs.

DJ Moore (WR – CHI): WR22

Moore’s appearance on this list is not a reflection of his talent. What else is new? Truth is, the Bears’ new WR1 is not exactly stepping into an ideal situation.

Justin Fields is an electrifying athlete and fantasy football cheat code. However, as an NFL quarterback, he’s far from perfect. In 2022, Fields ranked 59th in pass grade (per PFF) and 46th in catchable pass rate.

The Bears attempted just 22.2 passes per game, which is by far the lowest in the NFL.

It’s difficult to expect a significant change in these trends. Even if there is a steady improvement in both these areas, Moore would still be in a less-than-ideal situation.

Currently sitting at WR22 on FantasyPros ECR, he’s going in the same range (or before) names like Terry McLaurin and Jerry Jeudy. Moore should be a hard pass.

Chris Godwin (WR – TB): WR26

Godwin has been a reliable addition to fantasy rosters for half a decade. In 2022, he was a model of consistency finishing with double-digit PPR points in 13 of 15 games. Don’t expect that to be the case in 2023.

Tom Brady is retired, which leaves Baker Mayfield as the Buccaneers’ starting QB.

Is further analysis necessary? Probably not, but it will be provided nonetheless.

Godwin was a major benefactor of generous volume last season. In 2023, he had just three games with fewer than eight targets. Mayfield averaged 28 pass attempts per game last season. Unless we expect Godwin to command a 34% target share (not likely with Mike Evans and Rachaad White in the picture), it’s difficult to expect anything close to a similar volume for Godwin.

Godwin finished 2023 as WR18, and he remains currently ranked. He is going from the greatest QB of all time to Baker Mayfield, who has produced a single top-18 fantasy WR in his NFL career: Jarvis Landry in 2019.

Despite his years of dependability, in this range, Godwin is the very definition of a do-not-draft WR.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND): WR33

Pittman is a quality WR and isn’t wildly overvalued at his current ADP (WR26). His addition to this list has more to do with his new QB, Anthony Richardson, who is going to be extremely hard to trust as a consistent passer.

Granted, the sample size is small, but the fact remains Richardson has never thrown for over 2,600 yards or finished with a completion percentage above 60 percent. He averaged just 19.6 pass attempts per game at Florida, and it doesn’t bode well that Pittman has notoriously relied on high volume to produce.

In 2022, Pittman finished as WR20 (PPR). He scored 19+ points four times and had at least 11 targets in each of those games.

It’s a long shot to expect Richardson to suddenly become a high-volume passer. A safe bet would be the Colts’ offense relies on him and Jonathan Taylor on the ground, and the pass-catchers eat second.

Pittman should still deliver the occasional good game, but he projects as more of a flex than a WR2 at this point. In that range, it’s hard to justify taking him over players like Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, or Mike Williams.

Treylon Burks (WR – TEN): WR37

Burks is an explosive athlete and has all the tools of a true WR1. He could easily make his appearance on this list laughable a year from now. That being said, it’s easy to make a case against him.

In 2022, the Titans attempted the second-fewest passes to WRs. In fact, since Mike Vrabel has been the head coach, they have never finished higher than 26th in pass attempts. That’ll happen when Derrick Henry is your running back.

With Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, and rookie QB Will Levis as the active QBs on their roster, it’s unlikely that changes anytime soon.

To make things worse for Burks, Tennessee just added DeAndre Hopkins.

Let’s recap: projected to have low volume on a run-first offense, mid-to-low tier QB play, and now major competition for targets, especially in the red zone.

Currently sitting at WR35, Burks qualifies as a do-not-draft.

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