It’s a tale as old as time in the sports world – contract-year players are incentivized to perform their absolute best to land a massive contract either with their existing team or with their next.
For fantasy football, players performing well only helps us build our rosters to take down our opponents each week. Here, we’ll look at a player from each skill position entering the final year of their contract and examine their outlook for this season.
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2023 Contract Year Players
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)
A reliable starter for the Titans in 2020 and 2021, Tannehill was hit with some injuries that cost him five games last season. In his absence, the team started rookie Malik Willis who they discovered wasn’t the future at the position, resulting in them selecting Will Levis.
In 12 games last season, Tannehill saw a substantial drop in production with just 2,536 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions. To be fair, the wide receiver position for the Titans was notoriously bad last season. Still, the team may let Tannehill start a chunk of the season before turning things over to Levis, which is a common trend.
Tannehill is the QB32 for fantasy purposes and mostly a non-factor for fantasy purposes.
Mike Evans (WR – TB)
If you’re looking for a model of consistency over the years, it’s been Evans. He’s had 1,000 yards or more every season of his career. Those came with pass-happy QBs in Jameis Winston and Tom Brady.
Now, with Baker Mayfield under center, the upside for Evans, Chris Godwin, and the rest of the weapons on the team may not facilitate a 1,000-yard season in 2023. Still, Evans should be a go-to for Mayfield, especially down the field for 10-plus yards.
According to Pro Football Focus, Evans had 77 targets of 10-plus yards down the field. The yardage upside might be limited with Mayfield, but touchdowns should still come Evans’ way, which alone could help him perform better than his current WR34 ADP in PPR leagues. Evans will turn just 30 during the season, so age shouldn’t be an issue.
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
This one is really a non-starter in terms of whether or not he’ll be good due to his contract. Henry is used hundreds of times per season – 349 carries in 2023 – and never seems to slow down. Draft Henry no matter what. He’s RB8 in PPR leagues.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)
After getting traded mid-season, Hockenson quickly transitioned with the Vikings, catching 60 of 86 targets for 519 yards and three touchdowns. Between Weeks 9 and 17, he was the TE2, only behind Kelce.
With running back Dalvin Cook shipped out of town, the Vikings and head coach Kevin O’Connell will likely throw even more this year. WR Adam Thielen is also out of town, and, while the team drafted Jordan Addison, it’s not farfetched to consider Hockenson as the No. 2 option in this offense. Draft him confidently as TE3.
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