As the draft season approaches, we must research who we should draft for our team. We also have to realize who we will remove from our draft boards. Avoiding the “traps” of the draft is one of the essential rules of drafting because you can’t win your league at the draft, but you can lose it with incorrect picks. Today, we will walk you through a position that is challenging enough to draft without having to navigate around the landmines that could destroy your championship hopes. Let’s start with a tight end who finished strong last year but could detonate on your team in 2023.

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Do Not Draft List: Tight Ends

George Kittle (TE – SF)

With George Kittle scoring seven touchdowns in the last four games in 2022, having someone say to fade him in 2023 seems ludicrous. However, you can not judge this book by its cover if you plan to identify which tight end to draft correctly. In those same four games, Deebo Samuel missed three. Brandon Aiyuk was on the field but only recorded one game with over seven targets. The last issue surrounding George Kittle is which quarterback he will have under center. Currently, Brock Purdy looks to be ahead of schedule with his UCL injury. However, Trey Lance and Sam Darnold are in the mix in case he cannot play or cannot recapture the magical run from 2022.

George Kittle scored a career-high 11 touchdowns; however, he averaged 51 receiving yards per game. Touchdowns always regress toward the mean, and with George Kittle sitting at 62 on the Average Draft Position (ADP) board, he becomes a risky investment early in your draft. The San Francisco 49ers have a multitude of mouths to feed in the passing game for a team whose scheme focuses on running the ball. Kittle could be lost in the fold and should land on your do-not-draft list in 2023.

Darren Waller (TE – NYG)

In PPR formats, Darren Waller has an ADP of 81 and is getting a swell of support after switching from the Las Vegas Raiders to the New York Giants. The New York Giants are trending in the right direction, and all of their acquisitions land in the “slot receiver” role, with the NFL analysts stating that Darren Waller is the alpha receiver in New York. On paper, Waller looks slated to explode in 2023. However, we caution you to rethink drafting him in 2023.

The first issue with Darren Waller is keeping him healthy and on the field at age 30. This debate point has been discussed ad nauseam, so now that we said it let’s move on. Next, we must hope Daniel Jones can have another great season as a quarterback, even though a “great” season for Daniel Jones consisted of overproducing as a runner and not a passer since he only accumulated a 15-5 TD-INT ratio.

Darren Waller also faces the most challenging strength of schedule (SOS) for tight ends and has shown signs of trending downward, as he broke exactly zero tackles last season. This combination should raise a red flag in your draft as Waller looks more like the ghost of ” Elite Tight End of NFL Past” than a viable option in 2023.

Evan Engram (TE – JAC)

Evan Engram had a great season in 2022 after four years of failing to meet expectations. He recorded 73 receptions, 766 yards, and four touchdowns. In 2023, the Jaguars continue to build an ample pass-catching repertoire around Trevor Lawrence as Calvin Ridley comes off his suspension to join the team. In PPR scoring, Engram is being drafted 97th overall and the eighth tight end off the board.

Doug Pederson likes to use multiple weapons in the passing and running games. With the plethora of pass-catching options, plus the Jaguars adding a second running back to the backfield with Tank Bigsby, the Jaguars are looking to spread the wealth in 2023. With the Doug Pederson system being absorbed by the Jaguars’ offense, Evan Engram could return to earth this season as he faces the third-hardest SOS for tight ends.

At Engrams ADP, you could draft another position and target safer floors with higher target amounts in players like Pat Freiermuth (111 overall) and Dalton Schultz (133 overall), thus allowing you to build a stronger overall team for your fantasy football 2023 campaign.

Honorable Mention

Irv Smith Jr. (TE – CIN)

Irv Smith Jr. has an ADP of 157 in PPR scoring. Throwing the dart on this tight end with upside is less risky with this lower ADP. However, Irv Smith Jr. is the tight end I labeled “graduation goggles” in 2023. Graduation goggles is a term that describes you looking back fondly at a moment because it’s a sentimental time, forgetting all of the negative moments that connect to the event. Irv Smith Jr. is the definition of this term. He now plays on a solid offense with the Cincinnati Bengals and had a great Week 17 game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Finally, he possesses the “What if he stays healthy” narrative, which is tied to his name year after year. We implore you to look elsewhere as the Bengals season starts against strong opponents in the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens, which could have you looking to stream your tight end sooner rather than later, making him a wasted dart throw for your fantasy team.

Irv Smith Jr. could become the fifth option in an offense with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd. The upside sounds excellent when you build the perfect narrative; the issue is looking at that narrative with graduation goggles instead of reality, where he will be more of a DFS target than a redraft target in 2023.

Hopefully, this list helps save you from a trap within your fantasy draft and allows you to correctly identify the tight end that will help you win your league in 2023. Remember always to read the excellent work here at FantasyPros, and if you need any more help with your team, don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter at @jpep20. Good luck in 2023, and let’s win those fantasy football championships!

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