MyFantasyLeague.com (MFL) is a popular destination for flexible and customizable fantasy leagues. MFL provides the following note about their ADP Report:
You might see some results that at first don’t make sense since dynasty leagues tend to draft earlier, and players of interest do not always match up with traditional redraft leagues. In addition, some leagues have scoring systems that are very skewed towards awarding a lot more points to a certain position, which would entice owners to pick players in that position (like quarterback) first, rather than more traditional scoring system leagues.
Therefore, looking into these rankings, I’m choosing to view them through the lens of dynasty leagues – for rookies and non-rookies alike.
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ROOKIE RANKINGS
Zay Flowers (WR4, No. 10 Overall)
While the 2023 NFL Draft class of wide receivers likely won’t age as a historical one, Zay Flowers was my WR1 in the class nonetheless. Flowers has an elite ability to get open, can win to all levels of the field, and plays with much more physicality than his size lets on. Flowers may live mostly in the slot as a rookie in Baltimore with Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman around too, but Flowers should gradually evolve into a weapon regardless of his alignment.
I also like the landing spot in Baltimore, even if the Lamar Jackson era of Ravens football hasn’t led to any top fantasy finishes for WRs. With Lamar securing his long-term contract and the arrivals of Flowers and new OC Todd Monken, we might be on the dawn of a Ravens’ offense that features much more of a traditional passing game. (Which, it turns out, Lamar is also very good at!)
At a minimum, Flowers and his 4.4 speed should be able to replicate Marquise Brown‘s production from 2019-2021 – including Hollywood’s 2021 peak, when he finished as the WR23. Flowers, in my opinion, has more upside, though. As I wrote in my NFL Draft profile on him: “It’s hard not to reminisce on peak Antonio Brown when you watch Zay Flowers play football.” That’s high praise and an unfair expectation to set, but if any 2023 rookie wideout is built to reach those heights, it’s Flowers.
Luke Musgrave (TE4, No. 25 Overall)
Luke Musgrave is a fascinating case because he’ll be a 23-year-old rookie but enters the NFL relatively unknown due to a multitude of injuries in college. Musgrave produced and looked explosive in his brief moments on the field at Oregon State, and that, coupled with his strong athletic testing, was enough for the Packers to use a second-round pick on him.
He’ll have every chance to win Green Bay’s TE1 job from the jump following the offseason departure of Robert Tonyan, and Musgrave could be the type of big-bodied target over the middle that first-time starting QBs, like Jordan Love, frequently lock onto. He’s nimble for his size, too, so expect the Packers to spray him with designed YAC opportunities.
This isn’t all to say that Musgrave is a perfect prospect outside of his health concerns; he does lack refinement and has iffy hands. But if Musgrave stays on the field, drafters should at least get an Evan Engram type of player, with more of a Dallas Goedert type as a fair projection.
OVERALL RANKINGS
DeVonta Smith (WR13, No. 31 Overall)
Do we…not realize how good DeVonta Smith is already? He is a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and it’s not like it hasn’t translated to fantasy results for Smith. Behind his line of 95 receptions/1,196 yards/7 touchdowns, Smith finished as the WR10 in 2022. With his age and secure role in the Eagles’ offense, in addition to his route-running prowess suggesting continued success, that WR10 finish is a valid short-term expectation for Smith to replicate. And long-term? I’d expect even better.
His team is the only thing holding Smith back from becoming a true fantasy alpha. Heading into his third pro season, you’ll start to hear contract chatter around Smith starting next year, and the Eagles have a lot of future cap space tied up elsewhere. I won’t be shocked if trade rumors come out of that. But even putting that aside, Smith would be a smash WR1 if AJ Brown misses any games too, which he did in 2020 and 2021. There aren’t five WRs I’d prioritize in dynasty drafts over Smith.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR32, No. 78 Overall)
This is a similar idea but to a lesser degree, in that Aiyuk has proven himself a massively talented player whose biggest limitation in fantasy is his team. One key difference between DeVonta Smith and Aiyuk, though, is that Aiyuk is one year closer to free agency.
The 49ers already paid Deebo Samuel and have many other key players on the roster to pay soon, too, so they may float Aiyuk on the trade market while he’s on his fifth-year option ahead of 2024. It’s not the best advice to draft somebody in dynasty with the intention of an eventual trade, but just the potential of Aiyuk as a WR1 in a pass-happier offense is enough to justify it when he’s ranked as the WR32. It’s not like his short-term outlook in San Francisco is all that grim, either; he was the WR15 in 2022.
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