As the dynasty fantasy football landscape continues to evolve, identifying promising rookies who can make an immediate impact is crucial for a successful dynasty draft. However, it’s equally important to recognize that not every highly-touted rookie will live up to the hype and deliver consistent production over the long term. We’ve gathered insights from three esteemed experts—Pat Fitzmaurice, Tom Strachan, and Mike Fanelli—who share their thoughts on six NFL rookies they believe are best to avoid in dynasty drafts.
While it’s important to note that these rookies may still hold potential in redraft or seasonal leagues, our focus here is on dynasty formats, where long-term investment is paramount. These experts have conducted thorough evaluations based on player profiles, landing spots, depth charts, and other critical factors to help dynasty managers make informed decisions when it comes to their draft selections.
Remember, avoiding a potentially overvalued prospect can be just as important as discovering a hidden gem, as it allows you to allocate your resources more efficiently and build a sustainable dynasty roster.
- More Dynasty Articles & Advice
- Dynasty Startup Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Dynasty Draft Simulator
Rookies the Experts are Fading in Dynasty Leagues
Who is one rookie RB you’re fading in dynasty startup drafts ahead of this season and why?
Kendre Miller (RB – NO)
“Kendre Miller had a productive college career at TCU. However, the rookie doesn’t have a pathway to consistent work this year. He is third on the depth chart behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. While Kamara is facing a suspension, Williams is coming off a career year in 2022. More importantly, both veterans will be with the Saints through the 2024 season. Unfortunately, Miller has an uphill fight at becoming a consistent fantasy player, while his third-round draft capital isn’t enough to keep the Saints from replacing him a year from now.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC)
“Tank Bigsby is a buzzy rookie RB prospect due largely to the fact that he was a Day 2 draft pick. He’s a tough north-south runner, but it’s hard to imagine Bigsby displacing Travis Etienne, who was a much better prospect than Bigsby coming out of college and didn’t disappoint last year in his first NFL season after missing all of 2021 with a foot injury. Bigsby isn’t going to play on passing downs because he doesn’t have a true third-down skill set, and it’s hard to imagine him getting more early-down work than Etienne, who ran for 1,125 yards in 2022 and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. I don’t dislike Bigsby as a prospect; I just think he’ll have an uphill climb to fantasy relevance.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
“De’Von Achane – At less than 190lbs and 5ft8, Achane is far from the size we’d like for a running back in the NFL. Add to this that the Dolphins already have Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert and have offered a contract to Dalvin Cook. Achane has speed to burn and might make some splashy plays, but he doesn’t have the size profile to become a three-down back, and for the cost of a top-90 pick in startups, there are many paths to failure.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
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