There’s never been a worse time to be a running back in the National Football League. The league has disrespected and devalued the position so much in recent memory that it’s starting to bleed over into fantasy football.
The concerns are understandable. Running backs traditionally have higher injury rates than other positions, which makes them highly fragile fantasy assets. We’re also in a bit of a golden age of wide receivers. The talent and depth of the position – not to mention the rising popularity of QB/WR stacking – will continue to push running backs down draft boards.
Despite that, we won’t let the current running back landscape prevent us from covering the position. Today, we’re trying to find some of the best values at the position.
Here are three running backs outside the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) top 50 that you should target in every draft:
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Top 3 RBs Outside the ECR Top 50 (2023 Fantasy Football)
James Conner (RB – ARI): ECR 51 | RB23
Arizona running back James Conner is currently being drafted right outside the ECR top 50 in Half-PPR formats, so we’re cutting it close with this one.
Despite Conner being ranked higher in the FantsasyPros ECR than the other two backs listed below, this feels like the riskiest selection of them all. Not only are you investing higher draft capital on Conner, but the situation in Arizona could hit rock bottom this season.
Kyler Murray‘s availability this season will determine how competitive Arizona’s offense is, but that’s not the only red flag attached to Conner. He’s also an aging running back who has started 15+ games only once in his career.
While those aren’t usually attributes we look for in running backs, there are some good signs for Conner if Murray misses time. Last season, Conner’s usage and fantasy production skyrocketed without Murray on the field.
In eight games with Murray, Conner averaged 13.5 PPR points. In five games without Murray, Conner jumped up to 18.8 points per game. Arizona has added nothing behind Conner, and it makes sense for them to ride their veteran running back until the wheels fall off.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): ECR 77 | RB29
You’ll never feel great about investing in a player facing a probable suspension, but drafting Alvin Kamara at RB29 is an easy smash. New Orleans did add Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller to the running back room, but neither player is currently on Kamara’s level.
Williams is a coach’s best friend who had a league-leading 17 rushing touchdowns last season in Detroit. Williams will be involved on early downs and at the goal line, but his TD numbers will significantly regress in 2023, and he’s a near-zero in the passing game. Miller is a talented prospect, but we haven’t seen him since his meniscus injury in the College Football Playoffs.
Even in a down year, Kamara finished as the RB18 in total points last season and the RB17 on a points-per-game basis. The risks of a multi-game suspension are already baked into Kamara’s ADP and then some. Why not take the plunge on the RB2 available in the seventh round?
Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA): ECR 110 | RB40
Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet is a talented, athletic (8.71 RAS) prospect with round-two draft capital and good receiving skills. To steal and alter a line from the sitcom Seinfeld, “he’s got everything I ever wanted in a running back, except for the depth chart.”
The only thing keeping Charbonnet from a potentially massive workload is his backfield mate in Seattle. Before the 2023 NFL Draft, Kenneth Walker III was looked at as a borderline top-five dynasty running back. Now, the situation has muddied for both prospects.
There’s always the chance that Walker III remains the guy at the running back position, and Charbonnet is merely the handcuff. There’s also a strong possibility that they share carries, and Charbonnet handles the majority of the goalline and passing-game work. In that scenario, Charbonnet is a potential lottery ticket currently ranked outside the ECR top 100.
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