Each one of us wants to tilt the odds in our favor. Whether it’s in betting on a game or drafting your fantasy football roster. You want to eliminate factors that provide risk and give yourself the best opportunity and the most advantages to achieve victory.
In your fantasy football drafts, deciding between players is typically based upon the more upside or the less risk.
To assist in eliminating risk, there are specific players that fantasy managers need to avoid to better their chances for success. Check out how to find success when drafting the quarterback position.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Quarterbacks to Avoid in 2023
Here are three quarterbacks that fantasy managers should avoid for the 2023 fantasy football season.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
The current ADP might not indicate this, but Kyler Murray still gets plenty of love from fantasy managers. They love to grab Murray late, hoping they snuck a top fantasy quarterback onto their roster without coughing up valuable draft capital. There is the question if Murray is a top quarterback for 2023. There are plenty of red flags that should concern fantasy managers.
All signs point to the Arizona Cardinals tanking this season. With the devoid of talent on this squad, it looks highly likely that the Cardinals will land two top-five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Murray says he aims for a Week 1 return, but there is zero reason to rush him back. Murray is still recovering from an ACL tear, and dual-threat quarterbacks returning from that injury scream avoid at every turn.
His scrambling ability makes Murray a fantasy threat and allows him to finish as a QB1 in the last four seasons. The likelihood of a drop-off in fantasy production and losing his main target DeAndre Hopkins, who was released, should force fantasy managers to stay clear of Murray. The offense will center around running back James Conner and wide receiver Marquise Brown but will Murray be behind center?
Another risk factor is the coaching with the Cardinals firing Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury called plays like he was playing Madden, which was great for fantasy but did not help the Cardinals win any games. Enter former Philadelphia Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon as the Cardinals’ new head coach. Gannon faces an uphill battle with a roster that will be lucky to win five games this season.
Murray is an exciting player who thrives on making plays with his feet. However, his running ability will be less effective and utilized less frequently this season as he continues to rehab from his knee surgery. With limited running capacity, Murray is a quarterback to avoid this season.
Brock Purdy (QB-SF)
Brock Purdy had a fairytale season in 2022. Something you can only dream of and see in movies. Purdy came out of nowhere to start for the San Francisco 49ers only because they lost Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo to season-ending injuries. Enter the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. All Purdy did was win all five regular-season starts and guide the 49ers to the NFC Championship game.
Ironically, Purdy suffered the same fate as his fellow Niners quarterbacks and sustained an injury in the NFC title game. He is still on the mend, and there are reports that Purdy will be ready to battle to lead the Niners’ offense when they kick off the 2023 season. However, not so fast. The Niners made some noise in the 2021 NFL Draft when they traded up to the third pick and selected Trey Lance as their future quarterback. His future might come as soon as this season. There will be a training camp battle to determine who the Niners will pick to lead an offense filled with explosive playmakers and offensive genius Kyle Shanahan.
Purdy made a splash and passed the test last season. He registered a 107.3 passer rating in nine games and passed for double-digit touchdowns across his six regular season matchups. Speaking of matchups, he was facing bottom-dwelling defenses and was very successful, to his credit. Considering the surrounding talent, Shanahan put him in the best possible positions, and he was not forced to do too much.
The caveat here is, can Purdy do it again? Purdy was the QB13 during his six weeks but was not forced to face adversity. NFL defensive coordinators now have film on Purdy, and he will be confronted with different looks and asked to make a few crucial plays each game. The Niners have yet to name their starting quarterback for the season opener, making you wonder if Purdy’s elbow is ready to go. It is also a sign that maybe the Niners want to see what Lance can do in this offense. Lance brings a different skill set, and his running ability is a serious threat.
His current ADP signals apprehension from fantasy managers regarding Purdy’s health and concerns about Lance. However, if Purdy wins the job, there are still legitimate concerns that should make you avoid Purdy in your fantasy football drafts.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
Every NFL fan is well aware of the story with Tua Tagovailoa. Tua plays in a thrilling Dolphins’ offense with an innovator calling the plays in head coach Mike McDaniel, and he gets to throw to two WR1s in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
So why is Tua on this QB to Avoid list?
It’s pretty simple. Tua makes fantasy managers nervous with his penchant for injuries, specifically concussions. There are vivid scenes of Tua and his hands spasming after suffering through a huge hit. Everyone cringed and felt concerned about his current and future health and safety.
Tua did return to the field after this horrifying incident, and we can debate if he should have or not, but his well-being and future should take precedence. Once returning to the field, Tua was exceptional, leading the league with 8.9 yards per attempt and a 50-% deep ball completion percentage. The former Alabama signal-caller also topped the NFL with a 105.5 QBR and a 6.3 TD%.
Tua elevated his game and produced a QB15 finish for fantasy managers last season. His 13 games last season were career-high, and his numbers proved he can effectively lead this explosive Dolphins offense. His quality of play should not be in question. If there were not such grave concerns regarding his injuries, Tua would be considered a top-tier quarterback.
It has been reported that Tua suffered three concussions last season. His propensity for concussions can not be overlooked despite his valuable production. The subsequent concussion could be his last in the NFL. Tua expressed that he considered retiring last season due to concussions.
One path to a successful fantasy football season is to minimize risk. You are selecting players with a track record of success and eliminating pitfalls in your lineup. Tua will win you some weeks, but you will be nervous watching him play or hearing there is news coming from Miami about an injury. Availability is the best ability. You need to keep your exposure to Tua minimal and not draft him early in your drafts to reduce the risk factor.
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Dennis Sosic is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dennis, check out his archive and follow him @CALL_ME_SOS.