Jordan Woodson | Thu, Jul 20th 2023, 7:16am EDT

3 Overvalued Players to Avoid on NFFC Leagues (2023 Fantasy Football)

A new week means another fresh look at NFFC ADP data. Last week, I updated some of the best values you can find on NFFC tournaments. This week, we’re highlighting three more overpriced players to avoid according to FantasyPros ECR.

For the offseason, you can use our ADP tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites and our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based ADP. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.

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Overpriced Players To Avoid on NFFC (2023 Fantasy Football)

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): ADP 37.70 | ECR 75

As mentioned in last month’s article, almost every single quarterback is going higher in NFFC tournaments than their ranking here at FantasyPros. We’re not talking about a small difference, either. We’re talking about massive, multi-round differences between ADP and the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings.

That can be due to several factors. To win one of these massive tournaments, you need upside and correlation. Team stacking and building around your star quarterback is one of the most popular building blocks in both best ball and high-stakes tournaments.

Even so, a 40-point difference between ADP and FantasyPros ECR is kind of staggering to look at. I understand the need for a top quarterback in these tournaments, but are you comfortable drafting Justin Herbert in a 1QB league over all of Deebo Samuel, Kenneth Walker, TJ Hockenson, Amari Cooper, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Keenan Allen?

Dalvin Cook (RB – FA): ADP 48.44 | ECR 77

I get it, I get it. Dalvin Cook will find a new home sometime between now and the 2023 NFL regular season. Heck, he might find one before training camp opens in a few weeks.

The FantasyPros ECR will undoubtedly skyrocket as soon as Cook officially signs, but I’m having a hard time with his late Round Four NFFC ADP over the past week. Talent isn’t a question, but there’s a lot of uncertainty right now.

If Cook signs with the Miami Dolphins, he’ll be the 1A with rookie Devon Achane mixed into passing situations. One of Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson Jr. would likely stick around, but their role would be obsolete barring an injury. That’s a great landing spot.

If Cook signs with the New York Jets – another reported suitor for his services – what’s his projected volume going to look like? Is Breece Hall a PUP candidate or will we see a two-headed monster all season? That’s a questionable landing spot.

I love Cook’s game and think he has a few years left in his tank. I’m just not sure I’m taking him over all of Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Joe Mixon, Christian Kirk, and Christian Watson until I know more about his situation.

Michael Mayer (TE – LV): ADP 198.22 | ECR 240

While the majority of quarterbacks are overvalued on NFFC, the tight end position is mostly a buyer’s market. Almost every tight end has an ADP lower than ECR.

The only overvalued tight ends are rookies Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and Michael Mayer. I talked about Kincaid last month, so I’ll highlight Mayer today with some of the same talking points.

For one, rookie tight ends just don’t produce. At least not consistently. Then there’s Mayer’s situation in Las Vegas. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo targeted tight ends throughout his career in San Francisco, but his health is a question mark right now.

Mayer will also find himself pretty far down the pecking order in Las Vegas. Wide receiver Davante Adams will (and should) receive the vast majority of passing targets while running back Josh Jacobs figures to be heavily involved again after a breakout 2022 season. I’m not sure the volume will be there for Mayer in his rookie season.

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