Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry, I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be looking to draft a ton this year. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Derek Brown’s Players to Target
Here are a few of my players to target in 2023 fantasy football.
I know standing with Tony Pollard as my RB1 isn’t the most popular take, but I won’t back down from loving players with otherworldly efficiency, especially ones that step into a lead role. We have long pined to see Pollard in a lead-back role, and now that we finally get it, people are backing off their Pollard love. Pollard is also the RB9 in ECR which is mind-boggling to me, so let me get this straight. Last year, Pollard authored an RB8 finish while ranking 30th in snap share (50.9%) and 34th in opportunity share (48.1%), and we now have him ranked lower than that entering 2023. Make it make sense. Pollard is a fantasy monster that will be unleashed in 2023. He was top-five in breakaway run rate, yards created per touch, yards per route run, and yards per touch last year. Pollard will cede some snaps to another back this season, whether that’s Malik Davis, Rico Dowdle, or another replacement level shmo, but this won’t deter him from his destiny as a top-three running back in fantasy in 2023. Pollard’s ceiling is Austin Ekeler 2.0.
“Dread it, run from it…destiny arrives all the same. And now it’s here.” ‘Mondre season is upon us. Stevenson is one of the best backs in the NFL, and he will be the engine of the Patriots’ offense this year. Last year, he was first in yards after contact per attempt, eighth in breakaway run rate, 18th in yards per route run, and tenth in target per route run rate (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets per PFF). The Patriots leaned on Stevenson heavily last season, as he recorded 12 games with at least 60% of the snaps played, averaging 18.7 touches and 122.8 total yards over that timeframe. In those games, Stevenson had an outstanding 18.8% target share and a 60.1% route run rate. Bill O’Brien tends to lean on one back, and that will be ‘Mondre. During O’Brien’s last five years of leading an NFL offense, his starting running back saw at least a 58.7% opportunity share, with some backs earning up to 73.9% (ninth-best in 2016) of the backfield touches. New England will work in other backs to give Stevenson a breather occasionally, but he will still be a workhorse playing 65% or more of the weekly snaps. With the size to be the goal line hammer and the soft hands to catch plenty of passes, ‘Mondre can contend for RB1 overall if everything breaks his way.
Dobbins looks set for a career year in 2023. Todd Monken gifted top-ten opportunity shares to Nick Chubb and Peyton Barber in his last two years leading an NFL offense. This type of workhorse role for Dobbins would be a fantastic new development, as he’s never seen more than 57.5% of the backfield opportunities. Dobbins has been chirping about a new contract as he enters a contract year, and I love to bet on players fighting for their second NFL contract. A hungry and healthy Dobbins should be incredibly productive this year and his talent has never been a question. Last year operating on one healthy leg, Dobbins ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway percentage, and 24th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries per PFF). During his rookie season, he was top 12 in each of these metrics (eighth, second, 11th). Dobbins is an RB2 that offers RB1 upside.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*