There are times and places in life when it makes sense to be conservative, but fantasy football doesn’t make the list. As legendary racecar driver Ricky Bobby would say, “If you’re not first, you’re last.” When it comes to fantasy football draft strategy, it often pays to be aggressive. That can mean a number of things, but it primarily means finding upside in players compared to where they’re being drafted. If you hit on enough high-upside players, you’ll find yourself in the fantasy playoffs with a shot at a coveted championship.
We asked our featured experts for their running backs, wide receivers and tight ends with the most upside at their current ADP along with players they’re passing on in that same range.
- AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
High-Upside Players for Fantasy Football Drafts
Which RB comes with the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP and which player(s) would you pass on with a higher ADP at his position?
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
“The guy was a touch monster down the stretch last year (21 per game over last 4 games), and it’s like all anyone can think about is his Achilles. Seemingly healthy with the backfield to himself, he is a screaming value. I’ll gladly snag him ahead of Dalvin Cook (no team) and Dameon Pierce in drafts.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“Jahmyr Gibbs has the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP. While many will draft him far behind fellow rookie Bijan Robinson, Gibbs’ upside is astronomical-especially in the receiving game. Gibbs has a shot to be a 100-target player in this Lions offense and could be a 250-touch player overall. His receiving workload could be similar to that of Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler this season. Players I’d pass on for Gibbs: Breece Hall, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne.”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)
“The uncertainty of rookie running backs tends to push down their ADP. We’ve heard enough tales about Bijan Robinson to get him into the first round of fantasy drafts, but Jahmyr Gibbs’s fourth-round ADP can be a steal if it holds. Detroit selected Gibbs just four picks after Robinson in April’s NFL Draft, and they have an ascending offense with one of the best offensive lines in the league. His pass-catching and explosiveness boost his ceiling in that offense. I would pass on Kenneth Walker, an unproven pass-catcher with a new rookie teammate to compete with, and take Gibbs a few picks later.”
– Aaron Larson (FantasyPros)
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
“Antonio Gibson can easily smash his ADP at RB34. Yes, Brian Robinson is still there to take carries, but with Jd Mckissic gone, Gibson has a clear path to the Jerick McKinnon role in new Washington OC Eric Bieniemy’s offense. Gibson was the half-PPR RB10 and RB12 in 2021 and 2020, respectively, and he could make a run at those numbers again in 2023 on passing volume alone. I don’t want any part of Breece Hall at his current ADP. Despite reports that Hall is running at 23 MPH as he returns from a torn ACL suffered in October, straight-line speed is quite different than rushing that ball in an NFL game. There is too much of a track record for running backs needing well over a year to return to form for me even think about Hall as an early-round pick.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
“This is a real head-scratcher for me. Yes, Alexander Mattison hasn’t done it before as the #1 guy, I get it, but we have seen Mattison be really good in the past filling in for Dalvin Cook when he has been hurt. Looking at the conditions for Mattison in 2023, they could not be any better. He has no competition behind him, he will be on the field a ton, he will get plenty of goal-to-go carries for the Vikings, and the Vikings’ offense will put up a lot of points. Getting this guy in round 5 of your drafts should be considered theft, plain and simple. I will happily take Mattison over the likes of Cam Akers, Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders, and Aaron Jones. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)
“Miles Sanders’ is not usually associated with the word “upside,” which makes sense at his current ADP of RB20. Even with a rookie under center, the Panthers project to be a run-heavy team in a division where the Saints and Falcons allowed the 8th and 9th most rushing yards per game, respectively. Over the last three years, there has only been one back to have 250+ carries (14.7 per game) and finish outside of the top 12. I think he has a better chance of finishing in the top 12 than Travis Etienne (ADP RB13), who lacks passing volume and shares work with Tank Bigsby.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
“Isiah Pacheco (current ADP RB 26 Ringo’s Rank RB 7) Isiah Pacheco plays for arguably the most explosive offense in the league. He also played most of last season with a torn labrum and still played great. In 2023, he’ll be the starter and knows the playbook inside and out. And if he siphons off even a little of Jericho McKinnon’s workload (which I expect him to do), he’ll be a top-ten RB imo. I’m passing on: Jonathan Taylor (current ADP RB 5), Josh Jacobs (current ADP RB 9), Rhamondre Stevenson (current ADP RB 10), Breece Hall (current ADP RB 11).”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC)
“Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs – Only three running backs had multiple RB1 overall weeks last Fantasy season: Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler and Jerick McKinnon. Yet, there are currently forty-three backs being drafted ahead of McKinnon. He is the epitome of a high-upside play, as shown by the ceiling he showed at the end of the season last year. McKinnon scored nine touchdowns over the final six games, including eight receiving scores showing that he is arguably Patrick Mahomes‘ favorite Red Zone option. I would take him ahead of Tyler Allgeier, Damien Harris, and even his teammate Isiah Pacheco.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Which WR comes with the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP and which player(s) would you pass on with a higher ADP at his position?
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
“The guy is an athletic freak with the size and speed to score from anywhere on the field, but supposed TD regression has everyone running for the hills. The pace he was on isn’t sustainable, but nearly every other metric had CW impressing greatly as a rookie. I prefer him over DJ Moore, who enters a run-heavy system.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)
Gabe Davis (WR – BUF)
“Gabe Davis has the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP. No, as many fantasy managers expected, he didn’t break out as a star last season, but he wasn’t as bad as you remember. He finished as the WR35 in average fantasy points per game (minimum 4 games) and WR27 in total points last season. The Bills still haven’t found an additional complement to Stefon Diggs, and I’m buying in on Davis a year after everyone else (post-hype sleeper?). A stat line of 60-1000-10 is doable. Players I’d pass on for Davis: DeAndre Hopkins, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy.”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)
“It’s time to set an alarm clock and wake up for Gabriel Davis’ post-hype sleeper season (ADP WR41). During a season that burned fantasy managers, Davis still managed to finish as the WR27 while missing two games. This offseason, the team lost their third most targetted receiver in Isaiah McKenzie and drafted Dalton Kincaid in the first round. Given the historic production of rookie TEs, Davis is the locked-in second option for Josh Allen. That’s a situation I’d rather bet on than more talented WRs such as Kadarius Toney and Jahan Dotson (ADP WR38 & WR39).”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Skyy Moore (WR – KC)
“If you’re searching for wide receiver upside, look no further than Skyy Moore with an ADP in the late WR50s. His rookie season was hardly impressive, but Moore drew rave reviews in Chiefs minicamp and could vault to the top of the WR pecking order in KC with the departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason and the oft-injured Kadarius Toney already missing time with a knee issue. I’m passing on Deebo Samuel as a fourth-round pick and top-20 fantasy receiver. The San Francisco quarterback situation is unsettled as Brock Purdy tries to return from UCL surgery, and there are simply too many mouths to feed in the 49ers passing game. Plus, with Christian McCaffrey (and even Elijah Mitchell) in the backfield, Deebo isn’t getting anywhere close to the 59 carries and eight rushing touchdowns that buoyed his fantasy value in 2021.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
“Here is a bold prediction for you: Chris Olave is a 1st round pick in fantasy football for 2024. The kid is special, really special. Derek Carr coming to the Bayou should do wonders for Olave, the true #1 wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints. Is anyone that concerned about Michael Thomas? I am not, and you should not be either. Olave should see rises in every statistical category in 2023, especially touchdowns, where he only registered four a year ago. I will take the #1 receiver in Olave over the likes of Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins, two receivers who are entrenched as number two options in Miami and Cincy, barring injuries to the two superstars that are ahead of them in their respective depth charts.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET) and Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – BAL)
“(Current Expert ADP: Jameson Williams WR 51, Odell Beckham Jr. WR 62). For me, the WR with the most upside is a tie between Jameson Williams and Odell Beckham Jr. Jameson tore up the SEC- including one of the best college defenses ever assembled, Georgia Bulldogs, twice! Ringo’s comp – Jameson Williams reminds me of Randy Moss. As for Beckham, his three-finger catch versus Dallas is the best catch I’ve ever seen. Both the Lions and Ravens should score a bunch of TDs. With their current ADPs sitting at WR 51 and 62, respectively, even factoring in Jameson Williams’s six-game suspension to start the season, you’re getting elite talents for dirt cheap. Sleeper WRs above them I’m passing on: CeeDee Lamb (current ADP WR 6), Davante Adams (current ADP WR 9), Deebo Samuel (current ADP WR 18), Drake London (current ADP WR 23).”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
“It’s tough to find a wideout after the second round with more upside than DK Metcalf. His 22 end zone targets led the league last season, but he ended up on the wrong side of variance, converting just five to touchdowns. A little positive regression could go a long way for Metcalf, and leading the league in touchdown receptions is a realistic possibility for one of the most athletically gifted wideouts in the game. He is currently going after Tee Higgins and DeVonta Smith, but I prefer the upside of Metcalf, the true alpha of his offense.”
– Aaron Larson (FantasyPros)
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
“Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – There are several guys with better cases, but they all include “so-and-so getting injured.” Dotson just needs to stay healthy himself so that we can see the full potential he displayed as a rookie. If you take out the couple of games when he was coming back from injury and had his lowest snap and target counts, Dotson was on a 63-catch pace for a thousand yards and 13 touchdowns. If Sam Howell shows that he has even a little something as a thrower, we could see Dotson flourish in the Red Zone after hauling in seven touchdowns in just nine healthy games in 2022. He definitely brings more upside than either Steeler, George Pickens or Diontae Johnson.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Join our Discord to discuss dynasty trade opportunities with our analysts and community!
Which TE comes with the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP and which player(s) would you pass on with a higher ADP at his position?
Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN)
“He was a top-30 TE despite playing in just 10 games. Now Sean Payton gets to play with this athletic beast. He is a low-risk/high-upside play as TE15 right now, and I’d much prefer him over Cole Kmet, who should see TD regression in a run-heavy system.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)
“Greg Ducich flew under the radar a bit as a rookie, missing the first five games of the season with a hamstring injury. By the time he got going, Denver’s season was already floundering. He did, however, finish as a TE1 in six of the ten games he played to end the season. Tight ends naturally progress in their second season, and with Sean Payton already tagging Dulcich as the “Joker” in his offense, Dulcich has all the upside you look for in a late-round tight end. I prefer him over Dalton Schultz and Cole Kment, who may be safer but lack the upside I’m shooting for at the position.”
– Aaron Larson (FantasyPros)
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)
“Jake Ferguson has the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP. The Cowboys will be one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL this year and Dak Prescott has always targeted a tight end in a prominent role. With Dalton Schultz’s targets vacated, Ferguson is in line to receive a major boost in workload-a lot like Schultz did when he broke out in 2020 after Jason Witten left. Players I’d pass on for Ferguson: Cole Kmet, Dalton Kincaid, Irv Smith Jr.”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO)
“Juwan Johnson finished as the half-PPR TE11 in 2022 and gets an upgrade at quarterback this season with the arrival of Derek Carr, yet his ADP is languishing in the 13th or 14th round. With Alvin Kamara likely facing at least a four-game suspension and no significant additions to New Orleans’ receiving corp behind Chris Olave, Johnson is likely to be the #2 option in an improved Saints passing game. TJ Hockenson averaged 10.5 catches, 144 yards, and two touchdowns per game across two incredible contests in 2022. Over the rest of 15 regular-season games, he averaged 4.3 catches for 41.7 yards and scored a total of two touchdowns. The pass-friendly environment in Minnesota is appealing, but to me, Hockenson is closer to Evan Engram than Mark Andrews, and I’m not at all interested in him in at a fourth-round ADP.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
Editor’s Note: Since this note was written, the Saints signed veteran TE Jimmy Graham to a one-year deal.
Darren Waller (TE – NYG)
“There are significant health concerns with Waller, no question about it. Waller hasn’t played a full season since 2020 and is only getting older now at 31 years of age. The Giants failed to bring in a true number-one receiver this off-season, instead opting to trade for Waller. Waller should see plenty of looks, especially in the red zone, for the Giants with their lack of talent and size at the WR position. Despite tight end being generally gross again this year, despite all of our hopes it won’t be, I would still draft Waller at his current price over the likes of Dallas Goedert and even George Kittle, two options that don’t really enthuse me all that much. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“I’m passing on Dallas Goedert (ADP TE6) this season. Although fantasy production at the TE position seems hard to predict, the recipe is clear. You want TEs who are a top-two target on their team and are on a good offense. Although the Eagles are a great offense, they are not very pass-friendly. Last season Jalen Hurts only passed for 22 touchdowns and 18 of them went to A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith, so he isn’t a top target on the team either. I would rather take the chance on Darren Waller (ADP TE7) or even wait and hope Gerald Everett (ADP TE23) steps into the role Dalton Schultz played in Kellen Moore’s offense.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
” (current ADP Rank TE 10 Ringo’s rank TE 2) Njoku’s biggest strength is his athleticism- most notably his speed. He finally gets the chance to reach his potential by teaming up with an All-Pro QB in Deshaun Watson. Watson is the best QB he’s ever had. And remember, the Browns didn’t sign Watson for $230 million to hand the ball off. This combination has the potential for fantasy fireworks. TEs above him that I’m passing on: Darren Waller (current ADP TE 7) and Pat Freiermuth (current ADP TE 9).”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
“Kmet finished the year as TE7 in spite of producing just 20.8 half-PPR Fantasy Points through the first seven weeks of the season with two goose eggs. The Bears’ entire offense took a mid-season leap last year as Justin Fields became more comfortable running the show. Kmet was one of the biggest beneficiaries as he was the TE4 from Week 8 through the end of the season. Now, being drafted outside the Top 12 at the position, Kmet brings more upside than Chigoziem Okonkwo, David Njoku, or Pat Freiermuth.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio