2023 NFL Preseason DFS Picks: Hall of Fame Game (Jets vs. Browns)

2023 NFL Preseason DFS Picks: Hall of Fame Game (Jets vs. Browns)

NFL football is back! Oh, my lord! It’s back. It feels like we were shutting the door on the 2022 season just yesterday. It’s easy to say that now, after months and months of suffering through the offseason doldrums. Sniffing and clawing for any scrap of news to get excited about. Don’t worry. Now it’s information overload time, with injuries piling up and depth charts taking new shapes.

Let’s also enjoy the return of football with the return of preseason NFL DFS. I can’t wait to dust off my DraftKings app and sweat out this beautiful game.

Let’s build some lineups.

Fantasy Football Draft Kit

2023 NFL Preseason DFS Picks: Hall of Fame Game (Jets vs. Browns)

CLE -2 O/U 33.5

Head Coaching Tendencies

Robert Saleh: Last year, the Jets played their starters for two drives in Week 1 of the preseason. Zach Wilson was out there for 1.5 drives before he gave way to the Mike White show. I highly doubt we see Aaron Rodgers in this game, so cross him off your player list outside of throwing a random dart in a millimaker format. In 2021, with Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett tied at the hip, Rodgers didn’t play a snap in Week 1 of the preseason.

In that preseason, which is the last time we have data of the pairing in a preseason setting, Hackett called passes on 50.9% of the Packers’ preseason plays. He leaned on the ground game, especially in the red zone, with a 60% preseason red zone rushing rate. When the Jets get into scoring position in this game, don’t be surprised if they try to pound the rock across the goal line.

Kevin Stefanski: Deshaun Watson played three drives in Week 1 of the preseason last year before giving way to the backups. I doubt we see him that much in this game with an entire preseason and full practice schedule to ready himself for the regular season. The most interesting piece of info for the Browns and Kevin Stefanski has been his yearning to pass in the preseason. Last year, the Browns passed on 57.9% of their preseason plays while also throwing at a 53.5% clip inside the 20-yard line. This is a departure for a play caller we usually consider a run-game zealot.

*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com, unless otherwise specified.*

Quarterbacks

Jets (3) – Assuming Rodgers doesn’t suit up.

Zach Wilson: Wilson will probably be a popular player for DFS degens to click with the name cache attached. We could see Wilson get a quarter of action, but it’s also possible he only plays one-two series and gets pulled. I’ll be underweight on the Jets’ former wanna-be franchise passer. His numbers in the preseason have also been less than impressive, with only a 5.4 aDOT and one rushing attempt in his preseason career.

Tim Boyle: Tim Boyle is worth an MME sprinkle only. Boyle is a statue in the pocket with only 5.4 yards per attempt in his preseason career (195 pass attempts). He offers nothing with his legs, with only nine preseason rushing attempts for eight yards. The best thing Boyle has going for him is his familiarity with Hacket’s scheme (2019). In that preseason, he did post a 78.7 PFF passing grade with a 6:0 passing touchdown to interception ratio (57 passing attempts), so there is some slight intrigue.

Chris Streveler: Chris Streveler is the preseason king. He has been one of my favorite preseason quarterbacks to roster over the years and will be one of my favorite captains in this game. Streveler is a mobile quarterback who’s not afraid to push the ball down the field, which is a combination that can lead to preseason glory. Across his 63 preseason pass attempts the last two years, he has a 9.4 aDOT, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 6:1 passing touchdown to interception ratio. In five games, he has rushed 21 times for 130 yards with 6.1 yards per carry. If Wilson gets pulled early, we could see one-tw0 quarters of action for Boyle and Streveler. If Streveler gets two quarters of playing time, I’ll be surprised if he isn’t in the winning lineup.

Browns (2) – Deshaun Watson and Joshua Dobbs have been ruled out.

Kellen Mond:  Zac Jackson with the Athletic stated in his latest article that Mond could draw the start with Thompson-Robinson working behind him. That has been confirmed as the plan for this game. Mond is my third favorite quarterback in this game. With Mond looking at probably a full half of playing time, he will be popular. I understand why from a playing time perspective, but I’m fading him in this showdown slate. Mond has struggled in each of the last two preseasons. Last year he had the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate and the 18th-lowest passing grade (per PFF).

The only appealing part of Mond’s game is his rushing, and we have less of that in the NFL as time has progressed. In 2021 he averaged 4.3 rushing attempts and 24.3 rushing yards per game in preseason action. Last year Mond dropped to 1.7 rushing attempts and 2.7 rushing yards per game in the preseason. Woof!

Dorian Thompson-Robinson: Thompson-Robinson is a great captain play. The Brown’s new fifth-round rookie will get at least two quarters of playing time. He is my favorite quarterback in this game to roster. Thompson-Robinson has the prerequisite big-play potential that we seek in the preseason. He has 4.5 speed that carried him across the 600 rushing yard threshold in each of his final two seasons at UCLA. Thompson-Robinson can also deliver an accurate ball after ranking 11th in adjusted completion rate last year (per PFF). Streveler and Thompson-Robinson are my favorite quarterbacks in this game.

Running Backs

Jets (5) – Assuming Breece Hall doesn’t see the field.

Michael Carter: Michael Carter is the RB2 on the depth chart until Dalvin Cook is (possibly) signed. Considering he is the first back in the pecking order currently behind Hall, I doubt we will see much of Carter in this game. Carter’s playing time is likely tied to Zach Wilson. When Wilson exits, Carter probably calls it a night. That could be only two drives, which isn’t enough to worry about with Carter outside of MME and praying for a touchdown dive.

Zonovan Knight: Zonovan Knight has been getting equal run with Rodgers and the first team as Carter. He could be in for a short night, but with the deeper parts of the running back depth chart not quite 100%, it could be the Knight and Israel Abanikanda show. In his four games started last year, he averaged 12.8 rushing attempts while offering very little in the passing game. Still, he was a strong tackle-breaker, ranking third in elusive rating last year (minimum 80 carries, per PFF). Knight is one of my favorite backs in this game.

Israel Abanikanda: Israel Abanikanda is the Jets’ running back to have an interest in rostering in DFS in this game. Abanikanda has been working with the backups in camp. Nathaniel Hackett and Saleh could want to get a long look at their blazing fifth-round rookie in this game. Abanikanda is the type of player to overweight in preseason DFS. With his 82nd percentile speed score and 97th percentile burst score, he’s a threat to hit a home run anytime he touches the ball. Abanikanda ranked 36th in breakaway rate and 17th in runs of 15 or more yards in his finals season at Pittsburgh.

Damarea Crockett / Travis Dye: Damarea Crockett was signed on July 21 and could figure in as a depth piece for this team, but he likely doesn’t get much playing time in this contest. Crockett is a talented player that I will admit to still holding a “truther card.” Crockett tore his ACL last August and has had a quiet camp since joining the team, so I doubt we see him get many snaps.

Travis Dye is in the same camp, as he is working his way back from a serious knee injury (possible ACL tear) suffered in November of last year. Each player could surprise with some carries to salt away the clock late, but I expect most of the work for this backfield to go to Abanikanda in this game.

Browns (4) – I would be shocked if we saw Nick Chubb play a snap in this game. Jerome Ford has been out due to personal reasons.

John Kelly Jr.: With Chubb likely not playing and Ford’s availability up in the air (personal matter), John Kelly Jr. could get plenty of run. He’s been working as the RB2 with Ford out. Kelly Jr. played well last preseason, ranking 19th in yards after contact per attempt and second in elusive rating (per PFF). Kelly is a sufficient tackle breaker, but he’s not a home run threat, with only 11 runs of 10-plus yards across his 132 career preseason carries. We want snaps and volume, and Kelly could rack it up with 10-12 carries and goalline work.

Demetric Felton Jr.: Demetric Felton Jr. is a swiss army knife with a dull blade. He’s a wide receiver with a running back designation. Last preseason, he played 64.2% of his snaps in the slot or out wide. In that role, he has accrued a 24.4% target per route run rate over the last two seasons with a 1.58 yards per route run. Those are excellent numbers for a running back, but they’re more lackluster (especially the yards per route run) for a receiver. As a rusher, Felton only logged one carry last preseason. With his career preseason 2.62 yards after contact per attempt, I doubt he will get a ton of work as a back this preseason.

Hassan Hall: Zac Jackson with the Athletic has stated that we should expect to see a lot of Kelly Jr. and Hassan Hall in Thursday’s matchup. Hall is a 5’10” 190 lb back that can scoot with his 89th percentile burst score and 4.51 40-time. Hall has mustered 3.32 yards after contact per attempt or higher in each of the last two seasons in college, with a career 37.3% breakaway rate.

This is the perfect opportunity to get the UDFA rookie some work on the ground to see if he can provide depth in the backfield this year while also working as a kick returner. Hall opened his collegiate career at Louisville with 24.1 and 30.5 kick return averages in his first two seasons with two scores.

Nate McCrary: Nate McCrary has had a quiet camp so far and is not part of my player pool. Kelly Jr. and Hall are the favorites to get work in this game.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

Wide Receivers

Jets (8) – Garrett Wilson is banged up, so count him out. Allen Lazard & Corey Davis (illness) also likely out. Randall Cobb was activated from the PUP on 7/30, so he’s likely not playing as well.

Mecole Hardman: Mecole Hardman likely exits when Wilson does, so roster him at your own risk. If he only plays one-two drives and doesn’t break a long touchdown, you’ll wish you never clicked his name.

Irvin Charles: Irvin Charles is a name best avoided. He has flown under the radar with a quiet camp. His 4.71 40 speed and 14 career collegiate targets don’t inspire confidence. Cross him off your player list.

Jason Brownlee: Brownlee is the Jets’ wide receiver to circle for this game. Brownlee has been lighting it up in camp, even giving Sauce Gardner a run for his money on certain reps. With his 92nd percentile burst score and 6’2” frame, Brownlee amassed an 82nd percentile college dominator at Southern Miss. Over his final two seasons, he vacuumed up 28.9% and 33.7% target shares. Brownlee will be popular on this showdown slate, with his name making the rounds on social media. I’ll be slightly underweight with Brownlee because he will be mega chalk. I’ll still have some exposure with him in the flex, but in most instances in which he’s in my lineup, I’ll put him at captain.

Malik Taylor: Malik Taylor has had a rough camp so far. D.J. Reed and Gardner have been in his back pocket consistently. Indeed, Taylor won’t match up with anyone on that level in this game, so he’s worth considering in MME. Taylor splashed with a productive 2021 preseason with 2.50 yards per route run and an 85.3 receiving grade, so the talent is there.

Alex Erickson: Alex Erickson has carved out a long career as a stable depth receiver. His 1.24 career yards per route run isn’t amazing, but he’s dependable and can play the slot and win some outside. Erickson and Wilson have flashed rapport in camp, so if I’m rolling out Erickson in some lineups, I’ll stack him with Wilson, hoping that practice field magic makes its way into this game.

Jerome Kapp: Jerome Kapp stood out in rookie minicamp, earning a contract with the team. After a standout Division ll career, he’s fighting for a practice squad or end-of-the-roster spot. If Kapp gets into this game, it’s likely in the second half, so stacking him with Streveler makes the most sense.

T.J. Luther: T.J. Luther is a UDFA who has had a quiet camp. There are better darts to throw in this game than Luther.

Xavier Gipson: Xavier Gipson has had a few plus moments in camp. The 5’9″ slot standout at Stephen F. Austin finished his collegiate career with an eye-popping 3.41 yards per route run. With his 4.47 40 juice and 82nd percentile agility score, he could be the random deep name in this game that could house a shallow crosser. I’ll get him into at least a few lineups in my 150.

Browns (6) – Amari Cooper is dealing with an injury, so I don’t expect him to play. Continuing with the consistent trend of starters sitting out, I would be surprised if Elijah Moore and Donovan Peoples-Jones play. It won’t be longer than one or two drives if they do.

The Browns’ receiver depth chart is banged up currently. Each of these receivers is likely to skip this game or see only limited playing time:

Marquise Goodwin: Marquise Goodwin is currently dealing with multiple blood clots in his legs and lungs.

Jakeem Grant: Jakeem Grant is slowly ramping up in his recovery from an Achilles tear. He’s only practicing every other day.

Jaelon Darden: Jaelon Darden hasn’t practiced since sustaining an injury on July 29.

Mike Harley Jr.: Mike Harley Jr. has been in concussion protocol since July 27.

Austin Watkins: Austin Watkins was signed as a depth player on July 22.

Here are the Browns’ receivers to consider in your DFS lineups:

Cedric Tillman: Expect Cedric Tillman and Thompson-Robinson to rekindle their high school chemistry. Both players attended Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. They have been flashing a rapport in camp. I won’t be making any lineups with Thompson-Robinson without at least the thought of also including Tillman. The Browns’ talented third-round pick had an 81st-percentile collegiate target share at Tennessee.

David Bell: David Bell flopped badly in his rookie season, with only a 7.3% target share and 12.6% target per route run rate. With his 4.65 speed and inability to draw targets, I’ll let others roster him in hopes of a short score.

Anthony Schwartz: Anthony Schwartz and his 4.3 speed have been a ghost in the NFL. Per beat reports, he’s supposed to see a healthy snap share, so he should be in consideration for your lineups. The problem with Schwartz is that even playing time hasn’t equated to production. Over the last two preseasons, he’s only managed to haul in four of his 13 targets with 0.62 yards per route run. He looks like an easy fade, especially if he is popular, which is what I’m anticipating.

Michael Woods II: Michael Woods II has been silent as a church mouse all camp. With better options to consider in this passing attack, I’ll be fading him.

Daylen Baldwin: Daylen Baldwin has been flashing in camp with tough catches near the boundary and over the middle. With his 6’2″ frame, he produced 1.92 and 2.20 yards per route run over his final two seasons at Michigan.

Ra’Shaun Henry: Ra’Shaun Henry was a depth signing in June. He might play, but it’s equally possible he only logs a few special teams snaps.

2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Advice

Tight Ends

Jets (3) – Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah are too high on the depth chart to probably see any snaps in this game. The same might be possible for Jeremy Ruckert, who has been making noise in camp.

Zack Kuntz: Zack Kuntz will be popular, and for good reason. He’s a 6’7″, 255-pound behemoth who can run a 4.55 40. When Kuntz is on the field, he’ll be running routes, as blocking is not his strength. Kuntz is someone I’ll roster in small fields, but I’ll fade him in large fields.

Kenny Yeboah: Kenny Yeboah was hyped in some dynasty circles when he was a prospect, but I’ve never understood the allure. He only registered a 67th percentile college dominator, is undersized at 6’4″ and has speed and burst scores that are sub-55th percentile. Yeboah isn’t someone worth considering for your lineups.

E.J. Jenkins: E.J. Jenkins is a college wide receiver that the Jets are converting to tight end. As a collegiate receiver, he wasn’t impressive. He never managed a 60.0 receiving grade while also never crossing 1.1 yards per route run during his Georgia Tech career. Don’t play Jenkins.

Browns (2) – David Njoku won’t play much (if at all) in this game. Jordan Akins has been nursing a sore knee, so count him out as well. Harrison Bryant is also an entrenched veteran on this team and likely battling Akins for the TE2 spot. If Bryant plays, it won’t be much.

Zaire Mitchell-Paden: Zaire Mitchell-Paden is a blocking tight end. His 0.55 yards per route run and three targets last preseason don’t scream, “Roster me at captain.” Cross him off your player list.

Thomas Greaney: Thomas Greaney is a small school tight end (Albany) who will be limited with his 4.86 speed in the NFL. His receiving skills could play up in this setting, though, against other practice squad talents. With 700 receiving yards, 1.88 yards per route run, and an 86.1 PFF receiving grade last year, Greaney is a wonderful contrarian play/captain.

Defense/Kickers

In a DFS format where we covet snaps and playing time highly, defense and kickers are fantastic plays. In a game with a low total filled with backups, yes, the defense can rule the day. Don’t be afraid to fill out lineups with double D/ST or kickers (Cade York, Greg Zuerlein). It won’t surprise me if the winning lineup is filled with defenses and kickers and the right captain or flex play. Both kickers are even in terms of the likelihood of making the optimal.

If I’m picking one defense and kicker to play from this foursome, it would be the Jets’ defense and Greg Zuerlein. Mond is prone to bad decisions and turnovers. The Jets have two plus running backs in Knight and Abanikanda, that should carry the bulk of the work and have explosive play ability. Even if both offenses stink, I have more faith in New York’s ability to move the ball with their backs and Streveler.

Favorite Captain/Flex Plays:

Top Shelf: Chris Streveler, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Israel Abanikanda, Zonovan Knight, John Kelly Jr., Cedric Tillman, Browns D/ST, Jets D/ST, Jason Brownlee

Contrarian/Punt: Hassan Hall, Xavier Gipson, Daylen Baldwin, Zack Kuntz, Thomas Greaney, Greg Zuerlein, Cade York

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