It’s important to know who to target and who to pass on when it comes to your fantasy football draft. To better understand players to avoid and others to reach for, use our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and compare them to a player’s average draft position (ADP). Players going higher in ADP versus ECR are likely those you want to reconsider at their current cost. On the flipside, players that experts are higher on versus ADP are those that could be worth reaching for, or at least targeting at their current ADP.
And you can use our expert accuracy rankings to help determine which experts to select when you are building your custom fantasy football draft cheat sheets.
Here’s a look at players the experts are avoiding at their current ADP.
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Players to Avoid from Fantasy Football Experts
What one RB inside the top 100 in our consensus ADP do you plan on avoiding in all your drafts relative to their price and why?
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)
“Josh Jacobs finished first in touches last season. Holding this accolade is great the year that it happens, but dear lord does the history of RBs after leading the NFL touches create major concern for Jacobs after his breakout campaign. Because leading the NFL in touches is essentially the kiss of death for running backs the following year. Only 2 RBs have finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5. The other 7 running backs were essentially all season-long busts for one reason or another. Many of them got hurt, and the ones that stayed healthy underwhelmed dramatically. Historically speaking, the odds are not stacked in Jacobs’ favor to return fantasy RB1 value in 2023.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
“After what happened last year, can Cam Akers really be trusted? To me, there is too much risk involved with Akers, and although the Rams have talked him up this offseason, I need to see it to believe it. Sony Michel could also be a factor in goal-line situations. I would much rather go with James Conner, who is 11 spots below Akers in the current ADP.”
– Justin Fuhr (Pro Football Mania)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“I’m avoiding Breece Hall at his current cost (29 ADP). Not only is he coming off a torn ACL, but the Jets have been rumored to be in the mix for Dalvin Cook. This comes after they showed interest in Jahmyr Gibbs during the draft. While Hall is the total package at RB, losing touches to Cook while returning from a torn ACL would be a bad combination.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs is currently being drafted as the RB15 (37th Overall), which, if it holds, will be just a little too rich for my blood. For him to return on the value in which he is currently coming off the board, he would have to replicate, to a degree, the rookie season that Christian McCaffrey had. In 2017, he finished as the RB10 due in large part to his 80 receptions that year. Now, if we assume that Gibbs takes over the D’Andre Swift role in Detroit, he would have to greatly improve the career high for Swift, which was 62 in 2021. Also, add that David Montgomery is likely to take away most of the high-leverage touches inside the red zone, and you find yourself taking Gibbs at his ceiling in drafts, if not slightly above it.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
Rachaad White (RB – TB)
“This won’t be the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense anymore. White may have the backfield to himself for now, but he showed in Year 1 that he isn’t anything special. While he profiles as a receiving back, White had below a 70 PFF receiving grade, finished 24th in yards per route run among RBs with 24+ targets, and was 35th among RBs in yards created per touch. His rushing stats didn’t fare much better during his rookie campaign, finishing 65th among RBs with 3.6 true yards per carry and 44th with a 3.1% breakaway run rate. White feels like a younger version of his backfield mate, Chase Edmonds, who was a trap at ADP in 2022 and went around the same ADP as White is going this year. With the Bucs projected to be bad this year, White may struggle to find goal line opportunities to salvage inefficient running and receiving games. Draft at your own risk.”
– Bradley Stalder (FantasyData)
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
“Javonte Williams suffered severe injuries to his ACL, LCL, and PCL ligaments during the 2022 season, which gives me doubts about his current ECR of RB29. Historical data indicates that running backs typically experience reduced performance in their first year after ACL surgery. Given the complexity of Williams’ injury, concerns arise regarding his readiness for the start of the season and his efficiency thereafter. Therefore, fantasy managers should exercise caution when considering Williams in drafts, as it is more likely that he will underperform in his first year following surgery. Over the past two decades, there have been very few success stories of running backs returning to peak performance after an ACL tear.”
– Billy Muzio (PlayerProfiler)
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
“Alexander Mattison is the classic dead-zone back I’m avoiding. In the case of Mattison, drafters are betting on volume and Mattison being the same player weekly that has steamrolled the Lions in numerous spot starts. The reality is Mattison’s yards after contact per attempt have fallen in each of the last four seasons, while his yards per route run has dropped every year since 2020. Minnesota has talented backs behind Mattison that could carve into his playing time or outright steal the job by midseason.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI)
“D’Andre Swift seemingly had a soft landing in Philadelphia after the Lions spent the 12th pick of the NFL Draft on his replacement, Jahmyr Gibbs, but the fit for Swift seems less than ideal. The Eagles have a potent offense and a terrific offensive line, and the Philadelphia offense has a heavy tilt toward the run. But Swift isn’t a good inside runner, so Rashaad Penny is the favorite for early-down work in Philly, and Kenneth Gainwell will be involved, too. Swift’s pass-catching ability generates much of his fantasy value, and the Eagles don’t use their RBs much in the passing game. Detroit RBs were targeted at the 11th-highest rate in the league last year, with Swift drawing 70 of the Lions’ 115 RB targets. Eagles RBs were targeted at the lowest rate in the league last season, drawing a league-low 61 targets. Swift’s ADP puts him in the neighborhood of some WRs (Michael Pittman, Brandon Aiyuk), TEs (George Kittle, Kyle Pitts) and other RBs (Cam Akers, Rachaad White) I like, so it’s unlikely he’ll be on any of my redraft rosters.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
“Dameon Pierce, in the middle of round five to me, is someone I’m avoiding in many of my drafts. I think the signing of Devin Singletary will affect Peirce more than most realize. Pierce was good in 2022 due to having the backfield to himself, and we saw that he started to wear down as the season went on. I’ll pass on Pierce and grab Rachaad White or Alexander Mattison a few rounds later for an RB2.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
What one WR inside the top 100 in our consensus ADP do you plan on avoiding in all your drafts relative to their price and why?
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
“DeVonta Smith was the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game, and he ended the year as the WR16 in points per game. So why is he drafted as the WR12 overall? Before Dallas Goedert‘s injury in Week 10, Smith was averaging fewer than ten fantasy points per game (9.7). He was the WR29 overall. But after Goedert was sidelined from Weeks 11-15, Smith went en fuego finishing the season (Weeks 11 through 18) as the WR5. The Slim Reaper was averaging 15 points per game in half-point scoring. His current ranking is too heavily weighing his production when Goedert missed time in the second half of the season.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)
“After a 1-year suspension, Calvin Ridley is set to return, but will he be the same player? Before his suspension, Ridley was an upper-echelon wide receiver. The problem is we don’t yet know if we are getting the same version of Ridley. Add that to the fact that he will be adjusting to a new quarterback and offense. Instead, give me the always-reliable Terry McLaurin, who is 3 spots lower in the current ADP.”
– Justin Fuhr (Pro Football Mania)
“The last time we saw Calvin Ridley was during Week 7 of the 2021 season against the Miami Dolphins. Following that, he stepped away from football to prioritize his mental health for the remainder of the season. Then, in 2022, Ridley was suspended for the entire season for his involvement in NFL sports betting. Now he’s 28.5 years old and joins the Jacksonville Jaguars, where he will be part of a crowded receiving corps that includes Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones. He is in a new division, with a new head coach, a new quarterback, and a new offensive system that he will have to adapt to; Ridley’s performance is uncertain. Additionally, he has only surpassed the 1,000-yard mark and received 100 targets once, which raises even more concerns. As the ECR WR 20, there are several red flags surrounding Ridley that cannot be ignored.”
– Billy Muzio (PlayerProfiler)
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
“I’m not looking to draft Christian Watson at his current price (54 ADP). While he showed flashes of brilliance last season, the uncertainty around Jordan Love gives me some pause. I also prefer other wideouts at this price, like Christian Kirk, who will be in a pass-heavy offense in Jacksonville.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)
Mike Evans (WR – TB)
“Buccaneers WR Mike Evans has been the model of consistency during his tenure in Tampa Bay as he has been over 1,000 yards receiving in each season since entering the league. Now that Tom Brady has officially retired, the Buccaneers’ offensive success will hinge upon either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. This should leave fantasy managers with a very uneasy feeling in the pits of their stomachs during the draft if Evans’ ADP holds at its current price tag (WR31 – 72nd Overall). I’m expecting this to become the worst season of his career to date as he falls below 1,000 yards receiving for the first time, and his scoring potential to be quite limited. Once all factors are added in, you’re going to be looking at a receiver that will be maddeningly inconsistent on a weekly basis and a fantasy points per game that could land him as a low-end WR3 by year’s end. ”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
“Mike Evans looks like he’s finally hit the wall. Last year he was 33rd in yards per route run, 35th in route win rate, and 47th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Even if we attempt to ignore these nasty figures, a quarterback depth chart with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask contending for the top spot immediately curls the toes and turns the stomach. I’m avoiding Evans in every format imaginable. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Adam Thielen (WR – CAR)
“We saw the signs, and so did the Minnesota Vikings: Adam Thielen is dust. Even though Thielen signed a 3-year, $25 Million contract with the Carolina Panthers, including $14 Million guaranteed, he is a major avoid for fantasy purposes coming off his worst fantasy points per game season since 2015. Thielen finished 60th of 80 WRs in PFF receiving grade and 75th of 80 WRs in yards per route run. He no longer commanded targets, finishing 78th among WRs in target rate (17.2%), down from the 26% and 27% rates he hit as a Pro Bowler in 2017 and 2018. Thielen will turn 33 here in a few months, is on the wrong side of the age cliff, and no longer possesses elite play-making ability. ”
– Bradley Stalder (FantasyData)
George Pickens (WR – PIT)
“George Pickens made some memorably acrobatic catches as a rookie and averaged an impressive 9.5 yards per target last season, but his inability to draw targets is concerning. Pickens had a 15.3% target share as a rookie. He didn’t have more than eight targets in any game, and he didn’t have more than six targets in any game from Week 6 on. Pickens was also near the bottom of the WR rankings in separation last year, per Next Gen Stats, and he averaged only 2.0 yards after the catch. The contested catches are impressive, but when a receiver is making a lot of contested catches, it can be a symptom of not getting a lot of separation. Pickens’ anemic target rate is an indication that’s the case here. Let your competitors take Pickens at his seventh-round ADP and wait for him to become a more reliable target earner.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
“Michael Pittman is someone I’m actively avoiding in 2023 in all drafts. Eventually, Anthony Richardson will be the starter in 2023, and we aren’t going to see a very polished passer so early on. The recent trend of early raw mobile quarterbacks has been bad for receivers. Pittman has more competition for targets than he ever has had in his career. The team will likely get back to running the ball, and I’d like the young rookie quarterback to run more than throw. It’s going to be a challenging year for Pittman. ”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
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