The 2023 NFL season is still several weeks away. However, training camps are underway, meaning the fantasy football redraft season is just around the corner. Therefore, now is the time to prepare for your fantasy drafts.
While there are several strategies you can use during your fantasy draft, finding the best value in every round is critical regardless of which you deploy. So let’s look at the best value in each of the top 16 rounds in a 12-team, 1QB, half-point PPR redraft league.
Redraft ADP Value by Round (2023 Fantasy Football)
Taylor was the RB6 as a rookie before ending the 2021 season as the overall RB1. Unfortunately, the superstar struggled with injuries last year, missing six games because of multiple ankle sprains. However, Taylor still finished as the RB10 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 13.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game if you remove the contests he left early with an injury.
Meanwhile, head coach Shane Steichen was part of a Philadelphia Eagles’ offense that was one of two teams to finish top 10 in rushing and passing yards per game last season. Taylor should be a top-five pick and get drafted ahead of Saquon Barkley and Tyreek Hill.
Last year Pollard was a popular breakout candidate. Despite having an ADP outside the top-24 running backs, the former Memphis star ended the year as the RB7, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Pollard had his first career 1,000-yard rushing season last season. Furthermore, the star running back had 10 career touchdowns entering the year but had 12 in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott this offseason after placing the franchise tag on the former Memphis star. While Dallas hasn’t closed the door on a Zeke reunion, it seems unlikely. Even if the veteran returns, Pollard still has top-five upside.
Fantasy players that start their draft with back-to-back running backs should target Olave in the third round. Last year the rookie was the WR25, averaging 10.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite catching passes from Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. Thankfully New Orleans signed Derek Carr this offseason.
While the veteran isn’t an elite quarterback, he is a significant upgrade over the options from last year. Meanwhile, Olave joined Garrett Wilson as the only two rookies with over 1,000 receiving yards in 2022. Yet, Wilson is getting drafted nearly a full round earlier. Unless Michael Thomas can miraculously stay healthy this season, Olave could lead the NFL in target share.
Sanders had an awful 2021 season, as he didn’t score a single touchdown despite having 163 touches. However, the former Penn State star bounced back last year, finishing the season as the RB13, averaging 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran had 11 rushing touchdowns after having only nine over the first three years of his career.
Meanwhile, Sanders will have more upside with the Panthers now that his quarterback won’t steal goal-line work from him. More importantly, running backs averaged 116.5 targets per season in the four full years Frank Reich was with the Indianapolis Colts. Fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised when Sanders has a career year in the passing game.
There are two types of fantasy players with Akers – lovers and haters. Thankfully the haters have kept the running back’s ADP lower than it should be. While the veteran had a season of two halves, Akers ended the 2022 season on fire. He was the RB2 over the final four weeks, averaging 18.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.
Furthermore, the former Florida State star forced a missed tackle on 22.7% of his rushing attempts in those four contests. More importantly, the Rams didn’t do anything to threaten Akers’ featured role this year. The fact that he is getting drafted behind J.K. Dobbins and Dalvin Cook is disgusting.
Many will refuse to draft the veteran running back purely because of his name, age, or the team he plays for. However, Conner is one of my favorite middle-round running backs to target this year. The Cardinals didn’t add any competition this offseason, leaving the veteran as one of the few featured running backs in the NFL.
More importantly, he was outstanding to the end of last season, averaging 21.3 touches and 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over his final seven games. Conner is likely heading into his final year with the team. Therefore Arizona has no reason not to run the veteran into the ground, which is outstanding for fantasy players.
The Cardinals have one of the worst wide receiver cores in the NFL. However, that is good news for Brown. The former Oklahoma star was the WR6, averaging 14.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the first six weeks last year with DeAndre Hopkins suspended. Furthermore, Brown averaged 9.6 targets and 12.3 fantasy points per game in the eight games without Hopkins last season, averaging 1.64 yards per route run during those contests.
More importantly, he averaged seven targets per game in the five contests without Kyler Murray. Arizona will be chasing points most of the year, creating plenty of fantasy opportunities for the veteran wide receiver.
Unfortunately, Johnson was the WR39 last year, averaging 8.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game after not scoring a touchdown. However, the veteran finished seventh in the NFL with 147 targets (8.7 per game). More importantly, Johnson’s 27% target share was the 13th-highest among wide receivers last season.
While the lack of touchdowns last year is a concern, Johnson averaged 6.7 receiving scores over the first three seasons of his career. The veteran’s ADP has risen over the past several weeks. Yet, Johnson is still a steal as the 34th wide receiver off the board.
Last year’s rookie class had several talented wide receivers. While others got most of the attention, Dotson quietly led all rookies in receiving touchdowns (seven) despite missing five games and playing several others limited. Removing his first three games back from a nagging hamstring injury (where he played under 67% of the snaps in every matchup), the former Penn State would have averaged 12.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season.
Over a 17-game pace, the rookie would have been the WR11 with that average. While the former Penn State star won’t replace Terry McLaurin as the top receiver, expect a sophomore-year breakout from Dotson.
The rookie running back is stuck in no man’s land right now. Achane’s fantasy value plummets if the Dolphins sign Dalvin Cook. However, he could be this year’s Dameon Pierce if the team doesn’t add any competition. Last year the Miami backfield scored 352.2 half-point PPR fantasy points. If one player had only 60% of that production, he would have been the RB12 in 2022 and the RB8 the year before.
He would have been the RB8 last season and the RB6 in 2021 with 65% of that production. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. shouldn’t keep the rookie off the field. Achane will be a steal at his ADP if he earns 60% of the backfield work.
Everyone had high expectations for the former Ole Miss Stat after the strong finish to his rookie year. Moore was the WR2 over his final five games in 2021, averaging 17.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Sadly his sophomore season was a nightmare. The second-year player couldn’t earn consistent snaps and asked for a trade.
While the New York Jets refused, they sent the receiver to the Browns this offseason. Reportedly Moore has been the star of the offseason in Cleveland. Furthermore, he had become a go-to target for Deshaun Watson. There is no reason for Odell Beckham Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Jameson Williams to come off the board before the former Ole Miss star.
Wilson is one of my favorite double-digit round quarterbacks to target this year. His first season in Denver was a disaster, throwing only 16 touchdowns. Furthermore, he was the QB16, averaging 15 fantasy points per game, the lowest of his career. However, the veteran played better to end the year. Wilson averaged two passing touchdowns and 20.1 fantasy points per game over his final four contests.
More importantly, he had 505 passing yards and six total touchdowns in the two matchups after the team fired Nathaniel Hackett, averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game. The veteran quarterback has reportedly played well during the offseason programming and should have a bounce-back season with Sean Payton on the sidelines.
Last year the fourth-round rookie wide receiver was a popular sleeper candidate after an impressive training camp and preseason performance. However, Doubs was only the WR76, averaging 6.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, the former Nevada star averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game before suffering a severe ankle injury in Week 9.
While the Green Bay receiving core saw their fantasy value drop after the team traded away Aaron Rodgers, Doubs has reportedly been Jordan Love‘s go-to receiving during offseason programming. He won’t replace Christian Watson as the No. 1 wide receiver, but Doubs is the better draft value.
The former Western Michigan star was a popular rookie pick last year. However, Moore had a disappointing 2022 season, averaging only two half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The rookie finished fourth in targets and fifth in routes route among the Chiefs’ wide receivers. Yet, the second-year player has been the talk of the offseason programming in Kansas City.
Andy Reid said the team has high expectations for Moore. Meanwhile, Kadarius Toney recently underwent knee surgery, putting his Week 1 status in doubt. Moore is the only Chiefs wide receiver that fantasy players should draft this year.
New Orleans recently brought back Jimmy Graham despite the veteran turning 37 in November and not playing last season. The last time he had more than 460 receiving yards in a season was in 2018. Graham is more likely not to make the final roster than have any fantasy impact this year. Meanwhile, Johnson led the Saints in receiving touchdowns while finishing top three in receiving yards and targets last season. Furthermore, he finished third among tight ends in receiving touchdowns.
While New Orleans brought back Michael Thomas, the veteran is unlikely to stay healthy. More importantly, Darren Waller was Derek Carr’s favorite weapon in Las Vegas. Johnson could quickly build the same connection with the veteran quarterback.
After losing Miles Sanders this offseason, Philadelphia signed Rashaad Penny and traded for D’Andre Swift. However, the veteran running backs are arguably the two most injury-prone players in the NFL. Penny has missed nearly half of the matchups in his career because of various injuries. Meanwhile, Swift can’t handle a full workload without getting hurt.
Their injury history opens the door for Gainwell to have an expanded role this season. The best thing fantasy players can do with the final draft pick is shoot for the most upside possible. Gainwell has two injury-prone running backs ahead of him on the depth chart and could find himself the starter at some point in 2023.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
