Here are some players I’m most eager to draft in 2023. Please note that this is a revised version of an earlier article. Some of the names remain the same, but others have changed as I’ve participated in more drafts and have found myself drawn to some different players at their price points.
Fitz’s Top Draft Targets (2023 Fantasy Football)
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
In recent years I’ve been a cheapskate when it comes to drafting quarterbacks. Spending down always seemed like the smart way to go. Not this year. I think it makes a lot of sense to draft a top-9 quarterback in redraft leagues, and I’ve been drawn to two in particular. Jackson is quite possibly the best running quarterback to ever play in the NFL, and there’s reason to believe he could boost his passing production back to where it was in 2019, when Jackson threw 36 TD passes and averaged an obscene 28.1 fantasy points per game. Jackson will be working with the most talented group of wide receivers he’s ever had — Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round rookie Zay Flowers — and he still has one of the best tight ends in the game in Mark Andrews. For nearly all of his professional career, Jackson has had the run-loving Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator. Todd Monken is the Ravens’ new play caller, and not only is he much fonder of the forward pass than Roman is, but Monken’s offenses have also moved at a much faster pace than Roman’s have. A faster pace means more plays per game. More plays per game means more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Justin Fields (CHI)
He ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns last year, but Fields is going later than he should in most early drafts, possibly because people aren’t sure what sort of quarterback he will be. Fields may never again match last season’s 160 rushing attempts, but there’s untapped passing upside for a quarterback who threw for more than 200 yards only twice in 15 starts last season and never had more than 28 pass attempts in any game. It’s not hard to imagine Fields following the Jalen Hurts career path, where excellence as a runner is established early, and proficiency as a passer soon follows.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
So many people are terrified to draft Taylor because of the contract-related feud pitting Taylor and his agent against Colts owner Jim Irsay and the Indy front office. But all of the acrimony has created a buying opportunity, and you can now scoop up one of the two or three best pure runners in football as late as the third round. The standoff with the Colts is worrisome, no question. Maybe Taylor gets traded. Maybe he stays in Indy. But it’s hard to envision this leading to a Le’Veon Bell-type holdout that completely torpedoes Taylor’s season. Bell was never the same after missing a full season. The Bell precedent was a stark warning to NFL running backs about the dangers of a season-long holdout.
The consensus No. 1 pick in 2022 fantasy drafts, Taylor disappointed investors last season due largely to ankle problems that caused him to miss six games and clearly hindered him in several others. Forget about last year’s letdown and try to remember that Taylor scored 32 touchdowns in his first 32 NFL games. He led the league in rushing in 2021 and averaged 127.7 yards from scrimmage per game that season.
Rookie QB Anthony Richardson’s rushing ability could give Taylor’s efficiency a turbo boost since defenses will have to honor the possibility of Richardson keeping the ball on run-pass options (RPOs) and running himself. Imagine being a linebacker, seeing Richardson tuck the ball into Taylor’s breadbasket and having to discern whether the speedy, 244-pound Richardson is actually handing the ball off or keeping it and running himself. One false move, and either Taylor or Richardson is presented with a gaping hole in the defense.
Fade all the pessimism; I love Taylor’s outlook for 2023.
Najee Harris (PIT)
After finishing RB3 in PPR scoring as a rookie, Harris slipped to RB14 last year. A sprained Lisfranc might have had something to do with it. Harris didn’t miss any games, but he didn’t seem to be 100% early in the season. He averaged 59.1 yards from scrimmage over the first eight games of the season and 87.8 yards from scrimmage over his last nine.
A powerful, durable and versatile back, Harris has averaged 20.4 touches a game over his first two seasons. The Steelers haven’t put good offensive lines in front of Harris in his first two seasons. Still, Pittsburgh made significant improvements to that unit in the offseason, signing OGs Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig and trading up to draft OT Broderick Jones in the first round. We could get a big bounce-back season from Najee in 2023.
Cam Akers (LAR)
Akers led the NFL in rushing over the final six weeks of the 2022 regular season and ranked RB4 in half-point point per reception (PPR) scoring over that stretch. He had more than 100 rushing yards in each of his last three games. Now two years removed from the torn Achilles that wiped out most of his 2021 season, Akers doesn’t have much in-house competition for carries, and the Rams’ 2023 schedule is littered with opponents that had mediocre run defenses last year.
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
Commanders head coach Ron Rivera has been talking about wanting to get Gibson more involved in the Washington offense this year. Talk is cheap, but perhaps Washington’s new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, will be fonder of Gibson than former Washington OC Scott Turner seemed to be.
Gibson is as big and as fast as Jonathan Taylor and has extensive pass-catching experience as a converted college wide receiver. Gibson also scored double-digit touchdowns in each of his first two NFL seasons despite playing in a limited offense. With J.D. McKissic no longer on the Commanders’ roster, Gibson figures to see a lot more action on passing downs.
De’Von Achane (MIA)
The rookie from Texas A&M posted a 4.32-second 40 time at the NFL Scouting Combine, and he’s run the 200 meters in 20.2 seconds for the Texas A&M track team. Achane’s 5-foot-9, 188-pound frame will scare off some fantasy managers, but Achane averaged 23.4 touches per game for the Aggies last fall and was routinely asked to run between the tackles. His exceptional contact balance reminds me of Warrick Dunn, a 5-foot-9, 180-pound back who excelled as a pass catcher for the Buccaneers and Falcons in the ’90s and ’00s but also had eight seasons with more than 200 carries. Achane should fit nicely into Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone running scheme.
It’s possible the Dolphins bring Achane along slowly — they played him behind Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed in their first preseason game — but Achane has talent and fantasy potential that no other Miami RB comes close to matching.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave (NO)
Olave had a promising rookie campaign in 2022, catching 72 passes for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns on 119 targets. His target share in the 15 games he played was 26.6%. Olave is an advanced route runner, and there’s reason to believe new Saints QB Derek Carr will make better use of Olave’s sub-4.4 speed than Andy Dalton did last season.
According to Pro Football Reference, Carr averaged 9.1 intended air yards per pass attempt last season, the fourth-highest in the league. Dalton averaged 7.9 intended air yards per pass attempt last season. Carr posted a 95.8 passer rating on throws of 20+ yards last season, 13th among QBs with at least 300 pass attempts. Dalton had a passer rating of 84.5 on such throws.
Drake London (ATL)
As a rookie, London had a 29.4% target share. He also had a 32.4% target rate, meaning he was targeted on 32.4 of all his pass routes and averaged 2.07 yards per route run. Yes, London’s target share spiked after TE Kyle Pitts got hurt during the latter part of the season. But there’s really no one in the Atlanta offense other than London and Pitts who will see a lot of targets this year. And London is just scratching the surface of his abilities. He turns 22 later this month, and London wasn’t even of legal drinking age when he showed up at the Falcons’ training camp a year ago.
Christian Watson (GB)
Some people contend that Watson is being overrated because a large percentage of his 2022 fantasy scoring came from a small handful of big plays. On the other hand, we should probably expect a disproportionate number of big plays from a 6-foot-4 receiver with the wingspan of a pterodactyl and 4.36 speed. Watson scored seven touchdowns over a four-game stretch last season — a scoring barrage that illustrates the young receiver’s vast upside.
As my colleague Andrew Erickson noted while listing Watson among his favorite draft targets, the Green Bay receiver’s 26% target rate per route run ranked 17th among all WRs with at least 400 snaps, and Watson’s 2.47 yards per route run ranked inside the top 10, tying Davante Adams.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
There’s a case to be made that we should be selecting Aiyuk ahead of teammate Deebo Samuel, even though that hasn’t been happening in early 2023 fantasy drafts. As noted by Josh Larky of The 33rd Team, from the time Christian McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7 on 2022 through the end of the regular season, Aiyuk averaged 13.8 PPR fantasy points per game and had a 23.0% target share. Deebo averaged 11.0 PPR points per game and had a 21.2% target share. Deebo is a short-area receiver used close to the line of scrimmage. Aiyuk is a more traditional receiver who challenges defenses downfield.
Beat reporters for the 49ers have been raving about Aiyuk’s performance in training camp, with one going so far as to call him “unguardable.” I’m buying.
Jahan Dotson (WAS)
Dotson had only 35 catches for 523 yards as a rookie, but he scored seven touchdowns despite playing just 12 games, and he had five weeks in which he was a top-20 fantasy scorer at the WR position. Dotson has 4.43 speed, is terrific in contested-catch situations despite being 5-foot-11 and 181 pounds, and is elusive after the catch. If your competitors fade Dotson because of Washington’s uncertain QB situation, capitalize on the opportunity to get an exciting young receiver at a discount.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
After catching 60 passes for 497 yards as a rookie, Freiermuth had 63 receptions for 732 yards last year. His average depth of target went from 5.3 yards in 2021 to 8.3 yards in 2022, and his yards per target jumped from 6.3 to 7.5. The only category in which “Muth” fell off last year was touchdowns. He scored seven times as a rookie but only reached the end zone twice in 2022, so we should probably expect a bounce. I generally prefer to draft an elite tight end or go dumpster-diving at the position, but Freiermuth is one of the few middle-class TEs who’s appealing at his price point.
Jake Ferguson (DAL)
Deep-sleeper alert! Ferguson won’t be drafted in smaller leagues, but he seems destined for fantasy relevance as the replacement for the departed Dalton Schultz in Dallas. The Cowboys spent a second-round pick on TE Luke Schoonmaker, but Ferguson was a better and more prolific pass catcher in college than Schoonmaker was, and Ferguson played every snap with the starters in the Cowboys’ first preseason game. Schultz provided sneaky value for fantasy managers the last three years, and Ferguson could do the same in 2023.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
